The Sunday night game features the league’s #8 scoring offense hosting the league’s #7 scoring offense.
The Bills check in at #7 in overall offensive DVOA, while the Steelers sit all the way down at 17.
But Pittsburgh’s defense rates much better: #1 in DVOA vs. Buffalo at 16.
That has kept Steelers games down to averaging 45.4 total points this season. Bills contests, meanwhile, have averaged 53.5 points.
The pairing carries just the 8th highest over/under on this week’s slate at 48.5 (up 1.5 from where it opened). There’s at least upside for Pittsburgh and Buffalo to combine for much more.
The Steelers could use some help from the running game after leaning heavily on the pass over the past 5 weeks. Will James Conner supply that help in his return? Will Pittsburgh coaches give him a chance?
Let’s get to the values …
James Washington looks interesting because of his low salary. He managed just another 2 receptions the last time he took the field, but Washington drew his most targets (4) and playing time (54%) since Week 6.
Eric Ebron lands high on both lists and carries upside off 2 straight games of 11 targets and 7 catches. But there’s risk to him in this matchup. Buffalo got LB Matt Milano back from IR last week, and then he didn’t even appear on the injury report this week. Milano has been a key player in a tough TE defense when healthy over the past couple of years.