Fantasy Football Redraft

2019 Auction Strategy Guide

By Matt Schauf 1:08am EDT 8/16/19

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Isn’t it annoying to watch that player you’re targeting with your next fantasy football draft pick go to another team the spot before your turn?

Know what’s even more annoying? Watching a league mate outbid you by $2 for that wideout you wanted … and then finishing the draft with $3 in your bank.

Why is the 2nd scenario worse than the 1st? Because that one is actually your fault.

There will always be other drafters who like some of the same players you do and target them in the same round of snake drafts. And there will always be fellow auction drafters willing to go just a few dollars higher on a player you both want.

But being too conservative early in an auction only to finish with leftover fake money you can never use? That’s an issue that you can prepare for and avoid. And, honestly, it’s an issue I’ve had in more than 1 auction.

The main purpose of this annual guide is to leave you more prepared than your league mates for your upcoming auction. But it’s also a time to learn from mistakes. Mostly mine.

The Basics

I assume that most of you reading this article have done auction drafts before. But just in case you’re not familiar with the format, here are the basics:

• League owners take turns nominating players to be purchased.
• Anyone interested bids on the player until the bidding stops.
• High bid wins the player and loses that amount of money from the owner's preset bank.
• Repeat until all rosters are full.
• Realize when it’s over that you couldn’t have spent that 4 hours in a better way.

Auction drafting is great because it gives everyone in your league a shot at every available player. You’re not subject to the luck of draft position. You’re limited only by your own strategy.

Some of those limits are necessary, of course. You can’t buy every player you want. But you can choose from many paths to build the team your way. And we’re here now to prepare for just that.

The Approach

Let’s start with your overall strategy, which has been built into the MVP Board for the past couple of seasons. Just like entering your league’s lineup and scoring settings can deliver appropriate rankings and pick recommendations for your snake draft, it can also assign auction values to the players who make up those rankings.

When you set up your MVP Board for an auction draft, you’ll find a box to enter your starting bank (“Auction $/Team”), and then an “Auction Strategy” dropdown with 5 options:

1. Build strong starting lineup
2. Focus on starters over depth
3. Balanced roster
4. Focus on depth over starters
5. Build strong depth

The board will adjust player values throughout the draft, based on what’s available and your team’s needs. Those 5 settings above, though, will matter most for setting expectations near the top of your board.

I tested a 12-team PPR league with 16 roster spots, a $200 bank and the following lineup specifications:

QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
WR
TE
Flex
K
D/ST

This table shows the difference in prices for the 5 strategy settings:

That table only takes you through the top 42 players on the resulting board, because the values started to balance out at that point. This makes sense, of course. Just because you’re not willing to pay as much for the top options doesn’t mean you’re valuing dudes 50-55 more heavily than your competitors. You’re just more willing to target that range for your roster.

Now, the dollar values will obviously vary depending on your specific league size, roster size and lineup requirements. The MVP Board will help with that. The tough part is setting the top of the board appropriately. In addition to the endless league variations, it’s tough to find reliable auction ADP data or even aggregate auction values.

Based on my unscientific searching, though, column 3 or 4 above (the “balanced roster” and “focus on depth over starters”) should come pretty close to matching the top player values in your league. How far above those top values you’re willing to go for the early-round types, of course, depends on your preferred approach.

Budgeting

Whether you want to pay up to secure a couple of studs or spread your money around, you need to go in with a budget.

Don’t make it so rigid that you miss out on the high-rise with the amazing ocean view just because it cost a bit more per month than you planned. But you also can’t go in as the flaky spouse who thinks money doesn’t matter as long as you’re happy. It’ll matter when your roster is Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara and every $1 Niners wideout.

Here’s a breakdown by position (with the dollar amounts for a $200 bank in parentheses):

QB = 7% ($14)
RB = 45% ($90)
WR = 40% ($80)
TE = 7% ($14)
K = $1
D/ST = $1

Feel free to shift a little money from RB to WR if you prefer. But if you read any of our Perfect Draft articles this week or have been listening to the podcast, then you know we’re fans of fortifying your RB corps early this year. There are 2-3 sizable tiers of wideouts who will likely check in at or below $20 on your initial auction-value board.

How to Attack Each Position

Quarterback

You can often get away with spending even less than the 7% allotted here at QB, and that should be the case this season.

Last year saw 19 QBs post at least 6 top-12 fantasy weeks for the year, and that doesn’t even include 5 from Nick Mullens (in 8 starts), 4 from Ryan Fitzpatrick (8), 4 from Andy Dalton (11) or 2 from Lamar Jackson (7). It also leaves out any performances that fell just short of a given week’s top 12.

This season’s QB group goes at least 24 deep with viable platoon QBs, and there’s upside to several of the remaining NFL starters.

This slow auction I took part in from mid-July through the 1st week of August found an owner pairing up Jared Goff ($5) and Jameis Winston ($4) for just $9. Another got Carson Wentz ($6), Philip Rivers ($5) and Lamar Jackson ($2) for $13 total.

(I was the sucker who spent $16 on Deshaun Watson, a move I felt fine about at the time but would change in hindsight.)

Limiting your QB spending is the way to go.

Running Back

Going after a Big 4 RB? Then you should prepare yourself to spend about 30-35% of your budget on that 1 player. That’s the move that always makes me queasy, but it’s certainly a viable strategy.

You might find better value in the group of RBs going from late Round 1 through Round 4, though. If you’re willing to take on the risk with Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley, either could pay off with numbers matching (or beating) that top 4. Anyone in the Joe Mixon-to-Kerryon Johnson range of our RB PPR rankings looks like a good pickup around 15% of your budget.

When you need to fill in the low-cost spots with upside, Dion Lewis, Matt Breida, Chris Thompson or Nyheim Hines could suit you nicely.

Wide Receiver

The hierarchy at WR is less clear than at RB this season. So paying up for a top RB rather than a top WR makes sense. The equalizer: You just might find a top-4 wideout at two-thirds the price of the top 4 RBs.

The unclear hierarchy could allow our #2 (Odell Beckham) to come off the board at a price befitting WR7. And the extra $9 there would come in handy. Train your eyes on the top 8 to see if any come in under value.

The biggest value range at WR, however, seems to start just behind Julian Edelman on our PPR auction board. You can find all 3 Rams, Chris Godwin and Tyler Boyd down there.

Beyond that, the position looks deep overall this year. You can find some cheaper sleepers here and here.

Tight End

I’m never the guy paying up for a tight end. But last year I was, and it was a mistake.

The argument for Travis Kelce is sensible: He’s a 1st-round level player who will almost certainly come more cheaply than the RBs and WRs who surround him there. But he’ll also cost double-to-triple the low-end TE starters. And you’ll still need to pay for your RB and WR starters.

Your TE plan should be similar to your QB plan. This position doesn’t go quite that deep with worthwhile starters, but it does offer plenty to suit your league. You don’t need to pay $35 for Kelce when you can give $5 for Austin Hooper.

Kicker and Defense

If you fill these positions at all on draft day, don’t pay more than $1 apiece. They’re just not worth it -- unless your scoring rules differ from the norm.

If your league doesn’t require filling all starting positions in your draft, then forget about kicker D until the pre-Week 1 waiver run. That’ll give you a couple more shots at lottery tickets who just might boost their value before the season starts.

IDP?

If your league uses IDPs and an auction draft, then I want to be in it. As for how to treat this area … most likely the way you should QB. League IDP formats vary widely, but what’s more common is fantasy players not giving this area enough attention. Use that to your advantage and snare some undervalued defenders your league mates are about to get familiar with.

Posting/Nominating Players

Now let’s wrap it up with some tips on nominating players ...

Try to secure your kicker/defense for $1 early. This assumes, of course, that you can’t skip kicker or D in your draft. In that case, locking in your starters at these spots early will keep you from having to chase them later when everyone’s filling positions of need. And if you get bid up on early kicker/D nominations, then a league mate is throwing away a few dollars that just might prove valuable late in the draft.

Post higher-dollar players you don’t want. Every draftable player has a sensible dollar value. But there will always be players you won’t want at their expected cost. I like to post some such popular players early in auctions to get fellow owners chasing -- and perhaps paying a higher-than-expected price. Damien Williams is a prime example for this season. I’ve already watched him go

Nominate lower-level players you’d like to have but are willing to lose. None of us will finish an auction with 20 players that we absolutely love. We’ll all be picking through the dollar bin at some point. Sometimes tossing Marquez Valdes-Scantling out there early will make someone pay up for him. Other times, though, you’ll find owners preferring to save their money for later.

This is a good tactic if you’ve noticed your league starting a draft conservatively. And if you’re not sure about the mindset of your fellow drafters, then throw out 1 of these guys to gauge it.

Post other owners’ handcuffs. Your league mate might be fired up about securing David Johson. But now that person might be hoping that to wait and get Chase Edmonds for $1 or $2 late. Don’t let it happen. Throw Edmonds out there when the dollars are still flying. That owner will have to throw in a little extra -- or someone else will. The more prominent the handcuff situation the better.

Hold off on posting players you really want. Let someone else put that favorite sleeper WR of yours on the auction block. Until that happens, patiently wait while everyone drains their bidding account. Of course, this depends a bit on how you’re spending is going. The more aggressively you’re going through your money, the less viable this trick is.