FF Tips

Early Look at Undervalued and Overvalued Players

By Jared Smola 8:06am EDT 6/26/18


Believe it or not, fantasy football drafts are already firing off. A lot of them, in fact. There have already been over 1,800 MFL10 drafts alone.

Whether you’re crazy enough to partake in these drafts or not, there’s a benefit for everyone: reliable ADP data.

So let’s compare where guys are going in drafts to where they sit in our PPR rankings and pick out some early undervalued and overvalued players.

Note: ADPs are taken from June MFL10 drafts.


UNDERVALUED

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Draft Sharks Rank: 12

ADP Rank: 16

Mahomes’ price tag is reasonable considering he’s made just 1 NFL start. But his sky-high ceiling makes him a guy worth targeting.

First, consider his skill set. He already possesses 1 of the best arms in the game. (Check out this bullet down the seam in last year’s season finale if you don’t believe me.) And he has the athleticism to add value on the ground. Mahomes racked up 741 rushing yards and 22 TDs over his final 2 college seasons and tested as a 70th percentile athlete at last year’s Combine.

Now add an explosive group of pass-catchers to the equation. Tyreek Hill might just be the game’s premier big-play WR. Travis Kelce leads all TEs with 2,163 yards over the past 2 seasons. Kareem Hunt tallied 455 yards on 8.6 yards per catch as a rookie. And the Chiefs added former 4th overall pick Sammy Watkins in free agency.

This group should be even better than the one that helped Alex Smith to a 4th-place fantasy finish last year. Mahomes’ ceiling extends at least that high.


Alex Smith, QB, Redskins

DS Rank: 15

ADP Rank: 19

Kirk Cousins scored as a top 9 QB in each of the past 3 seasons, including 2 straight top-5 finishes, in the same Jay Gruden-led offense that Smith is about to take over.

In fact, this year’s offense might be better than the 1 Cousins piloted last year. Washington added speedy WR Paul Richardson in free agency and will hopefully get more from TE Jordan Reed, who caught just 27 balls in 6 games last season.

And Smith might just be an upgrade on Cousins. The former Chief ranked higher in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and Pro Football Focus’ passing grades last year. Smith definitely brings more rushing upside, averaging 329 yards on the ground over the past 3 seasons vs. Cousins’ 108.


Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals

DS Rank: 11

ADP Rank: 15

Mixon’s rookie year was a disappointment, no doubt. He carried just 178 times, averaged an ugly 3.5 yards per carry and finished 30th among RBs in PPR points.

He didn't get much help, though. Cincinnati’s offensive line ranked 24th in Adjusted Line Yards. And the Bengals ran a league-low 927 offensive snaps.

The line should be better this season with the additions of LT Cordy Glenn and 1st-round rookie C Billy Price. And the play volume should get a big boost. Cincy averaged 1,024 plays over the previous 3 seasons. That’s about a game-and-a-half worth of snaps that went missing last year.

We currently have Mixon projected for 278 touches this season — 70 more than he saw last season. That type of volume for a guy who flashed big talent throughout his college career and at times as a rookie gives Mixon a good shot at RB1 production this year.


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