BUY Alex Collins, RB, Ravens
Collins has a couple of things working in his favor down the stretch.
First: The Schedule. According to our Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed metric, Baltimore has the easiest remaining RB schedule — and by a wide margin. Collins still has 3 games against bottom-4 RB defenses (Bengals, Falcons, Chiefs). His only remaining negative matchup comes vs. the Chargers’ 13th-ranked RB defense in Week 16. But even that one isn’t super scary. L.A. is allowing 4.4 yards per carry to RBs and sits a middling 15th in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings.
Collins should also benefit from the Ravens’ shaky QB situation. They’ll either have a banged-up Joe Flacco or rookie Lamar Jackson under center. Either way, look for Baltimore to lean more heavily on the run. This is currently the league’s 7th pass-heaviest offense, so there’s lots of room for the rush volume to grow.
That’s obviously good news for Collins, who’s seen a nice 61% of the RBs carries this season. And that number has jumped to 71% over the past 4 games.
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