Sunday night gave us predictably little offense. Monday night should be different.
The Chiefs and Chargers each rank among the league’s top 12 in yards per play. L.A. has lagged in scoring, but that might be changing. Philip Rivers’ crew has posted 2 of its 4 largest point totals the past 2 weeks.
The Week 9 win over Green Bay included the Chargers’ season high in yardage. And the 2 games have featured the team’s largest rushing totals for the season.
The other side, of course, got Patrick Mahomes back last week. Those Chiefs promptly cracked 400 passing yards and 500 total yards for the 2nd time this season. They also gave us easily the most workhorsey game of the season for Damien Williams to date.
So where’s the showdown value for DFS?
The week’s highest over/under sets up a nice spot for both kickers. It doesn’t hurt that Harrison Butker and Michael Badgley each rank among the top 3 in fantasy points per game at the position.
Sammy Watkins has drawn 8+ targets in 6 of the 7 games he hasn’t left early this season. That sets a nice floor and explains his high value position here. The only problem is that he hasn’t come close to a ceiling performance since Week 1. After dropping a 9-198-3 receiving line on the Jaguars in the opener, he hasn’t reached 65 yards or the end zone in any game since. According to Pro Football Reference, Watkins has only seen 3 red-zone targets for the year.
Damien Williams is officially questionable for the game, but he’s back with the team after tending to a family issue and should be ready to go. He faces the league’s 6th-best RB scoring matchup tonight, according to our adjusted points allowed formula.
The FanDuel chart features more predictable names near the top, including Damien Williams checking in even higher. Tyreek Hill’s #2 salary ranking for the slate means you’ll need to make a decision on him. If you’re using multiple lineups, then you should probably include Hill in at least 1 in case he has a Tyreek Hill game. He produced well against the Chargers over the past 2 seasons:
5-77-1 on 8 targets
5-88-1 on 6 targets
7-169-2 on 8 targets
4-46 on 7 targets
The down outing came in last year’s 2nd meeting, the Chargers’ narrow victory at Kansas City.
On the other side: Chargers WR Mike Williams remains due for some TDs and racked up 3 of them in that just mentioned matchup (2 receiving, 1 rushing). Williams posted receiving lines of 5-81 and 7-76 in last year’s 2 meetings but enters this round off 2 straight 3-target games. He’s clearly a risk/reward candidate here.