Caleb Williams ... But Then What?
Chances are, you have an ongoing or upcoming dynasty rookie draft.
Maybe it's superflex, a growing format.
That's why we gathered the Draft Sharks staff -- to roll through a dynasty superflex rookie mock draft.
So, how'd it all unfold behind Caleb Williams at the 1.01?
Let's jump into the action.
Editor's Note: A previous version of this article ran through a pre-draft dynasty superflex rookie mock draft. The DS staff got together to draft all five rounds again in May.
Alex Korff: I would listen to an argument for Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison, or Jayden Daniels at the 1.01. I would listen. But at the end of the day, I am just taking Caleb.
The Bears added significant offensive weapons this offseason in Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and Gerald Everett; making them one of the best landing spots in history for a No. 1 overall pick.
Caleb is a blue-chip draft prospect. Sometimes it can just be easy.
Kevin English: I’d consider Marvin Harrison Jr. if I’m strong at QB. But all things equal, Daniels is the pick.
Head to the dynasty superflex rookie rankings to see his 3D Value+ at 79.5 – ahead of Harrison’s mark of 58.7.
Jared Smola: This is a relatively easy spot in superflex rookie drafts, with Williams, Daniels, and Harrison comprising a clear top three.
Harrison is a super clean prospect and landed in a nice spot in Arizona with a solid QB and a clear runway to big volume.
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Matt Schauf: Nabers doesn't sit far behind Harrison -- a mere 0.06 lower in Model Score (8.98 vs. 8.92).
Don't penalize him for the Giants' tenuous QB situation. That could look very different a year from now. In the meantime, this explosive top-10 pick looks like the favorite to immediately lead his team in targets. And he brings the ability to leverage that, even with shaky QB play.
Matt: I won't fight you hard if you prefer J.J. McCarthy over Maye. But the NFL sure seems to prefer this former Tar Heel. And why not?
Maye posted big numbers as a passer (62 TDs, 8.4 yards per attempt) and rusher (1,147 yards, 16 TDs) across two seasons as UNC's starter. And our Model Scores put Maye (8.64) closer to Jayden Daniels (8.87) than to the next QB behind him (Michael Penix Jr. -- 8.34). Sure, the Patriots need to improve their WR corps. But just look to Chicago for how quickly a pass-catching group can swing from ugly to enviable.
Alex: After being drafted by the Bears 9th overall, Odunze finds himself in a crowded pass-catching room for 2024. But note: Keenan Allen is on a one-year deal that should open up some opportunities in 2025.
Odunze is an athletic, alpha WR who would have been the No. 1 WR in most draft classes. I was ecstatic to grab him at 1.06.
Shane Hallam: No rookie QB is walking into a better situation than McCarthy. His OL was third best in the NFL last season in pass blocking, per PFF. The team has invested in weapons recently with Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. And oh yeah, he also has the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson.
Even with McCarthy's inexperience, he can put up solid numbers whenever he steps into the lineup.
Kevin: I had some pre-draft concerns over Worthy’s size and play strength.
Those remain for the 165-pounder. But I’m more willing to invest here after the Texas star landed with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Shane: Bowers took a slight hit landing with the Raiders, but it might be a benefit that they have Michael Mayer already there. Mayer will likely play inline while Bowers stick in the slot similar to Dalton Kincaid for Buffalo last year. Add in a ton of screen passes and the occasional Jet Sweep run and I'm betting on Bowers being a rookie hit at TE.
I'm more comfortable with him than the remaining QBs.
Kevin: Thomas supplies elite athleticism and ideal size (6’3, 209). The Athletic’s Dane Brugler comped him to Tee Higgins.
Now, Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis are all signed beyond 2024. But Thomas has the talent to emerge as the No. 2 target come 2025.
Alex: Brooks feels like the end of a tier in superflex rookie drafts. The top QBs, WRs, and Bowers are all gone and it is time to look at the RBs.
Out of all the rookie RBs this year, Brooks had by far the best model score (7.91) placing him between Ken Walker (8.05) and Zach Charbonnet (7.79) in the year-over-year scores. Carolina has several unexciting options in Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, and Brooks has the upside of a 3-down workhorse.
The only issue is his recent ACL tear (November 2023). But if the Panthers are not worried about it, neither am I.
Matt: You don't have to be excited about Nix for him to make sense at the end of Round 1 in a superflex draft. He needs only to beat out Jarrett Stidham to start right away. And once Nix hits the field, he'll find sneaky downfield upside among his pass catchers: Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, college teammate Troy Franklin, and even TE Greg Dulcich.
Nix's rushing upside also appears at least slightly above average.
TIP
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Jared: Coleman is a boom/bust prospect -- but the scaled tipped at least a little toward the boom side after landing in Buffalo with the 33rd overall pick.
He has every chance to emerge as the No. 1 WR for an aggressive QB whose game should be a good match with Coleman.
Matt: Yep, it was goofy for the Falcons to pay Kirk Cousins a ton and then draft Penix eighth overall. But that draft capital makes him likely to start soon. And a top-10 QB looks too good to pass over in a superflex league in favor of a *maybe* at WR.
Cousins' Achilles' recovery adds another path to Penix seeing the field early.
Kevin: McConkey’s tape showed a clean route runner with the ability to play all across the formation.
As the 34th overall pick, the Chargers certainly believe in his pro potential. There’s a clear need at pass catcher following some key offseason losses (Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams).
Kevin: Benson came off the board as the RB2, albeit 20 picks behind Jonathon Brooks.
I think the wait was worth it, though. James Conner enters a contract season at 29 years old. And the offensive nucleus (Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., and OT Paris Johnson) looks strong.
Jared: I'd be looking to trade out of this pick in rookie drafts. I'm not a fan of Pearsall but will trust HC Kyle Shanahan, who made Pearsall a first-round pick and the sixth WR off the board.
Shanahan's highly efficient passing game can turn any WR on the field into a valuable fantasy asset.
Kevin: Polk figures to quickly develop into a go-to target for new QB Drake Maye.
Some of that is out of necessity – New England’s WR corps looks like one of the league’s worst. Still, his solid draft capital (37th overall) and tough, sure-handed skill set should help him earn an early-season role.
Matt: I share your concern. We should be wary of a guy who couldn't break out until his fifth college season. At this point, though, Legette's worth a shot. Moving into Round 1 to secure him means the Panthers believe. And even if that belief doesn't pay off, it should mean quick opportunity.
That would give us two potential dynasty success paths:
1) Legette does pan out and proves to be a useful contributor.
2) Legette delivers a quality rookie season by the numbers and becomes a guy we can trade for more before he has the chance to disappoint over the long term. (Remember Kadarius Toney? Chase Claypool? Michael Clayton?)
Alex: Mitchell didn’t do great in the rookie model (7.53 & 83rd Percentile) but a lot of that was due to mixed film scores and limited college production. He tested as a freak athlete and fell into a good-looking landing spot on the Colts.
This is about where a 2nd round NFL WR with character concerns should go in a rookie draft – high upside, low floor.
Shane: Being behind Kyren Williams isn't ideal. But Corum's ability to be effective rushing, receiving and blocking will allow him to spell Kyren without the offense being predictable.
Williams had three separate injuries last year, including the second high ankle sprain of his young pro career. If Williams gets banged up again, Corum could easily prove he deserves a chunk of the carries.
Jared: There are certainly safer WR picks in this range of rookie drafts -- but none with a higher ceiling than Burton. He projects as a big-play WR with TD upside and got a significant boost after landing with QB Joe Burrow.
WR Tee Higgins seems unlikely to be in Cincinnati beyond this season, giving Burton a clear path to the No. 2 WR job.
Shane: The Jets need playmakers for Aaron Rodgers, and Corley is the ultimate swiss army knife. With 51% of his receptions this past season coming on screens, I have my concerns about him turning into a WR1 in fantasy. But, Corley's ability in space and in the slot are enough for OC Nathaniel Hackett to draw up some plays for him.
If Corley becomes reliable, Rodgers could lock on to him like he did a young Randall Cobb.
Matt: Wilson hit the NFL Draft as an intriguing prospect. He ranked 27th in yards per route (2.74) among 213 qualifying WRs last year and snagged 50% of Michigan's TD receptions for the season. Wilson then impressed at the Senior Bowl. And now he lands in an offense with little behind WR George Pickens (and even Pickens isn't exactly "proven" yet).
There's potential for immediate opportunity, which could mean a quick boost in Wilson's perceived value.
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Shane: I'm a sucker for athletic RBs with big play ability. I'm even more of a sucker when they land in Mike McDaniel's offense.
The Dolphins giving up a future third to take Wright is meaningful, and he is set up to be the heir apparent to 32-year old Raheem Mostert. As a De'Von Achane fan last year, I can see efficient co-existence between Wright and Achane for the next few years. Note: One of Mostert or Achane were out for 8 games last season.
If Wright earns the #3 job from Jeff Wilson, he will see touches as a rookie.
Alex: Sinnott is an athletic freak (9.49 RAS) who walked on at K-State. He lettered in FIVE sports in high school and was named to the all-state team as a TE, WR, and DE by the Iowa Print Sports Writers Association.
Sinnot was drafted in the 2nd round by Washington and entered a TE room with a couple of lackluster options. Plus Matt and Jared have a beer bet on who will have more yards, Zach Ertz or Sinnott. Why not join in on the fun?
Matt: Lloyd's talent made him the fourth RB drafted. You might not like the landing spot -- behind Josh Jacobs -- but NFL situations change too quickly to make that a kill shot for Lloyd's dynasty value. We could be a Jacobs injury away from Lloyd leading Green Bay's backfield. And if Jacobs doesn't rebound from his poor efficiency in 2023, the Packers might simply decide to move on after Year 1.
Draft talent, which Lloyd displayed in averaging 7.1 yards per rush last year and 13.3 yards per catch for his career.
Shane: Not an ideal fall for Franklin, but it is a little overblown. It feels like if Franklin had gone two picks earlier in the NFL Draft, he would be thought of more highly. The situation in Denver is ripe for him to earn a role.
Paired back with Bo Nix, the Oregon duo could click early.
Jared: This downfield dynamo averaged 17.5 yards per catch for his college career, including 21.9 last year.
He should mesh well with the big-armed, aggressive Drake Maye on a Patriots team in desperate need of playmakers in the passing game.
Jared: This sixth-round RB might amount to nothing. Or he might lead a wide-open Chargers backfield in carries this season.
Vidal dominated at Troy over the past two seasons, racking up 2,793 rushing yards, 341 receiving yards, and 25 total TDs. The 5'8, 213-pounder then earned a strong 8.88 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.
Alex: “[Tracy is] my favorite sleeper in this RB class.” - Jared Smola
When you get the chance to take a leaguemate's favorite sleeper pick, you do it. Embrace the chaos.
On a serious note: Tracy is a converted WR who scored well in the rookie model 6.40 (65% percentile). His biggest issue was a lack of production, but his film scores carried his profile. Devin Singeltary doesn’t scare me and the Giants need help on offense. Tracy is a super interesting dart throw in the 3rd.
Jared: Don't be surprised if McMillan winds up as the second best Washington WR in this class. He easily out-produced Ja'Lynn Polk in 2022 before struggling with a knee injury last year.
We comped McMillan to Chris Godwin, who he could replace when Godwin hits free agency next offseason.
Kevin: I’m not expecting Davis to unseat James Cook as Buffalo’s lead back.
But that’s not a must for him to return fantasy value. In a recent piece, the Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia wrote that the Bills want Davis to add “power and short-yardage ability.”
That signals some short-term TD upside. Note: Buffalo’s ranked top-6 in scoring for four straight seasons.
Jared: Walker brings an intriguing size + speed combination that the Ravens could certainly use. He averaged 16.8 yards per catch for his college career, including 17.0 at North Carolina last year.
There's room for Walker to emerge as the No. 2 WR as early as this season. (No, I'm not buying the Rashod Bateman breakout talk.)
Alex: Estime had a lackluster combine that likely tanked his draft value a bit. The Broncos have several RBs on the roster and Estime might have a hard time carving out a roll, at least initially. But Samaje Perine is a cut candidate (save 3 million) and Javonte Williams is in a contract year. 2025 could look a lot different.
Estime is a strong, two-down back who could get goal line work. 3.11 feels like solid spot to take a chance on him.
Shane: Cowing is one of my favorite sleepers in the class. He had success on two different FBS teams (UTEP and Arizona) with some of the best route suddenness in the entire draft. His grade wasn't far behind from Ricky Pearsall for me.
The 49ers appear to be overhauling their WRs in the future and Cowing will be a part of that plan.
Kevin: Sanders had a chance to go as high as mid-Round 2 in the NFL draft. So slipping to early Round 4 was generally a disappointment.
But let's not act like he landed on some crowded depth chart. The 21-year-old -- loaded with pure receiving talent -- could capture a year-one role for new HC Dave Canales. Carolina's current TE depth chart turns up Tommy Tremble, Ian Thomas, and Stephen Sullivan.
Matt: The crappy Combine testing didn't keep Irving from leaving the board sixth among RBs. And it certainly didn't erase his impressive college production. Irving averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 8.3 per catch across three seasons. He caught 87 balls over his two years at Oregon. And he broke more tackles than a sub-200 pound back probably should. Irving's 4.36 yards after contact per attempt in 20213 ranked seventh among 73 RBs with 150+ carries.
Landing in Tampa puts him with Rachaad White, who dominated work in 2023 but has ranked among the NFL's least efficient rushers in each of his two seasons.
Jared: If I'm gonna take an undersized, 23-year-old WR, it's gonna be in Round 4. Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel was pumped to land Washington, whose YAC skills make him a nice fit in the offense. He has a chance to win the No. 3 WR job this season.
Thinking longer term, WR Tyreek Hill has said that he'll retire after the 2025 season.
Shane: Big RBs who are super athletes have tended to outperform their draft positions. Justin Fargas, Latavius Murray, and David Johnson all come to mind.
Guerendo is one of the best athletes at the RB position ever, and he is an ideal fit for Kyle Shannahan and the 49ers as a wide zone runner.
Matt: Shipley lands in a tough spot for immediate production. Philly paid Saquon Barkley much more than they've given any other RB during GM Howie Roseman's stint. Expect his workload to match that. But Kenneth Gainwell has failed to grow his role through three seasons with the team and heads into the final year of his rookie deal.
Shipley could at least be the new version of what the Eagles hoped to get from Gainwell. Plus, we don't know how much longer Barkley's body will support him ...
Alex: All had back-to-back season-ending injuries that hurt his college production score and likely hurt his combine testing. Overall, the rookie model didn’t like him (54th percentile). But he landed on a team that could use a TE upgrade, and we like weapons linked to Joe Burrow.
All also triggered the “better on film” flag in the model, which is usually good at spotting late-round talent.
Matt: Rattler's unlikely to become an NFL starter. But you know what? That's true of pretty much any player drafted on Day 3 -- and nearly all of the guys you're considering at this stage of the draft. So I'll take a shot here on Rattler, who drew plenty of interest as a college prospect and looked like a future first-round pick early in his Oklahoma stint.
If he can put it all together in the pros, he'll be interesting. And landing in New Orleans puts him behind one of the league's flimsier "established" vets (Derek Carr).
Kevin: Laube adds value with his versatility; The Athletic's Dane Brugler compared him to former Patriot Danny Woodhead.
The do-it-all FCS rusher lasted until Round 6 of the NFL draft, but he joined a nice backfield for opportunity.
For now, Zamir White, Alexander Mattison, and Ameer Abdullah fill the top three spots. Only White is signed beyond 2024.
Kevin: Some analysts considered Wilson a better TE fit at 6'6, 236 pounds. But the Eagles announced him as a WR and are expected to develop him there.
While A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are locked in as the top two targets long-term, there’s room for a No. 3 to emerge.
Alex: McCaffrey is a big slot WR who converted from QB in college. He landed with the Commanders’ all-new offense under OC Kliff Kingsbury.
There is a lot of opportunity for work behind Terry McLaurin, and McCaffrey could beat out 3rd year WR Jahan Dotson.
The offense is all projection at this point. At this point, why not bet on LMC and the bloodline?
Jared: TE Dalton Schultz is signed through 2026, but Houston can get out of his deal after the 2025 season. Stover has the potential to develop into QB C.J. Stroud's lead TE.
Shane: Thrash was productive in college at multiple colleges and has an impressive football IQ. Elijah Moore hasn't exactly lit the world on fire for the Browns, so if Thrash can show anything, he has a chance to get some playing time.
Alex: Johnson tested as an athletic freak at the combine and got dropped into a TE room that could lose Darren Waller any minute.
His film score (51st percentile) is concerning, which explains why he is still available in the 4th round. Still, he’s a solid taxi squad guy.
Matt: There's room for both Ray Davis and Gore to make Buffalo's regular-season roster. The Bills sport little behind James Cook. If Gore does that, this pick is a win. Once there, he'd be an injury away from at least a minor role in an offense that ran more after switching OCs last year.
Gore's not an exciting player but saw terrific usage across four years at Southern Miss. He capped that with consecutive seasons of 1350+ scrimmage yards.
Alex: Rice is a bet on NFL bloodlines and target opportunity. The Chargers lost a majority of their 2023 targets in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler this offseason.
Rice was a 7th-round pick, so the likelihood of him hitting is very low. But this is the type of profile I like to take dart throws at in the 5th round of rookie drafts.
Kevin: The Eagles drafted Smith 33 picks ahead of Johnny Wilson, my selection at 4.09.
I’m more intrigued by Wilson’s profile as a supersized outside WR with red zone potential. But Smith certainly has a path to slot snaps given Philly’s lack of WR depth behind their top two.
Smith also looks like a potential asset in leagues that count return yards. He exits school with two career punt return scores and a per-return average of 10.2 yards.
Shane: The situation could not be any worse for Allen who will be stuck behind Breece Hall. But investing a 4th round pick means the Jets see Allen as a back-up who can step in if Hall gets hurt. I'll take the young age in Allen and know he could be startable if Hall goes down with an injury. Plus, he isn't a bad stash if the Jets let Hall go after 2025.
Jared: Travis is undersized and recovering from a broken leg suffered last November. But he offers dual-threat ability, throwing for 44 TDs and running for 14 over the past two seasons. And he landed on a Jets team with no succession plan behind 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers.
Matt: Pratt started all four years at Tulane and threw for 20+ TDs with 8 or fewer INTs each year. There's no "wow" here, but enough arm strength and mobility to make him an interesting prospect.
If Jordan Love keeps playing like he did over the second half of 2023, then he'll block Pratt from doing anything in Green Bay. But we'll see whether Pratt can draw other teams' interest via preseason action.
Alex: Ress-Zammit technically qualifies for rookie drafts and I love a good technicality. LRZ is a Welsh Rugby player who joined the NFL through the NFL's International Player Pathway Program. He is 6’3” and almost 200 lbs and was signed by KC as a running back.
We don’t love the depth at RB behind Pacheco, so there could be an opportunity for touches.
It was probably a wasted pick. But what if…
Jared: Kevin introduced me to Watson in the pre-draft process, pointing out his 90 catches over the past two seasons and strong Pro Day. He went undrafted but landed in Denver with HC Sean Payton, who's always heavily featured his RBs in the passing game
Shane: Exceptional athlete who has a clear path to making the Cowboys. I'll take the longshot.
Jared: Ali probably shouldn't hang around this long in rookie drafts considering he was RB12 in the NFL Draft -- ahead of guys like Kimani Vidal, Tyrone Tracy, and Dylan Laube.
Ali was a three-down back at Marshall and lands in a Ravens backfield with plenty of opportunity behind 30-year-old Derrick Henry.
Shane: UDFA who I graded pretty similarly to Aidan O'Connell. Has a shot to beat out Anthony Brown for the QB3 spot.
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