A RB target is essentially worth 3 times more than a carry in PPR leagues. Over the past 3 seasons, a RB carry has been worth an average of .63 PPR points. A target? 1.54 PPR points.
So pinpointing RBs set to see sneaky big volume in the passing game is a surefire way to find values late in your PPR drafts.
Here are 5 RBs usually available in Round 9 or later who have a real chance to catch 40+ balls this season and return big PPR profit.
We’re projecting D’Andre Swift to comfortably lead Detroit’s backfield in catches this season. But that doesn’t mean that Williams can’t also be a big factor in the passing game.
The Lions sport arguably the worst WR group in the NFL: Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison. So expect the RBs -- along with TE T.J. Hockenson -- to soak up a bunch of the targets.
New OC Anthony Lynn has a history of getting his backs heavily involved in the passing game. His 5 NFL offenses (2016 Bills, 2017-2020 Chargers) have targeted RBs at the following rates:
For perspective, the league-wide average for RB target rate over that span was 19.7%.
We could also get fairly big passing volume here. The Lions would probably like to be a run-leaning offense. But game script might prevent that. Detroit’s over/under win total is currently set at 5 -- 2nd lowest in the league. That means they’ll likely be trailing early and often, forcing them to shift toward the pass.
Williams is a proven pass catcher, tallying 25+ grabs in all 4 seasons with the Packers, including 70 total across the last 2 years. He’s ranked top 23 among RBs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade in both of the last 2 seasons -- and top 7 in pass-blocking grade.