The crux of fantasy football is buying guys for cheaper than they’re actually worth and avoiding the overpriced dudes. That’s why the first thing we do after releasing our rankings each year is to compare our lists to ADP.
Who do we like more than the pack? Who are we lower on?
Let’s take an early look at some of the more notable undervalued and overvalued players. Of course, our rankings will change throughout the summer. So will ADP. We’ll have an updated version of this article during peak draft season in August.
Note: We’re using our PPR rankings and ADP data from real MFL10 drafts from June 1 to June 16.
Colin Kaepernick, QB,
DS Rank: 13
ADP Rank: 16
Kaep frustrated fantasy owners by finishing 16th among QBs last year. But a closer look at his numbers shows that his 2014 campaign wasn’t as disappointing as you might think.
His 3,369 passing yards were a personal best. So were the 641 rushing yards. Kaepernick’s 19 passing scores were just 2 fewer than he tallied in 2013. And his 60.3% completion rate was slightly better than his career average entering the season.
The problem? Kaepernick scored just 1 rushing TD. Consider that a fluke. He totaled 13 rushing scores in 26 starts (including postseason) between 2012 and 2013. And even significantly less athletic QBs like Andy Dalton, Josh McCown and Jay Cutler scored more rushing TDs on fewer carries than Kaep last year. Look for him to pop in at least a few TDs on the ground in 2015.
Kaepernick’s passing numbers are also a good bet to grow. A depleted San Francisco defense figures to mean more passing this season. And the arrival of Torrey Smith gives Kaep the best deep threat he’s had as a Niner.
As the 16th QB off the board, Kaepernick is essentially priced at his floor. There’s very little downside to taking him there. And he presents top-8 upside with better TD luck.