DFS Showdown Tips: Buccaneers-Giants

By Matt Schauf 1:11pm EST 11/2/20

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Playing the DFS showdowns might be the only way to make this week’s Monday night game palatable.

The Giants sport a defense that looks decent only in comparison to the team’s garbage offense. The D entered Week 8 ranked 19th in overall DVOA but much stronger in the less-important area of run defense (11th) than pass (27th).

The offense, though, looks at those numbers wistfully, dreaming of the day it might climb to such heights. That unit entered Week 8 ranked 30th in overall DVOA: 28th in passing, 25th rushing.

Is there another team in the NFL that would be worse off for missing RB Devonta Freeman (ankle)?

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, check in at 6th in offensive DVOA and tops on defense. Tampa opened as an enormous 10-point road favorite … and that number has since climbed by 3 points.

Let’s get to the values …

DraftKings

A couple of Giants top this chart, but that’s primarily because the group has played so poorly that it’s pushing everyone’s prices down. Dion Lewis gains a little upside with Devonta Freeman being out, but the coaches don’t even want to give him the ball. The veteran has had just 1 game all season in which he exceeded 3 touches. That was the Week 2 trip to Chicago in which Saquon Barkley … well, you know.

Golden Tate has seen just 3 targets and caught a mere 2 passes over the past 2 games, even though Sterling Shepard returned just last week. Tate saw a season low in playing time with Shepard back. He did still run a route on 61.5% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks, at least. So I’d try to fit Tate as the cheap Giant over settling for Lewis.

It’s also worth noting that Shepard played just 21.1% of his snaps in the slot in his Week 7 return. Lining up as the primary slot man (83% of his snaps so far) sets Tate up with easily the best individual matchup among Giants wideouts in coverage.

On the Bucs side, Mike Evans draws James Bradberry in likely shadow coverage. Bradberry ranks 6th among all corners in Pro Football Focus coverage grade so far this season. I wouldn’t avoid Evans completely if you’re building multiple showdown lineups. But leaning away from him might be a good way to differentiate, especially in a single-entry field.

FanDuel

You could do worse than starting your FanDuel build with the first 3 Buccaneers in this chart. Tyler Johnson has seen just 9 total targets on the season. But his 3 looks over the past 2 games have included 2 short-range TDs. Both of those came with Chris Godwin active. Last time Godwin sat out, Johnson ran routes on 82% of Tom Brady’s dropbacks and drew 6 targets (at Chicago).

The biggest drag on FD might be not having the Bucs defense available. So get your exposure to the D on DK (perhaps even in the captain spot … seriously). And if there’s a Bucs player you’re having trouble fitting into your DK lineups, then consider getting that exposure here instead. Evans, for example, might be a better FD play with the half-PPR scoring -- increasing the value of TDs. He’ll always be a threat in that category.You could do worse than starting your FanDuel build with the first 3 Buccaneers in this chart. Tyler Johnson has seen just 9 total targets on the season. But his 3 looks over the past 2 games have included 2 short-range TDs. Both of those came with Chris Godwin active. Last time Godwin sat out, Johnson ran routes on 82% of Tom Brady’s dropbacks and drew 6 targets (at Chicago).