Show Navigation
Show Menu

DFS

DFS Showdown Tips: Chiefs-Raiders

By Matt Schauf 4:40pm EST 11/14/21


The Chiefs and Raiders check in with the 3rd-highest over/under of Week 10 … which is less than we’ve come to expect from this matchup.

Last year’s 2 meetings produced 72 and 66 points. Both teams topped 30 in each.

This year’s offenses arrive just 16th (Las Vegas) and 15th (Kansas City) in scoring, but they rank 6th and 7th, respectively, in total yards.

Patrick Mahomes reached 340 yards in both 2020 contests and has done so in 3 of his past 4 meetings with Vegas. He has also tossed 2+ TD passes in 5 of 6 lifetime clashes. Mahomes would normally look like a lock for production in that range, but he arrives with just 2 total TDs over his past 3 games (both passing), with a mere 215.7 passing yards per game over that span.

Derek Carr, meanwhile, arrives with more passing yards -- despite throwing 50 fewer passes while playing 1 fewer game. Carr also posted big numbers in both 2020 meetings, completing 72.6% of his throws across the 2 games and completing 3 TD passes in each. Whereas Mahomes has struggled recently, Carr has thrown for 296+ yards in each of his past 3 contests.

Do we finally get the Chiefs rebound game we’ve been waiting for? Do we get another shootout between these division rivals? Or will we get the 5th straight under on K.C.’s game total? The past 3 of those have come in WAY under.

Let’s check the value charts …


DraftKings


Guessing right among the cheapies at the top of this chart could be key to a big showdown win. Derrick Gore’s name still stands out from his 11-48-1 rushing line of 2 weeks ago, but his 4 total touches last game seem more reflective of his role. Gore has played just 16 and 10 snaps the past 2 weeks.

Zay Jones is the sneakier option. His stat line from the last game shows just another 1-catch outing. But his playing time leaped to 96% of offensive snaps as he tripled his previous high for total snaps. Jones’ 4 targets in that game doubled his previous single-game high. His role will probably shrink with DeSean Jackson in the mix, but does it go all the way back down? That’s where his salary sits. And even if Jones only musters a couple of targets, his 16.9-yard average depth of target adds upside.

It seems worth noting here that Derek Carr has hit the 300-yard bonus (3 points on DK) 5 times in just 8 games this year -- twice more than Patrick Mahomes has in 9 outings.

Raise your hand if you predicted that heading into the year. Now raise your other hand if you’re lying. (And now explain to the others in your house why you’re staring at your screen with both hands in the air.)


FanDuel


Carr seems like the fairly easy starting point here. Not only has he out-passed Mahomes to this point, he offers $1500 in salary savings and gets the better matchup. The Chiefs have been the 8th most friendly defense to QBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Raiders’ defense checks in just 22nd in that category.

The Chiefs also stand 9th most friendly to TE scoring, which can only help Carr’s favorite receiver, TE Darren Waller. Waller caught 12 of 14 targets in last year’s 2 meetings with the Chiefs, scoring in each game. He has caught 5+ balls in 4 straight meetings with K.C. and snared 84.8% of his career targets against the Chiefs.

Related Fantasy Football

Podcast: Week 13 DraftKings 12-3-21

Podcast: Week 13 DraftKings 12-3-21

3 hours ago

Is Vikings RB Alexander Mattison a must on the main slate this week ... or can a loaded stable of backs increase our options?

Read More »
Podcast: Thanksgiving DFS 11-24-21

Podcast: Thanksgiving DFS 11-24-21

3:00pm EST 11/24/21

Thanksgiving Day brings us a 3-game DFS slate, featuring some potentially UGLY options at WR.

Read More »
Podcast: Week 11 FanDuel 11-19-21

Podcast: Week 11 FanDuel 11-19-21

8:20am EST 11/20/21

How can the Bengals, Raiders and Tua Tagovailoa help you win money this week?

Read More »
Podcast: Week 11 DraftKings 11-19-21

Podcast: Week 11 DraftKings 11-19-21

7:40am EST 11/20/21

AJ Dillon, James Conner and Myles Gaskin just might be the keys to all your Week 11 DFS plans ...

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 11 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Week 11 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

9:06am EST 11/19/21

A.J. Dillon and 8 other values for Week 11 DraftKings cash games.

Read More »
Podcast: Week 9 FanDuel 11-5-21

Podcast: Week 9 FanDuel 11-5-21

8:10am EDT 11/6/21

High-end QBs look attractive on FanDuel this week, with $6K saviors at RB to help.

Read More »
Podcast: Week 9 DraftKings 11-5-21

Podcast: Week 9 DraftKings 11-5-21

7:25am EDT 11/6/21

The Packers are forced to turn to Jordan Love this week. Does his super-cheap DK salary have the same effect on us?

Read More »

Dominate your Fantasy League with

the Ultimate Tool Stack

In the heat of a draft, you want as much intel as possible. The key is integrating that into one simple, powerful tool.

Dominate your Fantasy League with

the Ultimate Tool Stack

In the heat of a draft, you want as much intel as possible. The key is integrating that into one simple, powerful tool.
3D Projections

3D Projections

3D Projections: True Dimension of Every Player’s Potential

Based on our award-winning projections, an axis of data points give insights far deeper than a ranking

View Our Accuracy Awards View Our Accuracy Awards »

Advice Draft Strategy

Advice That’s Actionable on Draft Day

Round-by-Round Draft Strategy Guides, Sleepers, Undervalued Players, Busts and Handcuffs

3D Projections

Draft War Room

Draft War Room: Intel Turned Into Killer Picks

Command your entire draft with a dynamic tool synced to your league. Updating and adapting in real time.

3D Projections

Keep Dominating Throughout The Season

Quickly find the free-agent gems, pull the trigger on the perfect trade & make the right start/sit decisions.

Keep Dominating
Draft Sharks

$6/month thereafter, billed semi-annually, one-click cancel anytime.

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play