Draft Strategy

8 Overvalued Players

By Jared Smola 11:08am EDT 8/12/19

Avoiding overvalued players is just as important as pinpointing the undervalued ones.

Here are 8 guys going way too early in 2019 fantasy football drafts.

Note: ADP is taken from recent Draft.com best ball drafts.

Marlon Mack, RB, Colts

DS Rank: RB22

ADP Rank: RB15

It’s not hard to get excited about Mack. He’s the clear lead ball-carrier in a strong offense behind 1 of the league’s top offensive lines.

But he also looks like a 2-down back. In his 12 games last season, Mack averaged just 2.2 targets and 1.4 catches. That’s a full-season pace of 35 targets and 23 catches — marks that would have ranked 34th and 41st at his position.

Get this: Among the 72 top-24 PPR RBs over the past 3 seasons, 61 (85%) saw 35+ targets. So unless Mack’s target volume grows this season, he’s a poor bet for a top-24 finish.

And there’s really no reason to expect it to grow. Mack wasn’t good in the passing game last year, ranking 64th in yards per target, 60th in yards per route run and 62nd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades among 66 RBs who saw 20+ targets.

Nyheim Hines easily beat Mack in all 3 of those metrics and figures to retain pass-catching duties this season. The Colts also added WRs Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell this offseason and get TE Jack Doyle back from last year’s injuries.

So Mack looks like a 2-down grinder, rather than a 3-down workhorse. And 2-down backs tend to be super volatile from week to week. Pro Football Focus’ Scott Barrett pointed out that 70% of Mack’s fantasy production last season came in the 5 games the Colts won by 14+ points. His scoring average in his other 7 games would have ranked just 46th among RBs.

And let’s not overlook Mack’s injury history. He tore the labrum in his shoulder in 2017 and missed 4 games with 2 separate hamstring injuries last year. He also has 2 concussions on his resume.

If you’re looking RB in the 3rd round of drafts, target Kerryon Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Aaron Jones and Leonard Fournette over Mack.

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