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DFS Showdown Lineup Picks: Steelers-Colts
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Tonight's game doesn't look like the place to go for offense.
The Steelers and Colts hit the night with the week's 3rd-lowest over-under -- and for good reason. Just 4 of Pittsburgh's 10 games this season have gone over the Vegas total. Two of those came in the past 3 contests -- including a 67-point game with the Bengals. But this is the 3rd straight week Vegas has set the Steelers' number at 39.5.
Indianapolis has been even worse. Just 2 of the Colts' 11 contests have gone over their total. Seven of them have fallen short of tonight's line.
Both teams arrive with defenses playing better than their offenses. The Steelers got T.J. Watt back 2 games ago. They had some trouble with Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing offense last week, but the run defense has been stellar 2 straight games. That's not great news for Jonathan Taylor.
Steelers RB Najee Harris enjoyed his 2 best rushing performances of the season to date his last 2 times out. Unfortunately for him, Indy arrives as the #6 run defense by Football Outsiders DVOA and a negative matchup for RB scoring.
The Colts, however, will be without EDGE Kwity Paye -- a strong run defender -- might miss LB Zaire Franklin (illness) and will likely have DT DeForest Buckner at something less than 100%. He's questionable, dealing with a rib issue and illness. Does all that soften the run D tonight?
Each defense rates worse against the pass, landing as the 9th and 10th most friendly scoring matchup for fantasy QBs. The Steelers sit 3rd-most generous to WRs. The Colts have been significantly kinder to TEs.
But is either QB equipped to leverage those advantages? Or are we just bound for a run-heavy slog?
Let's try to figure that out as we check the values for DFS showdown lineups ...
DraftKings
Steven Sims Jr. and Gunner Olszewski couldn't have split the slot job much more evenly last week. Sims played 1 more snap; Olszewski ran 1 more pass route. Each has just 3 catches for the year. Sims has also carried the ball in 3 consecutive games. He had runs of 10 and 11 yards at Philadelphia back in Week 8. No other carry of his has picked up more than 3 yards.
Interestingly, Sims has been the team's lead return man. that's interesting because Pittsburgh signed Olszewski to a 2-year, $4.2 million deal in free agency this past offseason -- seemingly with return duties at the center.
If either does anything tonight, it'll be a nice bonus at minimum salary. For what it's worth, Olszewski has the only red-zone target between them (last week, from the 9-yard line).
I mentioned injury/illness issues for the Indy defense up top, but the illness has affected their offense as well. TE Kyren Granson was downgraded over the weekend from questionable to doubtful. That can only help the chances of either Mo Alie-Cox or Jelani Woods helping your lineup.
Their roles haven't differed all that much, in terms of where they line up. But Woods has spent a bit less time in a traditional, "inline" TE alignment: 46.3% vs. Alie-Cox's 57.3%, according to Pro Football Focus. That might give him a bit more upside against a defense that has defensed TEs much better than WRs this year.
On the other hand, Alie-Cox is the only one getting player-prop lines between them. Underdog lists his yardage line at 13.5. DraftKings has him at 1.5 receptions, with the market favoring the under.
Alie-Cox does lead Woods 19-13 in targets and 14-7 in receptions for the season. Woods leads 3-2 in TDs. Most importantly, he costs less than half of what Alie-Cox does on DK.
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