DFS Showdown Tips: Chiefs-Raiders
The Chiefs and Raiders check in with the 3rd-highest over/under of Week 10 … which is less than we’ve come to expect from this matchup.
Last year’s 2 meetings produced 72 and 66 points. Both teams topped 30 in each.
This year’s offenses arrive just 16th (Las Vegas) and 15th (Kansas City) in scoring, but they rank 6th and 7th, respectively, in total yards.
Patrick Mahomes reached 340 yards in both 2020 contests and has done so in 3 of his past 4 meetings with Vegas. He has also tossed 2+ TD passes in 5 of 6 lifetime clashes. Mahomes would normally look like a lock for production in that range, but he arrives with just 2 total TDs over his past 3 games (both passing), with a mere 215.7 passing yards per game over that span.
Derek Carr, meanwhile, arrives with more passing yards -- despite throwing 50 fewer passes while playing 1 fewer game. Carr also posted big numbers in both 2020 meetings, completing 72.6% of his throws across the 2 games and completing 3 TD passes in each. Whereas Mahomes has struggled recently, Carr has thrown for 296+ yards in each of his past 3 contests.
Do we finally get the Chiefs rebound game we’ve been waiting for? Do we get another shootout between these division rivals? Or will we get the 5th straight under on K.C.’s game total? The past 3 of those have come in WAY under.
Let’s check the value charts …
Guessing right among the cheapies at the top of this chart could be key to a big showdown win. Derrick Gore’s name still stands out from his 11-48-1 rushing line of 2 weeks ago, but his 4 total touches last game seem more reflective of his role. Gore has played just 16 and 10 snaps the past 2 weeks.
Zay Jones is the sneakier option. His stat line from the last game shows just another 1-catch outing. But his playing time leaped to 96% of offensive snaps as he tripled his previous high for total snaps. Jones’ 4 targets in that game doubled his previous single-game high. His role will probably shrink with DeSean Jackson in the mix, but does it go all the way back down? That’s where his salary sits. And even if Jones only musters a couple of targets, his 16.9-yard average depth of target adds upside.
It seems worth noting here that Derek Carr has hit the 300-yard bonus (3 points on DK) 5 times in just 8 games this year -- twice more than Patrick Mahomes has in 9 outings.
Raise your hand if you predicted that heading into the year. Now raise your other hand if you’re lying. (And now explain to the others in your house why you’re staring at your screen with both hands in the air.)
Carr seems like the fairly easy starting point here. Not only has he out-passed Mahomes to this point, he offers $1500 in salary savings and gets the better matchup. The Chiefs have been the 8th most friendly defense to QBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Raiders’ defense checks in just 22nd in that category.
The Chiefs also stand 9th most friendly to TE scoring, which can only help Carr’s favorite receiver, TE Darren Waller. Waller caught 12 of 14 targets in last year’s 2 meetings with the Chiefs, scoring in each game. He has caught 5+ balls in 4 straight meetings with K.C. and snared 84.8% of his career targets against the Chiefs.