DraftKings: Thanksgiving Day Breakdown
A 3-game DFS slate brings even more volatility than usual. So I’ll be skipping cash games this Thanksgiving and focusing on tournaments. Here’s how I’ll be attacking …
It’s Josh Allen ($8,000) and everyone else. Allen has topped 30 DK points 5 times this season. The other 5 starting QBs playing on Thursday have TOTALED 2 games of 30+ DK points.
Allen is coming off his worst fantasy outing of the season in what was a run-leaning game from Buffalo. I’m expecting that to be a 1-game blip rather than the start of a trend.
Allen couldn’t ask for a better get-right spot. The Lions rank 23rd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and will be without top CB Jeffrey Okudah. The Bills are rockin’ a massive 32-point implied total – 4.25 points more than any other team on this slate.
If I’m not playing Allen, I’ll take a shot on Jared Goff ($5,200) on the other side of that game. The banged-up Bills defense just coughed up 324 yards and 3 TDs to Browns QB Jacoby Brissett and rank just 20th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the past 4 weeks.
Goff has 1 of those 2 other 30+ point games this season. The Lions offense has gotten healthy, with WR D.J. Chark returning last week and WR Josh Reynolds potentially back for Thursday’s game.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400) pops as easily the best dollars-per-point value at RB. Damien Harris had the more efficient rushing day last week, but Stevenson out-snapped him 49 to 15, out-carried him 15 to 8 and out-targeted him 6 to 2. Stevenson has now seen 5+ targets in 5 straight games and 7 of the last 8. I’ll be playing him despite high ownership in tournaments.
Two lower owned plays to consider: Ezekiel Elliott ($5,800) and D’Andre Swift ($5,600).
Tony Pollard is coming off the huge Week 11, but Zeke matched him with 15 carries. More importantly, he still looks like Dallas’ preferred option at the goal line. Elliott scored twice last week and has 5 TDs in his last 3 games. With the Cowboys sporting a big 27.75-point implied total, there’s nice TD upside here.
Swift has remained limited since returning in Week 8 – and there’s honestly nothing pointing to an increased role. But at this price and what figures to be relatively low ownership, I’ll take a shot on a guy that we know has big upside if he gets the rock. Swift is especially interesting as a runback on Bills stacks, playing for him to catch a bunch of balls in negative game script.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,600), Stefon Diggs ($8,000) and Gabriel Davis ($5,300) check in as the top 3 values at WR – which is another reason to stack this Lions-Bills game.
Justin Jefferson ($8,200) might come in lower-owned than expected in a tough on-paper matchup and coming off a 6.3-point dud. I have concerns about QB Kirk Cousins in this spot, but Jefferson has the role and talent to break the slate. He’s topped 33 DK points 4 times this season.
Darius Slayton ($5,000) looks like a nice salary saver. He’s averaged 6.5 targets on a 21% share over the past 4 games. His target share might climb going forward with WR Wan’Dale Robinson out. And the Giants’ passing volume figures to be up on Thursday as 10-point underdogs.
In large-field tournaments, consider a flier on Isaiah Hodgins ($3,000). Claimed off waivers just 3 weeks ago, Hodgins already worked his way into a 55+% route rate in each of New York’s last 2 games. He spent the previous 2 seasons in Buffalo with Brian Daboll, so he’s familiar with the offense.
T.J. Hockenson ($5,000) and Dalton Schultz ($3,800) stand out as the clear top 2 TE options in terms of projected points. Hockenson has averaged a huge 9.3 targets in his first 3 games with the Vikings. Schultz is finally over his knee issues and has averaged 6.3 targets over his last 4.
Dawson Knox ($3,500) actually checks in as the 2nd best dollars-per-point value at TE – behind Schultz but ahead of Hockenson. Knox has a wide range of outcomes, so he’s a play on Josh Allen teams but a fade otherwise.
The 4th best value at TE? Lawrence Cager ($2,700). The converted WR has emerged as the Giants’ lead TE, running a route on a strong 73% of pass plays last week. If we run into a TD or even just 1 big play at this price, we’re cookin’.
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