2012 Fantasy Football Draft Tips
Gearing up for your 2012 fantasy football draft? You've come to the right place! DraftSharks.com has a few tips for you on your big day. Some of these pointers are specific to this season, while others are good rules to follow in any year.
By Jared Smola, DraftSharks.com
Fantasy Football Draft Tips - #1
Last year's stats don't equal this year's stats - This one sounds simple enough, but many people put too much weight on a player's previous season. Just because Mike Tolbert finished 2010 as the 19th best RB or Steve Johnson as the 10th best WR does not mean these guys should be drafted among the elite at their positions. A lot changes from year to year. Do your research, examine trends, and then determine what each player's value is for this season when putting together your fantasy football rankings.
Fantasy Football Draft Tips - #2
Wait on a QB - While QB is one of the most important positions on the field for NFL franchises, the position is not as crucial in fantasy football. From 2008-20010, the average difference between the #1 QB (a standard league's best starting QB) and the #12 QB (a standard league's worst starting QB) was 5.8 points per game. The average difference over the same time span between the #1 (best starter) and #24 (worst starter) RBs was 10.9 points per game and the difference between the #1 and #36 WRs was 6.8 points per game. In short, because more RBs and WRs are in starting lineups each week, the value of a top RB or WR is much greater than that of an elite QB. Simple supply and demand.
Fantasy Football Draft Tips - #3
RBBCs have created more RB depth - The dreaded running-back-by-committee has taken the NFL by storm. In 2000, 23 RBs rushed for at least 1,000 yards. Only 17 RBs accomplished that feat last year. Rushing yards aren't disappearing. They are just being distributed to a greater number of RBs. 39 RBs rushed for 500+ yards in 2010, while just 33 did so in 2000. The rise of the RBBC has led to fewer stud RBs but far more serviceable ones. Consequently, fantasy owners no longer need to grab 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds of their drafts. Don't be afraid to grab 2 of the top-10 WRs and then select a guy like Jahvid Best or LeGarrette Blount as your 2nd RB in the 4th or 5th round.
Fantasy Football Draft Tips - #4
The TE position is as deep as ever - Antonio Gates' huge season -- coupled with injuries to guys like Jermichael Finley and Dallas Clark -- made this a moot point in 2010. Gates was a serious weapon, outscoring the #2 TE by an average of 4 points per game. But that doesn't change the fact that waiting until the later rounds for your TE is a viable strategy. Thanks to an influx of talented, young TEs, the position is incredibly deep. If you think Gates will repeat his big 2010 season this coming year, go ahead and grab him in the 4th-round. But the smarter play is to load up on RBs and WRs, and then grab a rock-solid guy like Chris Cooley or Dustin Keller in the 8th or 9th-round.
Fantasy Football Draft Tips - #5
Worry about weather - When deciding between 2 similar players, take the climate they play in into account. Draft QBs and WRs who play in warm weather or domes. Even in his ridiculous 2007 season, Tom Brady was held back by blustery conditions in Foxboro at the tail end of the year. Many fantasy football playoff games are lost due to games played in wintry conditions. Don't knock guys who play in cold weather too far down your cheat sheet, but start to take weather into account when you get into the middle rounds of your draft.
Fantasy Football Draft Tips - #6
Draft for upside in the later rounds - Go big or go home! When you are looking for your 4th RB or 5th WR, there is little reason to take a guy like Cadillac Williams or Michael Jenkins. Instead, draft a boom or bust type (Demaryius Thomas, for example). If he ends up being a bust, you can always drop him if need be. If he pans out though, you'll look like a genius.
Fantasy Football Draft Tips - #7
Wait until the last 2 rounds to draft a K and DEF - There are a couple of reasons for this. First, like QBs, each team in your league likely starts just 1 K and 1 DEF. That means the demand for each position is low. Second, the turnover at these two positions is so great that drafting them is almost a crap shoot. There will always be a K or DEF on the waiver wire that will finish the year in the top-10. Load up on all other positions, and then take a stab at a K and a DEF with your last 2 picks.
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