Chiefs-Titans is obviously the fun offensive -- and, thus, fantasy -- matchup this weekend.
The AFC title game opened with an over/under 6 points higher than its NFC counterpart. That number has since climbed 2 points further ahead.
Vegas projects Green Bay to score 4 fewer points than Tennessee on Sunday (with the home favorites another several points ahead each). The Packers arrive as the lowest rated remaining offense by Football Outsiders efficiency metrics, though all 4 teams rate strongly.
Full-season offensive DVOA
“Weighted” offensive DVOA (favoring more recent performance)
Might we see some surprising offense from this matchup? It’s possible. But when you include the defensive ratings, the mismatch becomes more apparent.
Full-season defensive DVOA
“Weighted” defensive DVOA
The Niners rate top 11 in DVOA vs. both the run and the pass -- 2nd best vs. the pass. Their Week 12 annihilation of the Packers came with LB Kwon Alexander and DE Dee Ford both sidelined. Yet Aaron Rodgers still managed only 104 yards passing and 1 total TD while taking 5 sacks.
I mentioned on last week’s podcast that the 49ers had become quite a bit more generous on defense following Alexander’s injury. Through the season’s first 9 weeks, San Francisco allowed 12.75 points and 241 total yards per game. From Week 10 on, those numbers climbed to 26 points and 322.6 yards per game. Over that 8-game span, Rodgers was the only QB who failed to account for at least 2 total TDs in his matchup with the 49ers.
Alexander, Ford and S Jaquiski Tartt (who missed weeks 14-17) all returned for last week’s domination of the Vikings. Minnesota allowed 6 sacks, turned the ball over twice and managed only 193 total yards. And the turnover total could have been much worse. The Vikings only lost 1 of their 4 fumbles.
Good luck this Sunday, Aaron, Aaron and Davante ...