HOLD Todd Gurley, RB, Rams
If you drafted Gurley in Round 2, you’re thrilled. He’s 2nd among RBs in non-PPR points and 1st in PPR formats.
Gifted a favorable early-season schedule — Indianapolis, Washington, San Francisco and Dallas — Gurley owns a much-improved 4.2 yards per carry and a long run of 29. His longest carry all of last season (278 attempts) went for just 24 yards.
As expected, the O-line has improved. Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards metric places L.A. 9th through 4 games — way up from their 29th place finish a year ago.
Of course, the real story here is volume. Gurley leads the NFL with 106 touches and has handled a league-high 53.5% of his team’s touches. He’s enjoyed TD luck, pacing the league in carries inside the 5-yard line (8) and tying for 2nd at the position in red zone targets (4, on par with A.J. Green and Antonio Brown).
That’s helped Gurley rack up 7 total TDs — 3 through the air. He entered 2017 with 0 career receiving scores.
Now, it’s reasonable to expect Gurley’s current trajectory to dip. While the Rams are more efficient and creative under HC Sean McVay — they’ve already exceed 21 points 3 times compared to twice in 2016 — their feature back is on pace for 424 touches. That’s simply unsustainable.
What’s encouraging is Gurley’s receiving role, which has him top 7 in targets (25) and catches (20). That’s critical for a stretch in the season that turns up more challenging opponents. Here’s his upcoming schedule:
Seahawks
Jaguars
Cardinals
BYE
Giants
Texans
Vikings
Saints
Cardinals
Eagles
Seahawks
There’s only 1 bottom-12 run D in there — Jacksonville, a unit we expect improvement from going forward. So, expect at least a small drop in efficiency from Gurley.
Ultimately, though, we’re keeping 1 of the NFL’s true workhorses unless an owner presents a truly massive haul.
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