Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock Draft
We finally got the landing spots.
All the rookies have spots in our dynasty rankings and dynasty superflex rankings.
Now you're putting your dynasty strategy to work, adding rookies to your dynasty roster. So we gathered the staff to run a three-round dynasty superflex rookie mock draft.
See where the players fall and why certain Draft Sharks like -- or don't like -- a particular player.
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Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock Draft – Round 1
1.01 – Jared Smola: Bijan Robinson, Falcons (RB)
Anthony Richardson is tempting here. He has the potential to be a top-6 pick in superflex startup drafts 12 months from now -- a ceiling Robinson doesn't possess.
But Robinson's upside is plenty exciting. And he's a MUCH safer pick at the top of superflex rookie drafts.
1.02 – Kevin English: Anthony Richardson, Colts (QB)
As Jared noted, Richardson deserves consideration at the 1.01. He’s the easy 1.02 in superflex given the dynasty value in his upside to lead all QBs in rushing within a few seasons.
1.03 – Jared: Bryce Young, Panthers (QB)
All Young has ever done is put up big numbers. He threw for 4,528 yards and 58 TDs as a high school senior and then totaled 8,200 passing yards and 79 TDs across two seasons as Alabama's starter.
The fact that he dominated in the SEC (the NFL's minor league) makes me less concerned about his 5'10 frame.
That's the same height as Russell Wilson, who is a good comp for Young's fantasy football upside. Wilson has turned in eight top-10 fantasy seasons, including four inside the top 3.
1.04 – Alex Korff: C.J. Stroud, Texans (QB)
It feels like I have left every recent rookie mock draft with Stroud. At the 1.04, he is the default pick, but one you should be OK with landing.
Stroud was very productive at Ohio State. He has prototypical size at 6’3 and 214 pounds.
He has the draft capital we want after being selected No. 2 overall.
Don’t overthink this pick. Ignore the smoke screens. Stroud is the 1.04 (or higher) in superflex rookie drafts. There's big dynasty value here.
1.05 – Kevin: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (RB)
Gibbs totaled 103 catches across three college seasons, showing high-end speed and elusiveness. The Lions shocked us by selecting him 12th overall, but the move only solidified massive PPR expectations.
Gibbs should handle a good chunk of the 70 targets left behind by D’Andre Swift. That'll be the biggest driver of his dynasty value.
1.06 – Matt Schauf: Quentin Johnston, Chargers (WR)
I'm pretty sure I'm the only one on staff that has Johnston as the No. 1 rookie WR. But his landing spot -- especially vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's -- only solidified the way I already viewed them.
Does Johnston carry some downside risk? Sure. But what new NFL player doesn't?
His 6'3 frame differentiates him in this class of mostly tiny WRs. And Johnston loses no ground on the testing front -- especially with his explosive jumps (97th-percentile broad, 93rd-percentile vertical).
Sometimes drafting a guy over and over again -- as I have with QJ in these dynasty mock drafts -- makes you rethink him. My only concern here is that I might faint from overexcitement for the dynasty value.
1.07 – Alex: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (WR)
JSN will likely fall anywhere from pick 1.05 to 1.09 in most superflex rookie drafts.
His Seattle landing spot (at pick 21) makes many drafters hesitant, but I am not. With Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf locked in for 2023, there is little room for JSN to be fantasy relevant.
But there is a potential 2024 out in Lockett’s contract. Lockett will enter his age-32 season, and JSN will likely be able to slot into that role.
JSN was a strong prospect and the highest-rated WR in the rookie prospect model. Landing in Seattle certainly did not kill his dynasty value.
1.08 – C.H. Herms: Jordan Addison, Vikings (WR)
I had Addison as my WR2 in this class pre-draft. Landing with the Vikings didn't do anything to decrease his dynasty value.
If anything, it makes me even more excited knowing that he'll be opposite WR Justin Jefferson and TE T.J. Hockenson. I don't think anyone would be surprised to see Addison end up as the top-scoring rookie receiver for 2023.
1.09 – Alex: Zay Flowers, Ravens (WR)
Flowers landed one spot ahead of Jordan Addison in that Round 1 chain of four wideouts.
His landing spot offers less clarity than Addison’s, but there’s no shortage of long-term dynasty value.
The Ravens have made it clear they’re looking to pass more, switching OCs and adding pass catchers. How much they’ll lean that way is the big unknown.
Another is how high Flowers can climb up the WR depth chart. Will he slot behind Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman this year? Will he lead that group in fantasy points?
Either way, he’s an easy buy at this stage, with first-round draft capital and tremendous college production (despite poor QB play).
1.10 – Jared: Will Levis, Titans (QB)
There are plenty of warts on Levis' profile. And he certainly comes with high bust risk. But he also has the tools to develop into a strong asset in superflex dynasty leagues:
- prototypical size
- a huge arm
- above-average mobility
Levis' early Round 2 draft capital isn't ideal, but it's enough to make him a strong bet to get a starting opportunity in Tennessee, where Ryan Tannehill is entering the final year of his contract.
Ultimately, I'd rather take a shot on Levis in this superflex rookie draft than any of the remaining RBs, WRs, or TEs.
1.11 – Alex: Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks (RB)
This landing spot = sadness. But it’s at least as bad for Kenneth Walker as it is for Charbonnet.
The incumbent got 12 weeks as Seattle’s lead back (including the playoffs), and then the team decided to grab this Round 2 RB.
HC Pete Carroll immediately talked up the new guy’s receiving skills, pointing to early complementary usage at least. There’s also a chance that Charbonnet simply proves to be the better all-around back.
At some point, you bet on the talent over fretting the landing spot. This is that point for Charbonnet.
1.12 – Alex: Jonathan Mingo, Panthers (WR)
Mingo already had the size, testing numbers, and fun college tape to make him an intriguing prospect. Carolina boosted the intrigue by taking him as the first WR on Day 2.
That lands Mingo in a WR corps with 33-year-old (in August) Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, and Terrace Marshall as the early top 3. The team returns just 26.3% target share from last year at WR.
There’s opportunity. And there’s a brand new QB that Carolina jumped up to take first overall.
Intriguing prospect + draft capital + early opportunity + upside QB = a rookie worth grabbing.
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Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock Draft – Round 1
2.01 – Matt: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (TE)
We've written plenty about how good Kincaid's upside looks for a TE. Bills GM Brandon Beane clearly agrees: "He's not your standard Y tight end. He's gonna be flexed out more than necessarily you would do with [TE Dawson Knox]."
Knox, by the way, is no athletic slouch. He posted an 86th-percentile speed score as a 2019 prospect.
So if Beane views Kincaid as an athletic upgrade over Knox and Bills coaches scheme him that way ... that's exciting for Kincaid's dynasty value.
2.02 – Herms: Tyjae Spears, Titans (RB)
It's difficult to imagine Spears receiving a ton of opportunity in 2023 behind Derrick Henry on the Titans' depth chart.
But Henry's contract runs out at the end of the year, leaving Spears' chances of becoming the starter to skyrocket in 2024.
He's a solid investment as a long-term play despite the knee injury concerns. It'll require some patience, but Spears' pass-catching prowess and elusiveness are worth waiting for.
2.03 – Herms: Tank Bigsby, Jaguars (RB)
Jaguars HC Doug Pederson likes to utilize a committee approach.
Among his last five seasons as a HC, he has only given an RB more than 50% of the team’s carries once.
Travis Etienne is still likely to lead the backfield work, and his contract runs through 2024. But Bigsby has enough size, contact balance, and receiving chops to earn a serious share of opportunities.
Even if he doesn't offer fantasy teams much in 2023, there's reason to like Bigsby's dynasty value.
2.04 – Matt: Devon Achane, Dolphins (RB)
We all love the speed. The landing spot presents plenty of upside. Let's hit on one potential risk spot for Achane, though.
His Pro Football Focus receiving grade fell way off in 2022, with Isaiah Spiller gone. Achane also saw dips in average depth of target, yards per route, and yards after catch per reception.
Perhaps poor QB play was the main issue. We'll see what Dolphins coaches have to say -- and what they do -- about his passing-game skills.
Achane's potential dynasty value is well worth buying in this range. Just don't treat him like a sure thing.
2.05 – Matt: Kendre Miller, Saints (RB)
Miller caught just 29 passes across his three college seasons, including fewer than half of TCU's RB receptions last year.
Lackluster receiving production would severely limit his fantasy upside. But HC Dennis Allen says “I think he’s got that skill set.” And Miller says Saints coaches have already expressed excitement over his receiving ability.
There’s little question about his rushing upside. Miller averaged 6.7 yards per carry for his college career.
Landing in New Orleans might mean he's blocked by Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams for at least a year. But the Saints also might have drafted Miller in Round 3 because they expect a Kamara suspension.
Either way, opportunity (and dynasty value) awaits in 2024.
2.06 – Herms: Josh Downs, Colts (WR)
The Colts desperately needed WR help. Downs will certainly upgrade that position.
It's tough to say how much of an impact a slot receiver will have in new HC Shane Steichen's likely run-heavy offense, but Downs' path to a role only requires him to beat out free-agent signee Isaiah McKenzie (a player known for special teams contributions).
I'm glad to take a chance on a player like this in the mid-2nd round of a rookie draft. There should be some dynasty value ahead.
2.07 – Matt: Rashee Rice, Chiefs (WR)
Don't overrate K.C. as a landing spot.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's No. 36 finish among WRs in PPR points per game last year is the highest by any non-Tyreek Hill WR since Patrick Mahomes arrived. But there is opportunity in the unsettled WR corps.
Rice delivered after the catch and downfield last year, two potential boom areas with Mahomes. And he dominated the SMU offense in his final season: 31.2% target share, 31.4% reception share, 34.8% yardage share, and 29.4% TD share.
Rice also ranked third in the class in 2022 yards per team pass attempt.
2.08 – Jared: Roschon Johnson, Bears (RB)
Johnson slipped to Round 4 of the NFL Draft but joins a wide-open backfield alongside Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman.
The rookie might already be Chicago's best RB in the passing game, which could get him on the field early and drive Johnson's dynasty fantasy football value.
Herbert has two years left on his contract; Foreman just one.
2.09 – Jared: Marvin Mims, Broncos (WR)
I'm collecting Mims shares -- both in mock drafts and real ones.
The speedster has done nothing but rack up receiving yards since his high school days and was the very first draft pick of the Sean Payton Era in Denver.
Mims should push for No. 3 WR duties this season and has a good shot to climb to No. 2 on the depth chart in 2024, when Courtland Sutton is likely a goner.
The potential dynasty fantasy football value is exciting.
2.10 – Alex: Jayden Reed, Packers (WR)
Reed has set up as a rookie-draft value since landing in Round 2 of the NFL Draft.
Matt Schneidman of The Athletic expects Reed and Samori Toure to compete for the No. 3 WR spot this season. Toure is a second-year former seventh-round pick with 5 receptions to date. Reed’s draft capital says the team hopes he’ll win that battle.
Reed delivered right away at both of his college stops and looks like an easy slot fit between Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
We’ll see how the target shares sort out with a new QB and young corps of pass catchers. That should give us an early glimpse of Reed's dynasty value.
2.11 – Jared: Jalin Hyatt, Giants (WR)
Hyatt surprisingly sunk to the third round of the NFL Draft but landed in a nice spot.
The Giants have plenty of quantity but not much quality at WR. And HC Brian Daboll is a proven talent maximizer.
You might need to be patient for dynasty value with Hyatt, a raw route runner coming from a funky college offense. But he has a shot to develop into the Giants' lead receiver by 2024.
2.12 – Kevin: Michael Mayer, Raiders (TE)
I’m not sure anyone expected Mayer, the most productive TE in this class, to slip into Round 2. But the landing spot is solid for Year 1 fantasy upside and long-term dynasty value, especially following the offseason losses of Darren Waller and Foster Moreau.
Sure, Vegas brings long-term QB questions. But Mayer’s a polished prospect who should act as a top-3 target annually.
Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock Draft – Round 3
3.01 – Kevin: Cedric Tillman, Browns (WR)
A Round 2 NFL Draft pick in the eyes of most analysts, Tillman instead dropped to Round 3 (WR11). It’s not a total surprise given his one season of big-time production (65-1,081-12 in 2021).
An ankle injury ruined his 2022, but Tillman showed he’s healthy by posting a strong 8.67 relative athletic score at the NFL Combine.
I love the landing spot in Cleveland, where Tillman could earn a starting role alongside Deshaun Watson by the end of 2024. That would seriously boost his dynasty value.
3.02 – Kevin: Sam LaPorta, Lions (TE)
LaPorta racked up 111-1,327-4 receiving over the past two seasons, despite an awful Iowa offense. Detroit then made him the second TE off the board in early Round 2.
Given weak competition (Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra, James Mitchell), LaPorta’s exciting run-after-catch ability will have a chance to shine immediately.
3.03 – Herms: Hendon Hooker, Lions (QB)
2023 is likely to be a redshirt year as Hooker continues to rehab his torn ACL.
I'm not too excited about a QB with third-round NFL draft capital, but many media pundits and draftniks had the former Tennessee signal-caller projected as a first-rounder.
The Lions have a potential out in Jared Goff's contract at the end of 2023. Should the franchise choose to let him go and roll with Hooker, we'd be talking about a starter in an exciting up-and-coming offense.
Of course, a new contract for Goff would kill Hooker's dynasty value.
3.04 – Herms: Luke Musgrave, Packers (TE)
I wish the Packers hadn't also drafted TE Tucker Kraft. His presence could complicate things for Musgrave.
Even so, there's plenty of intrigue with this gifted athlete that registered a 9.78 relative athletic score at the NFL Combine.
Musgrave is a catch-first TE with the upside to become a primary target over the middle for QB Jordan Love.
3.05 – Herms: Zach Evans, Rams (RB)
I fell in love with Evans in the pre-draft process. Unfortunately, the NFL didn't seem to like him as much.
Landing with the Rams in the sixth round isn't all bad news though.
There isn't a ton of competition behind Cam Akers. And in the third round of a rookie draft, I'll take a chance on a guy with strong vision and a viable path to seizing an RB2 role from the jump.
This is a fairly low-risk bet in search of Evans' dynasty value.
3.06 – Alex: Israel Abanikanda, Jets (RB)
Abanikanda could have fared better in draft capital and landing spot. He lasted until Round 5, as the ninth RB drafted.
Going to the Jets could mean some early opportunity. Breece Hall is working back from an ACL tear, and GM Joe Douglas recently made fantasy football news by calling him merely a “possibility” for Week 1.
If Hall is at all limited to start the season, Abanikanda would compete with the penetrable duo of Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight for opportunities.
Hall’s presence lowers the long-term ceiling here, though.
3.07 – Herms: Nathaniel Dell, Texans (WR)
Do I like Dell because he's ironically nicknamed "Tank" at 5’8 and 165 pounds? Yes.
But he's also a fairly talented player who impressed folks at the Senior Bowl.
It's also apparent that he and No. 2 overall pick QB C.J. Stroud have already built a good rapport dating back to the NFL Combine.
Give me a shot on a small dude fresh off back-to-back 1,300-yard seasons in college with third-round NFL Draft capital.
3.08 – Kevin: Michael Wilson, Cardinals (WR)
Wilson brings NFL-caliber size and route running. The issue is health.
The 23-year-old has missed 16 games over the past three seasons (Jones foot fracture).
There might be early opportunity if the Cardinals trade DeAndre Hopkins. Ultimately, though, you’re stashing the Round 3 pick on the chance he becomes a starter in 2024.
3.09 – Matt: Chase Brown, Bengals (RB)
Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams have had time to prove they deserve work. Neither has done so.
With Samaje Perine gone, I'll take a shot on the potential next handcuff to Joe Mixon.
Brown took a while to break out in college. But he had a workhorse final season (328 carries, 27 catches, 13 total TDs) and then rocked a 4.43-second 40 time to deliver an 89th-percentile speed score at the Scouting Combine.
3.10 – Jared: DeWayne McBride, Vikings (RB)
McBride is a seventh-rounder with basically nothing on his pass-catching resume.
But he ripped off 3,084 yards and 32 TDs on 7.1 yards per carry at UAB over the past two seasons, ranking top 11 in the nation in Pro Football Focus rushing grade and elusive rating both years.
Minnesota's backfield is crowded right now, but Dalvin Cook has been bandied about as a trade candidate. If that comes to fruition, McBride's dynasty value would appreciate significantly.
3.11 – Kevin: Kayshon Boutte, Patriots (WR)
Sure, it’s been a while. But Boutte was the consensus No. 1 WR in Louisiana entering college and led LSU in receiving as a freshman.
Injuries and character concerns have dogged him since then. But at this point, he’s a no-risk, all-upside flier.
New England’s lackluster depth chart affords a chance at Year 1 snaps.
3.12 – Matt: Puka Nacua, Rams (WR)
Just about any WR can make sense at this stage, as long as you can pick out something you like.
Even though Nacua spent four years in college, he was just 19 for his 2021 breakout. The size (6'2, 210) is good. The speed (4.62-second 40 time) could be better.
The landing spot might be his true differentiator, though. Nacua's not likely to work past Van Jefferson this season. Perhaps he doesn't even overtake Tutu Atwell. But that's lighter competition than most fifth-round picks will face.
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