Nailing undervalued players is only 1 part of a successful fantasy draft. The other is avoiding the land mines that are overvalued players.
Using ADP as a guide, here are 9 names we’re avoiding at their current prices.
Note: All ADPs and Draft Sharks rankings are PPR.
Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars
ADP Rank: WR14
DS Rank: WR22
The deep ball provided a key reason for Robinson’s 2015 breakout.
Per Pro Football Focus, he led the league in deep ball (20+ yard) targets. He also paced all WRs with 672 yards on deep balls.
As a result, Robinson’s yards per catch sprung to 17.5.
Last year, of course, produced a different tune. Robinson posted 12.1 YPC and wasn’t a downfield factor alongside an anemic Blake Bortles. The duo connected for a laughable 48.6% catch rate.
Unfortunately, OTAs, training camp and preseason action have provided little hope for a Bortles turnaround. In fact, the 4th-year passer might not even keep his job.
Chad Henne certainly doesn’t look like a savior. He’s a check-down champion with a career yards per attempt of 6.6 — equal to Sam Bradford's mark and even ahead of Alex Smith’s (6.8).
Look for the Jags to try and grind out games with support from their defense. While a healthy Robinson might push for 130+ targets, efficiency remains a major shortcoming.