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Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

 

Is There a Better Feeling Than Nailing a Fantasy Football Sleeper?

You get a few puzzled looks from your leaguemates when you draft him.

By November, that same guy is dumping fantasy points on your opponents.

There are lots of ways to define a fantasy football sleeper. We’re going with any player typically available in the double-digit rounds of drafts.

But the key point is -- these guys are set to return big value for your fantasy team as late-round picks.

Without further ado, here are our seven favorite 2024 fantasy football sleepers.

    

QB Sleepers

Jayden Daniels, Rookie

Born to Score Fantasy Points

Daniels has yet to play an NFL snap. We don’t even know which team he’ll be suiting up for in 2024.

So how can we already feel confident in tabbing him a fantasy football sleeper?

Because Daniels’ college profile suggests he’ll be excellent in two areas that are key for QB fantasy production: Deep passing and running.

Deep-Ball Prowess Adds Upside

Daniels led all 125 qualifying FBS QBs with a huge 11.5 yards per pass attempt last year.

He was deadly throwing deep, completing 35 of 55 passes 20+ yards downfield for 1,347 yards, 22 TDs, and 0 INTs.

Daniels led the FBS in throws 20+ yards downfield in all of these categories:

An Elite Runner

Daniels also racked up 1,134 rushing yards with 10 TDs in his Heisman-winning 2023 campaign.

And if we remove the negative yardage from sacks taken, Daniels climbs to 1,250 rushing yards on 10.4 yards per carry. 

Explosive as any QB we’ve seen since at least Lamar Jackson, Daniels had eight runs of 15+ yards last year, including this 85-yard TD vs. Florida.

How High is the Fantasy Ceiling?

We’ll see exactly where Daniels lands in this spring’s draft, but he’s widely expected to be a top-3 pick.

If he gets that type of draft capital, he’ll likely start most or all of the season. 12 of the 15 QBs picked with a top-3 selection over the past 10 years have started at least 12 games as rookies.

And when Daniels is on the field, he’ll be a good bet for top-10 fantasy production, with upside well beyond that.

Of 31 QBs with 500+ rushing yards in a season over the last 10 years:

 

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Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

Encouraging Rookie Season

Levis made eight starts last year from weeks 8 to 15, ranking a solid 15th among QBs in fantasy points during that stretch.

He did it despite …

Levis’ environment looks much more fantasy-friendly heading into 2024.

More Pass Volume Coming in 2024

The Titans canned HC Mike Vrabel this offseason and replaced him with Brian Callahan. The former Bengals OC has been a pass-leaning play caller, with four of his five Cincinnati offenses ranking top-12 in pass rate, including a trio of top-6 finishes.

Callahan might not lean that far toward the pass in Tennessee. (Levis is not Joe Burrow.) But his arrival will bring a big shift after the Titans ranked no higher than 25th in pass attempts in six seasons under Vrabel.

Better Weapons Arrive in Free Agency

That planned shift became more clear with Tennessee’s moves in free agency. 

The team started by adding RB Tony Pollard, who has the 12th-most receptions among RBs over the past three seasons. He joins RB Tyjae Spears, who caught 52 balls as a rookie last year, to give the Titans one of the best pass-catching backfields in the NFL.

Then Tennessee made a much-needed upgrade at WR by signing Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million deal. Ridley returned from a nearly two-year absence last season to tally 1,016 yards and 8 TDs. He ranked a respectable 43rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 48th in yards per route among 84 qualifying WRs.

DeAndre Hopkins (17th and 18th) easily beat Ridley in both metrics and might remain Tennessee’s top WR this season. But the fact that Ridley might be the team’s 2nd-best receiver is excellent news for Levis.

Any value WR Treylon Burks and TE Chig Okonkwo provide is just a bonus.

Untapped Rushing Upside?

Levis averaged just 7 rushing yards per game last year. But there’s potential for him to score more fantasy points with his legs this season.

Levis ran for 1,174 yards and 17 TDs across four college seasons, including a 516-yard, 9-TD 2021. He didn’t run the 40-yard dash in the pre-draft process but registered a 34-inch vertical (79th-percentile among QBs) and a 124-inch broad jump (95th). Levis is a plus athlete.

If nothing else, the 229-pounder should be an option near the goal line, especially with RB Derrick Henry gone.

 

 

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RB Sleepers

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

Rookie Season Wiped Out by Injuries

Miller’s 2023 rookie season was marred by injury.

A sprained MCL suffered in his final college game kept him sidelined for much of last offseason. Miller reinjured that knee in the preseason opener and then hurt his hamstring late in August.

He missed the first two games of the season, played in the next seven, and then missed the next seven with an ankle injury.

Miller wound up with just 41 carries and 11 targets across eight outings.

Strong Finish to Debut Season

He saved his best for last, though.

With Alvin Kamara sidelined for the season finale, Miller split work with Jamaal Williams, taking 13 carries for 73 yards (5.6 YPC) and a score against a Falcons team that finished 11th in run defense DVOA.

Impressive College Career

Consider it a reminder of this guy’s talent.

Miller averaged 7.4 yards per carry across his first two seasons at TCU and then had a huge 2022 junior campaign. He ranked top 15 in the nation in rushing yards (1,399) and TDs (17). Miller ripped off 6.2 yards per carry and ranked 27th among 168 qualifying RBs in PFF rushing grade.

Declining Competition Creates Opportunity

Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams remain under contract with the Saints for 2024 – which might be good news for Miller.

Kamara will turn 29 in July. And, although he has remained effective as a pass-catcher, he’s clearly declining as a runner. Kamara averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last year, finishing with career lows in both missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt.

Williams was simply one of the worst runners in the NFL last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

This backfield is ripe with opportunity for the explosive, fresh-legged Miller. His ceiling projection is 230 PPR points, which would have landed him inside the top-12 RBs last season.

  

 

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Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy Points To Be Had in Bengals Backfield

Cincinnati has been a good spot for RB fantasy production with a healthy Joe Burrow. In Burrow’s two 16-game seasons (2021 and 2022), Bengals RBs combined to rank 14th and sixth in total PPR points.

Joe Mixon, of course, accounted for most of those points. He finished fourth among RBs in PPR points in 2021, 11th in 2022, and sixth even last year, despite Burrow missing seven games.

Mixon did that in spite of middling play. Here’s how he ranked in a couple of key advanced metrics: 

*Among RBs with 90+ carries

Is Zack Moss an Upgrade Over Joe Mixon?

Moss trailed Mixon in PFF rush grade in each of the past three years. But he beat Mixon in rush yards over expected per attempt in both of the last two. In fact, Moss ranked fifth among 51 qualifying RBs in RYOE/attempt last year.

That was part of a career-best season for Moss, who was especially impressive as the Colts’ lead back. In six games with a snap rate north of 50%, he averaged:

His 16.4 PPR points per game in those six outings would have ranked seventh among RBs on the season.

Don’t expect that type of volume for Moss this season – or even as much work as Mixon got the past few years. But if Moss can beat or even just match Mixon in per-touch production, he shouldn’t have trouble paying off his RB34 ADP.

What About Chase Brown?

Brown flashed his big-play ability a few times as a rookie last year. There were runs of 27 and 31 yards, plus a 54-yard receiving score.

Brown finished with just 4.1 yards per carry, though, and a 34.1% rushing success rate that ranked dead last among 77 qualifying RBs.

He’s a boom-or-bust runner at this point of his career and seems best suited for a secondary role.

This Bengals backfield is a fluid situation, so Brown is fine to take some shots on in fantasy drafts. But Moss looks like the better bet for touches and fantasy points.

Bengals Like Moss’ Fit in Offense

HC Zac Taylor highlighted Moss’ fit in his team’s shotgun, gap-run scheme shortly after signing him.

“I love his patience,” Taylor said. “I love his eye discipline.”

There’s upside for Moss to handle 15+ touches per game – plus goal-line work – in a high-scoring Bengals offense.

 

  

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WR Sleepers

Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

A Sneaky-Strong Rookie Season

Wicks didn’t see enough consistent playing time to be a real fantasy factor as a rookie last year.

But his underlying metrics show a guy we want to invest in heading into Year 2.

Wicks drew a target on 20% of his pass routes and averaged 1.94 yards per route. Those marks ranked 43rd and 22nd, respectively, among 78 qualifying WRs.

More importantly, Wicks beat teammates Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in both targets and yards per route.

Should You Worry About the Target Competition?

Jayden Reed led all three guys in both of those categories as part of a strong rookie season. He’s likely locked into a big 2024 role. Watson’s big-play ability and second-round draft capital make him a good bet for heavy snaps.

But there’s an opportunity for Wicks to snatch the No. 3 WR job from Doubs, who has been just OK through two NFL seasons.

An Ascending Packers Passing Game

This is a passing game that we want pieces of in 2024.

Last year’s Packers ranked 12th in passing yards and third in TDs. 

QB Jordan Love was especially excellent over the second half of the season, ranking top three league-wide in completion rate, passing yards, passing TDs, and PFF passing grade.

Still just 25 and entering his second season as Green Bay’s starter, Love could certainly take another step forward in 2024.

 

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Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills

Reunited With Joe Brady

Samuel’s best fantasy season came in 2020. He racked up 851 receiving yards, 200 rushing yards, and 5 total TDs, finishing 23rd among WRs in PPR points.

That season came in Carolina under OC Joe Brady, who is again Samuel’s OC after the Bills inked Samuel to a three-year, $24 million deal in free agency.

That’s no coincidence.

“He had his best year with Joe Brady,” Bills GM Brandon Beane said from the owners' meetings in March. “We see him as a guy that isn’t a traditional WR.”

Rushing Ability Adds Fantasy Value

Samuel was recruited to Ohio State as a RB and was a big contributor in the run and pass games for the Buckeyes. He totaled 1,286 yards and 15 TDs on the ground and 1,249 yards and nine TDs as a receiver across three seasons.

Samuel has primarily played WR as a pro, but he’s continued to be an effective runner. He’s totaled 715 rushing yards and seven TDs on 5.9 yards per carry across seven seasons.

His busiest and most productive rushing campaign came with Brady in 2020:

We’re not projecting that much rushing work for Samuel this season, but it’s certainly within his range of outcomes.

Chance For Career-Best Receiving Numbers

It’s, of course, the pass-catching upside that makes Samuel an interesting 2024 fantasy football sleeper.

He’s coming off back-to-back 60+ catch seasons in Washington. And he tallied career highs with 77 catches and 851 yards with Brady in 2020.

Now Samuel finds himself in easily the strongest passing game of his career. The Bills have ranked top nine in passing yards and TDs in four straight seasons.

Stefon Diggs' Departure Creates Opportunity

April's surprising trade of WR Stefon Diggs to Houston leaves behind an average of 9.8 targets per game over the past few seasons. The Bills figure to add more to the WR corps this offseason, but there's clearly room for Samuel to garner strong volume as the primary slot receiver.

Buffalo didn’t have a traditional, full-time slot receiver the past two years. But Cole Beasley was in that role from 2019 to 2021. He topped 100 targets in all three of those seasons, finishing 34th, 27th, and 40th among WRs in PPR points. Those final two seasons came with Diggs.

Samuel is capable of scoring even more fantasy points in 2024 when you factor in the receiving and rushing potential.

 

           

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TE Sleepers

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Cheap Bet on Rebound Potential

Freiermuth is coming off a disappointing 2023 season. He missed five games and ranked just 32nd among TEs in PPR points per game.

But three offseason developments have Freiermuth looking like a post-hype 2024 fantasy football sleeper.

Arthur Smith Loves TEs

Smith has been the punchline of plenty of jokes over the past few years. But the Steelers’ new OC has a long history of getting his TEs heavily involved in the passing game.

League-wide average TE target share tends to hover around 18-19%. Here are the TE target shares for Smith’s offenses:

Smith has tended to divvy those targets among multiple TEs. But he also led Jonnu Smith to a TE13 finish in PPR points per game in 2020, Kyle Pitts to a TE6 finish in 2021, and Pitts and Smith to top-17 finishes last year.

Diontae Johnson Leaves Behind Opportunity

Freiermuth’s 2024 target upside gets a boost from the departure of Diontae Johnson to Carolina.

Johnson led the Steelers in targets in each of his first four seasons from 2019 to 2022. He missed four games last year but still led the team with 6.7 targets per game and a 22.4% target share in those games.

Pittsburgh returns WR George Pickens, who ranked second on the team last year with 6.2 targets per game. But the rest of the WR corps currently includes Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins, and Marquez Callaway.

We’ll see what the NFL Draft brings, but Freiermuth certainly has a shot to be the No. 2 option in this passing game.

QB Upgrade(s)

After another season of shoddy QB play, the Steelers added both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields this offseason.

Wilson is in “pole position” for the starting job, HC Mike Tomlin said in March, and would be better for Freiermuth’s fantasy outlook. Wilson remained an accurate passer in Denver last year, ranking 12th in completion rate (66.4%) and third in adjusted completion rate (78.8%) among 33 qualifying QBs.

But Fields would also likely be an upgrade over what the Steelers had behind center last season. His career 60.3% completion rate falls short of Pittsburgh’s 63.8% last year. But Fields beats the 2023 Steelers in career yards per attempt (7.0 to 6.8) and TD rate (4.2% to 2.6%).

Freiermuth Has Already Been a TE1

Freiermuth was the 55th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft after averaging 41 yards and 0.55 TDs per game across three seasons at Penn State.

He debuted as a pro with a strong 60-497-7 line. Freiermuth’s 151.7 PPR points ranked 13th that year and were the 11th-most from a rookie TE in NFL history.

He was even better in 2022, ranking sixth among TEs in both catches (63) and yards (732). Despite missing two games and scoring just two TDs, Freiermuth still finished seventh at the position in PPR points. He also ranked seventh in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route among 32 qualifying TEs.

Freiermuth’s poor 2023 looks like an outlier for a guy who should pump out more TE1 seasons.

 

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7 Deep Sleepers

Antonio Gibson, RB, New England Patriots

Gibson's Washington tenure was generally underwhelming.

But he was super productive in the passing game. Here's where Gibson ranks among RBs over the past four seasons:

• 9th in targets
• 9th in catches
• 6th in receiving yards
• 9th in receiving TDs

He's averaged a solid 6.0 yards per target and 1.3 yards per route for his career.

It sets him up for primary pass-catching duties in New England. RB Rhamondre Stevenson has totaled 107 catches across the past two seasons but has been inefficient, averaging 4.7 yards per target and 1.1 yards per route.

The days of expecting Gibson to break out as a lead back are over. But he could catch a bunch of passes for this Patriots team thin at WR.

 

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Michael Carter, RB, Arizona Cardinals

James Conner remained very effective last year and will return as Arizona’s lead back in 2024.

But there’s room for Carter to carve out a secondary role behind Conner and, more importantly, win the fantasy handcuff job.

Conner has had trouble staying healthy, missing multiple games in all seven of his NFL seasons.

That gives Carter plenty of handcuff appeal. He sports a solid 4.2 career yards-per-carry average and has tallied 101 receptions across his first three pro campaigns.

 

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Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jones missed eight games and most of another with injuries last year.

But he averaged 7.4 targets on an 18.5% share in eight healthy games. That’s a full-season pace of 126 targets that would have landed Jones 21st among WRs.

He’s capable of repeating that level of volume in 2024. Remember that Jones saw 121 targets back in 2022, posting an 82-823-5 line and WR26 PPR finish.

Jacksonville swapped out Calvin Ridley for Gabriel Davis in free agency, which is a net gain for Jones' target potential.

 

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Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Mooney disappeared in bad Bears passing games the past two years.

But he drew 98 targets on a 16.0% share as a rookie in 2020 and followed that up 140 targets and a WR23 PPR finish in 2021.

He's an intriguing bounce-back candidate after a move to Atlanta, where the Falcons look set to deploy a pass-leaning offense under OC Zac Robinson and QB Kirk Cousins.

Mooney's deep speed (4.38-second 40 time) should be a good fit with Cousins, who ranks No. 1 in accuracy on passes 20+ yards downfield over the last four seasons, per Sharp Football.

He might not see enough targets behind WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson to be a reliable weekly fantasy play, but Mooney should at least be a useful best-ball asset.

 

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Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos

Mims flashed a few times as a rookie last year, finishing with a big 17.1 yards per catch. 

He didn’t see enough playing time or claim enough targets to be a real fantasy factor, but we’re not ruling out the possibility of a big second-year leap from a guy who entered the NFL with a strong prospect profile.

Mims broke out as a true freshman at Oklahoma and led the Sooners in receiving yards in all three years on campus. He left school with a huge 19.5 yards-per-catch average and blazed a 4.38-second 40 time at the Combine.

Mims’ fantasy value got a big boost when the Broncos traded WR Jerry Jeudy to the Browns in March. The team has only added WR Josh Reynolds so far this offseason.

 

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Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots

After a buzzy summer, Douglas caught 49 balls as a sixth-round rookie last year. 

In eight games with a snap rate of 60+%, he averaged:

• 6.6 targets (21.2% share)
• 4.1 catches
• 46.1 receiving yards

Those numbers look more impressive when you consider that New England ranked 28th in passing. Douglas’ 49 catches were actually second-most on the team, behind only RB Ezekiel Elliott’s 51.

If the Patriots find an answer at QB this offseason, Douglas could take a nice second-year leap.

 

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Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks

Fant has finished 17th and 32nd among TEs in PPR points with the Seahawks the past two seasons.

So it might seem like bad news that he re-signed with Seattle in March.

But, as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend!"

The Seahawks swapped out OC Shane Waldron for OC Ryan Grubb this offseason. Grubb spent the past two years as the University of Washington's OC, leading the Huskies to a pair of top-two finishes in passing yards per game. He deployed an aggressive, downfield attack that should fit Fant's game well.

Remember that Fant blazed a 4.50-second 40 time at 249 pounds in the pre-draft process, earning an elite 9.89 Relative Athletic Score. This is a high-end athlete who's still only 26 years old.

It's also worth noting that the Seahawks lost TEs Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly, who basically split playing time with Fant last year, and have not added to the position. It looks like Grubb will go with more of a clear starting TE than the committee we've seen in Seattle the past two years.

 

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How to Unlock Your League's Sleepers

Unlocking your team's championship potential hinges on snagging the perfect sleepers. The players you've just read about are a great start.

But here's the catch: the value of a sleeper varies wildly depending on your league's unique rules and scoring system.

You could go old-school: gather endless data, juggle spreadsheets, and crunch numbers until the sleepers emerge. Or, you could streamline the process with our ADP Market Index tool.

 

Here’s what you get with our ADP tool:

Customized Analysis: Get player rankings and ADP insights that mirror your league's unique format.  Whether you're in a PPR league, require a trio of starting WRs, or navigating the complexities of Superflex, both the rankings and ADP correlate to your league.

Effortless Insight: Instantly compare each player's value against the market average (ADP). Again, this is all calibrated to your fantasy platform and scoring guidelines. That means you’ll see the gaps between a player’s actual value and his ADP.

Spot the Sleepers: Next, look for green index numbers signaling undervalued players. Discovering a player underrated by 20, 30, or even 40+ spots means you've found a sleeper who could bring you a championship run. 

Dive into the ADP Market Index: I know you're bombarded with fantasy content asking for your attention. But if you’re truly trying to gain an advantage by targeting sleepers in your upcoming draft – you really should spend a few more minutes checking out our ADP Market Index tool.  It could be the difference between a championship or another mediocre season!