Dynasty Trade Targets: Buy Low/Sell High

 

Players to Buy, Rookie Picks to Sell & More

A big domino has fallen, in the form of NFL free agency.

Though the NFL Draft lies ahead, dynasty managers have considerably more answers to outstanding questions regarding player landing spots, which team situations improved (or got worse), etc.

Let’s run through some of the top dynasty trade targets you should be looking to acquire or deal away.

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Buy Low Fantasy Football Targets

These guys have a chance to dramatically improve their fantasy values as soon as this season. Consider making an offer for ...

 

Bryce Young looks like a buy low fantasy football target in your dynasty league right now.

Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers

The former Heisman Trophy winner experienced a rookie season to forget.

Among 24 rookie QBs with at least a dozen starts since 2013, Young ranks:

As bad as his play was, the Panthers’ offensive line didn’t do him many favors.

Young ranked first in pressure-to-sack rate (24.5%) and second in sacks (62) behind a unit that ranked third-worst in adjusted sack rate (10.5%).

Fortunately, Carolina took these concerns seriously this offseason and added two impact guards (Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis) via lucrative free-agent contracts.

Hunt, a former Dolphin, should be especially helpful in keeping Young upright after ranking 10th and 15th in PFF pass-blocking grade among guards over the past two seasons (min. 500 snaps).

More Offensive Renovation

The Panthers also picked up WR Diontae Johnson via trade.

The former Steeler immediately looks like the best bet to lead Carolina in targets. Johnson ranked among the top 30 WRs in target share each of the past five seasons, including No. 4 and No. 15 finishes in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Even though last year’s Young trade left the team without a first-round pick, the Panthers hold two of the first seven picks in Round 2. That presents more opportunity to add offensive help.

But the biggest upgrade might not be a player …

Boost from New Coach?

New Panthers HC Dave Canales spent last year as Buccaneers OC and the year before as Seahawks QBs coach. That made him a key member of the staffs that helped produce career turnarounds for QB Geno Smith and then QB Baker Mayfield.

We certainly can’t tell from the outside how integral Canales was to either breakthrough. But his rapid ascent to this HC gig shows NFL decision-makers believe in him.

His arrival can’t be bad for Young vs. what we saw from last year’s Carolina coaching. And if Canales was the primary architect for Smith and/or Mayfield … great news for Young.

Price Dip Lowers Your Risk

A year ago, you probably needed a top-2 pick in your superflex rookie draft to get Young. Now, he’s just QB21 in superflex ADP.

Perhaps he never truly delivers in the NFL and we all (including the league) overrated Young. But you’re not risking much to find out at this point.

Remember Trevor Lawrence with Urban Meyer (14.9 fantasy points per game) vs. without (20.5 and 20.2)?

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Christian Kirk looks like a buy low fantasy football target in your dynasty league right now.

Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Kirk has quietly been an effective fantasy WR over the past two seasons.

He followed up a solid 2022 – WR19 in PPR points per game (14.2) – with a nice 12-game stretch of production in 2023 before succumbing to a groin injury.

Among 57 WRs with at least 50 targets from Weeks 1-12, Kirk ranked:

What makes Kirk an attractive dynasty trade target is that – unlike Bryce Young – he’s poised to benefit from a member of his offense leaving.

Less Competition = Greater Success?

Kirk will have considerably less competition now that former teammate WR Calvin Ridley signed a four-year, $92 million contract with the Titans.

The two sat pretty close together Jacksonville’s receiving hierarchy last season. Over their 12 shared games:

Kirk Stat Ridley
21.2% Target Share 19.9%
28.8% Air Yards Share 37.3%

New addition Gabe Davis will make some impact, but his largest target share to date has been 17.3% (in 2022, 54th among WRs).

Kirk won’t turn 28 until mid-November and still has two seasons on his Jaguars contract.

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Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

There isn’t much to reflect on from Freiermuth’s 2023.

A hamstring injury limited him to just 12 games, and he finished as the TE28 in PPR points per game (6.4). Freiermuth only reached double-digit fantasy points twice.

But we’ve seen a TE1 season (11th in PPR points per game in 2022), and there’s reason to be excited about him moving forward.

Finally, A Real QB!

Pittsburgh let go of QB Kenny Pickett, importing Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.

In case you didn’t realize how bad Pickett played …

Among 39 QBs who started at least 24 games over their first two NFL seasons since 2003, Pickett ranks:

Whether it’s Wilson or Fields, either will be the best QB that Freiermuth has played with.

Goodbye Diontae, Hello More Production?

In addition to the massive QB upgrade, Freiermuth will no longer have to compete for targets with Diontae Johnson, a player we discussed earlier who is now with the Panthers.

Johnson led the Steelers in targets per game every year of his career (2019-23), with an average of 8.3 for that span.

Of course, George Pickens will significantly factor into the Pittsburgh aerial attack, but Freiermuth's path to becoming the second option in the offense is wide open.

Last we saw him receive such an opportunity came from Week 9 through the end of 2022, following the trade of Chase Claypool. 

In that period (Week 9-17), Freiermuth ranked:

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Sell High Fantasy Football Targets

 These guys present an opportunity for you to get a quality return on the trade market before they let you down in 2024 ...

 

Quentin Johnston should be a sell-high fantasy football target in your dynasty league right now.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Johnston put together a historically bad debut season in 2023.

Among 141 WRs since 2013 with at least 40 targets in their rookie year, the TCU product ranked:

It also took until Week 9 for Johnston to record a game with an 80%+ route participation rate, even though WR Mike Williams tore an ACL in Week 3.

Just because both Williams and Keenan Allen have moved onto different teams doesn’t mean Johnston is now good.

Some of your league mates, however, might see his new opportunity plus his first-round draft status and see 2024 breakthrough potential.

Let this renewed interest in him be your exit point.

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Picks: Mid-To-Late 2024 Firsts

First-round rookie picks can inject youth into your roster.

But not all rookie picks are created equally.

QBs Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels look exciting. Same with WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers -- as well as TE Brock Bowers. Maybe WR Rome Odunze.

Beyond that sits a drop-off in talent.

Don’t (Always) Believe The Hype

Even the recent past indicates that hit rates on rookies outside the top 5 picks aren’t always great.

Just look at the first round of Dynasty League Football's superflex rookie-draft ADP from this time last year as a prime example:

If you're not in position for a top-6 player, consider moving down in your rookie draft for a similar prospect or flip that pick for a proven veteran.

TIP

Trading away rookie picks happens to a key piece of our best dynasty draft strategy.

Rachaad White should be a sell-high fantasy football target in your dynasty league right now.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White’s finish as the RB10 in PPR points per game (15.8) last year looks great on the surface.

He ranked second among RBs in games with 20+ carries (six). Only Kyren Williams had more (seven), and just two other RBs (Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley) had more than five.

But White remained an inefficient runner.

Among 49 RBs with 100+ carries, White ranked:

Value Dip Ahead?

We're not betting White loses his backfield lead. But we would bet on Tampa Bay pursuing a better No. 2 RB than Chase Edmonds was last year.

Edmonds averaged just 3.8 carries and 1.1 receptions per game. Ke'Shawn Vaughn totaled just 26 touches; Sean Tucker 17.

That lack of backfield depth helped White rank sixth league wide in opportunity share.

Better competition in 2024 would almost certainly cut into that share -- especially given White's two years of lackluster rushing efficiency.

On top of that, dynasty managers don't have much patience for aging RBs. Any perceived value dip in 2024 could be exacerbated by White simply being a year older at a position with a high churn rate in dynasty.

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Players To Hold

Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans

Credit the Titans for being aggressive this offseason.

Despite losing Derrick Henry, the team acquired RB Tony Pollard and WR Calvin Ridley.

Tennessee now has a dynamic – albeit older – group of playmakers to help elevate Levis in his second pro season.

So why isn’t the QB a “buy”?

How Good Is He?

Levis recorded nine starts from Week 8 on as a rookie. Among 32 QBs who registered 150+ dropbacks over that span, Levis ranked:

Of course, he also flashed fantasy upside. Most prominently: Levis tossed 4 TD passes in his NFL debut and finished QB6 for that week.

It’s also worth noting that he played in a weak, run-heavy offense.

Stay Patient Amid Change

The Titans ranked 25th or lower in pass attempts in all six seasons under HC Mike Vrabel – 30th or lower in five of those years.

The Titans will now work under former Bengals OC Brian Callahan. He hails from a much pass-friendlier system. And the aforementioned moves suggest plenty more passing in Callahan’s Tennessee plan.

Those changes likely have the Levis holder in your league much more optimistic about the QB’s outlook. That would obviously make him more expensive to acquire.

If you’re that Levis holder, you’re allowed to consider offers. But make sure it’s a worthwhile return before you let go.

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D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

Swift left one of the league’s most run-friendly systems for a Chicago offense that has ranked 20th or worse in scoring for three straight years. But there’s reason for optimism.

Cash Points to RB Opportunity

Swift signed a three-year, $24 million contract this offseason. That ties him with Derrick Henry for eighth-highest annual average ($8 million) among NFL RBs right now. And that clearly indicates Chicago wants Swift to be an offensive centerpiece.

That follows a year in which Swift set a career high for carries per game (14.3) while matching his yards-per-carry average across three Detroit seasons (4.6).

Swift also saw a dip in receiving (2.4 receptions per game in Philly vs. 3.9 in Detroit), but that was bound to happen in a run-happy environment with a scrambling QB.

So What’s the Problem?

We just don’t know how good Swift actually is.

Among 49 RBs with 100+ carries last season, Swift ranked 45th in yards after contact per attempt (2.42) and 36th in PFF rushing grade – despite running behind an Eagles’ offensive line that ranked third in PFF run-blocking grade.

The Bears finished 24th in that same blocking measure.

Additionally, the Bears hired former Seahawks OC Shane Waldron as new OC. Across three seasons in Seattle, Waldron’s offenses ranked 29th, 25th, and 26th in RB targets.

Swift finished just 24th among RBs in PPR points per game last year, despite the rushing spike. He’ll need more target volume to be a difference-maker in Chicago.

Value Depends on Expectation

Why is Swift a Hold rather than a Buy or Sell? Because he presents a range of potential outcomes … and likely a range of valuations.

He sits 19th among RBs in our current dynasty ADP. He’s plenty capable of outperforming that position, if Chicago drafts QB Caleb Williams and the rookie delivers on widespread hope.

But it wouldn’t be a shock if Williams struggles – especially as a rookie. If that happens, and Swift’s target share remains lower, then the RB won’t become a difference-maker. And you’re looking for an immediate difference-maker if you buy a fifth-year RB in dynasty.

So if you can get Swift cheap, go for it. If not, then pass. And if you already have him, let’s see what happens in 2024.

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Previous Dynasty Trade Targets

These guys appeared in a previous version of our Dynasty Trade Targets. Here's what you should consider doing with them now ...

Player THen Now? Why?
Michael Pittman Buy Buy
 Still cheap
Tee Higgins Buy Hold Market value up
Greg Dulcich Buy Buy Very cheap
Isaiah LikelySellSellOvervalued
Jalen HurtsHoldHoldBuy if undervalued

 

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