Dynasty Prospect Profile: Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia
Height: 5'11
Weight: 227
Age: 22.2
Combine Results
(percentile rank among all RBs at the Combine since 1999, courtesy of mockdraftable.com):
40-yard dash: 4.52 seconds (61st)
Vertical: 38.5" (89th)
Broad: 128" (94th)
3-cone: 7.09 seconds (42nd)
20-yard shuttle: 4.25 seconds (46th)
College Career
Chubb was en route to becoming the next great college RB.
As a true freshman in 2014, the Georgia native rushed 219 times for 1,547 yards and 14 TDs (7.1 YPC). Only Auburn’s Cameron Artis-Payne recorded more yards among SEC RBs.
2015 started on that trajectory. Through just 5 games, Chubb racked up 745 yards and 7 TDs on 91 attempts. He rushed for at least 120 yards in each game — including 146 on 20 carries vs. Alabama. He had at least 100 yards in 13 straight games going back to 2014.
But in Week 6, on October 10th, Chubb’s football career changed in a flash. His first run concluded with a torn left PCL, MCL and LCL. He also sustained cartilage damage and a dislocation.
For some RBs, this might be where the story ends. Not Chubb.
After rigorous rehab, the Georgia Bulldog managed to not only return in time for Week 1, 2016 — less than a year after the injury — but dominate. He ripped off 32-222-2 at North Carolina.
Amazing.
Looking back, Chubb’s feat shouldn’t have been too surprising. Here’s just a sampling of how he's described in this excellent piece from NFL.com’s Chase Goodbread.
"You're drawn to kids who are willing to put in the time and make sacrifices, and I've never been around a kid more willing to do that than Nick.”
-Mike Worthington, Chubb’s high school coach
"It was like someone had died. You have to understand, Nick made everyone in the building better every day by the way he worked and carried himself. So it affected a lot of people."
-George Helow, former UGA Grad Assistant describing the mood after Chubb’s injury
"He's as committed to taking care of his body as anybody I've ever seen. He’s one of the first guys in every day."
-UGA HC Kirby Smart
Chubb's road back wasn't entirely smooth, though.
Harmed by a September (2016) ankle sprain, he recorded a career-low 5.0 YPC while splitting work with fellow draft prospect Sony Michel. Fortunately, Chubb avoided any setbacks with his knee. But scouts and college analysts agreed that he wasn’t the same guy from 2014 and 2015.
Chubb could have entered the NFL draft last spring. Instead, he bet on a rebound in 2017.
Smart guy.
Chubb looked more like the pre-injury player who baffled defensive coordinators. Pro Football Focus gave him an Elusive Rating of 95.2 — 4th best in this class. He maximized his sturdy frame to post a career-high 3.9 yards after contact per attempt.
So, Chubb exits Georgia 2nd all-time in rushing yards among SEC backs (4,769). Herschel Walker ranks 1st.
Let's see what the 22-year-old's tape says about his NFL future.
Film Study
Games watched - Mississippi State, Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina
Power. Leg drive. Balance. Chubb clearly has those elements of playing RB figured out...
Sometimes, it takes an official to bring him down....
Chubb doesn't have the short-area quickness of someone like USC's Ronald Jones, but he often showed enough to dart through small holes.
Chubb posted a strong 4.52 forty-time at the NFL Combine. In the clip below, he easily outruns Kentucky DB Derrick Baity (#8), who's listed at 186 pounds.
Chubb's effort and raw strength show up frequently. Here he takes on several defenders to turn what should have been a loss into a 1st down. It's easy to envision Chubb as a short-yardage/goal line factor on Sundays.
What's tougher to envision is Chubb as a pass catching force. He shows well in the highlight below, but that's 1 of only 31 career catches. 18 of them surfaced in 2014. Chubb also received below average pass blocking marks from Pro Football Focus.
On the plus side, Chubb didn't record any drops during his time at Georgia. And he reportedly caught the ball well at Georgia's March 21st Pro Day.
Fantasy Potential
Chubb is certainly someone to root for. He overcame a potentially career-ending knee injury to finish out a highly productive SEC career.
Health will remain a hot topic for interested NFL teams. At the Combine, at least, Chubb received positive feedback.
“Everyone wanted to see my knee, obviously,” Chubb said at his Combine press conference. “(They) said it looked good. They pulled on it and tugged it and and did everything they wanted to do. Everyone said it looked good, that it was great work by the doctors and good rehab.”
Come Week 1, Chubb will be almost 3 years removed from the injury.
Even if he avoids setbacks, one key question remains. Can this guy contribute in the receiving game?
It's become a critical component to finishing as an RB1. Even in non-PPR leagues, top-12 RBs have averaged 46.6 catches over the past 3 seasons.
That type of yearly contribution seems unlikely -- at least without knowing his landing spot. So rushing volume, goal line work and overall efficiency might mean a bit more for Chubb's fantasy value.
Still, what he showed at Georgia says we shouldn't be skeptics. Consider Chubb a top-5 pick in rookie drafts.