DFS Showdown Tips: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints


If you’re annoyed at what COVID did to your Week 16 lineup, imagine how the Saints must feel.

The virus first claimed backup QB Trevor Siemian, and then removed QB Taysom Hill. That leaves 4th-round rookie Ian Book to make his 1st NFL start on Monday Night Football against a Dolphins defense that’s up to 12th-best in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA (counting more recent performances more heavily).

None of us can really know what to expect from Book in his 1st NFL exposure, but he at least profiles as a QB capable of delivering fantasy points even if he struggles.

Book’s nearly 3 full seasons as starting QB at Notre Dame produced rushing totals of 280, 546 and 485 yards, along with 17 TDs on the ground. (Keep in mind that college stats subtract sack yardage from the QB’s rushing total.) He arrives with an 80th-percentile 40 time among QBs and 79th-percentile agility.

The rookie isn’t quite on Hill’s level as a runner, but he’s probably more Taysom-like than just about any other fill-in the Saints could conjure. And although his college passing was merely good enough to make him a Day 3 NFL Draft pick despite 3 years of national prominence, Book did at least throw 72 TDs vs. just 20 INTs over his Notre Dame career.

It won’t help his chances Monday night that Book steps into an offense with shrug emojis as top receiving options behind Alvin Kamara. COVID has further thinned that group by claiming TEs Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson.

But the rushing is where our greatest hopes lie if we stick Book into any fantasy football lineups this week.

On the other side: COVID has enhanced the matchup for Tua Tagovailoa & Co. Saints S Malcolm Jenkins and LB Demario Davis are out, removing a pair of important coverage players and a key pass rusher from the New Orleans defense.

Now let’s see how the values stack up …