BUY Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
What’s the difference between last year’s Allen and this year’s? Well, through 4 games, it’s 4 targets and 52 yards.
That’s it. Here are the numbers:
Through 4 weeks last year, though, Allen ranked 9th among PPR receivers. This year? 35th. And last season’s 39.4 points through 4 weeks would rank Allen just 27th among wideouts right now.
So the biggest change for Allen has been the obscene passing stats of everyone around him. Even the Chargers are throwing the ball slightly more (36.75 times per game vs. 36.44) but rank 16th so far in attempts compared with 8th at the end of 2017.
Allen’s target share did climb as last season wore on, but it finished at just 27.5% -- 0.8 percentage points higher than during his 4-game start. That kind of climb is certainly possible this year as well.
Allen did also finish last season with more air yards per target (9.5) and yards after catch per reception (5.2) than he has generated to open this season (8.6 and 4.4, respectively). But each of those higher rates stands within reach as well, especially considering the schedule.
According to our Strength of Schedule formula, Allen and the Chargers have already faced 3 of their 6 worst WR-scoring matchups for the year. Going forward, L.A. faces a top-half WR schedule, starting with 3 straight positive matchups before the Week 8 bye.
As long as he remains healthy, Allen looks like he should continue to be at least close to the guy he was last year. Even if the rest of the league continues to deliver bigger passing stats, that 2017 Allen sure isn’t gonna hurt your team.