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End-of-July ADP Risers and Fallers

By Jared Smola 9:08am EDT 8/1/16

The biggest ADP mover over the past 2 weeks? No surprise: Browns WR Josh Gordon, who was reinstated (and suspended 4 games) on July 25.

Gordon was just a late-round flier before that news, with an ADP in the 17th round. That’s vaulted all the way into the 7th over the last few days of July. Teammate Corey Coleman’s price tag, meanwhile, has dropped from the late 6th round to the early 8th.

Let’s check out those guys and the rest of the biggest ADP risers and fallers at the end of July.


Risers

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Jets

Mid-July ADP: 193

Late-July ADP: 162

Fitzpatrick’s ADP climb might not be done yet, just 5 days after he re-signed. But he still represents nice value right now as the 22nd QB off the board. He sits 3 spots higher in our rankings.


DeAngelo Williams, RB, Steelers

Mid-July ADP: 131

Late-July ADP: 79

Le’Veon Bell’s suspension has boosted Williams into the middle of the 7th round. That’s a fair price for a guy who should produce RB1 numbers over the first 4 games and then be a high-upside handcuff the rest of the way.


Arian Foster, RB, Dolphins

Mid-July ADP: 133

Late-July ADP: 89

Foster is now going just 2 picks behind teammate Jay Ajayi. The veteran figures to pass the youngster in ADP before long. We’re not buying Foster at this price tag.


Bilal Powell, RB, Jets

Mid-July ADP: 137

Late-July ADP: 123

There’s been talk of a “timeshare system” in the Jets backfield this season. That’d feature Matt Forte and Powell, who is coming off a quasi-breakout 2015 season. He ranked 7th among RBs in PPR points from Week 11 to 16.


Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles

Mid-July ADP: 178

Late-July ADP: 152

We highlighted Sproles as a strong value last week. Even at this elevated price tag, he’s a nice pick as the 51st RB off the board.


Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs

Mid-July ADP: 229

Late-July ADP: 188

Ware was going about 3 rounds later than Charcandrick West a couple of weeks ago. Now he’s going a round-and-a-half earlier than his backfield mate. Insider Adam Teicher expects Ware to win Kansas City’s #2 RB job.


Josh Gordon, WR, Browns

Mid-July ADP: 195

Late-July ADP: 82

Gordon has been just the 40th WR off the board in recent drafts. That’s 8 spots lower than he sits in our PPR rankings and is a good price for a guy with massive upside. We’ll see if Gordon’s quad injury pushes him further down draft boards.


Phillip Dorsett, WR, Colts

Mid-July ADP: 134

Late-July ADP: 116

Dorsett was talked up throughout the spring, and the buzz has continued into the summer. That’s bumped his ADP up a round-and-a-half. He still makes sense as an upside bench stash as the 52nd WR off the board.


Bruce Ellington, WR, 49ers

Mid-July ADP: 200

Late-July ADP: 175

Ellington was also a “riser” in the mid-July ADP report. He climbed 4-and-a-half rounds over the course of the past month. The former 4th-round pick had a strong spring and might be the favorite for the #2 WR gig.


Anquan Boldin, WR, Lions

Mid-July ADP: 216

Late-July ADP: 194

Boldin inked a 1-year deal with Detroit on July 26. The 35-year-old figures to slide in as the #3 WR and could be as low as 5th in line for targets.


Will Tye, TE, Giants

Mid-July ADP: 182

Late-July ADP: 175

Tye has been flying under the radar despite ranking 8th among TEs in PPR points over the 2nd half of the season. He remains a nice value at his 15th-round ADP.


Richard Rodgers, TE, Packers

Mid-July ADP: 231

Late-July ADP: 214

Rodgers dropped weight this offseason and is getting a head start on Jared Cook, who’s still sidelined after June foot surgery.


Fallers

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers

Mid-July ADP: 4

Late-July ADP: 16

Bell would make a lot of sense in the middle of the 2nd round if it was just the 4-game suspension we had to worry about. But last year’s knee injury adds considerable risk to his outlook. Bell was at least ready for the start of training camp.


Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins

Mid-July ADP: 60

Late-July ADP: 87

Ajayi’s ADP has sunk over 2 full rounds since Miami added Arian Foster. The new teammates are now going within 2 picks of each other. We’d much rather own Ajayi, who was a production machine in college and has much fresher legs. We’ll see about the knee issue that kept him out of practice on the 1st day of August.


Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens

Mid-July ADP: 127

Late-July ADP: 142

The rookie went down with a sprained MCL on July 28 and could be sidelined for a couple of weeks. That hurts his chances of carving out an early-season role. Dixon is still a nice bench stash who could emerge as Baltimore’s lead back at some point this year.


Karlos Williams, RB, Bills

Mid-July ADP: 136

Late-July ADP: 214

Williams also appeared in our mid-July ADP report. He dropped more than 2 rounds over the first 2 weeks of the month and another 6-and-a-half over the final 2 weeks. We actually like him at this dirt-cheap price, especially in best-ball leagues. He’s suspended 4 games and still needs to get in shape, but Williams could be an asset over the 2nd half of the season.


Kenyan Drake, RB, Dolphins

Mid-July ADP: 183

Late-July ADP: 234

Drake’s no higher than 3rd on Miami’s depth chart but is behind a couple of guys in Jay Ajayi and Arian Foster with plenty of injury history. The rookie could still make an impact this season but is tough to roster outside of super deep leagues.


Corey Coleman, WR, Browns

Mid-July ADP: 71

Late-July ADP: 85

Volume was the biggest thing working in Coleman’s favor this season. That took a significant hit with the return of WR Josh Gordon. Coleman has recently been the 42nd WR off the board, on average. That’s 2 spots lower than he sits in our PPR rankings.


Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Titans

Mid-July ADP: 103

Late-July ADP: 115

Perhaps the arrival of Andre Johnson is a bad sign of Green-Beckham, who had a disappointing spring. But if he can’t beat out the 35-year-old, he’s not ready to be a fantasy factor anyway. DGB showed up to training camp in good shape.


Steve Smith, WR, Ravens

Mid-July ADP: 123

Late-July ADP: 132

Still recovering from last year’s torn Achilles, Smith opened training camp on the active/PUP list. We’re rooting for a successful comeback, but he shouldn’t be drafted as more than a bench stash.


Josh Doctson, WR, Redskins

Mid-July ADP: 136

Late-July ADP: 153

An Achilles issue that cost Doctson time this spring landed him on the PUP list to begin training camp. The rookie is missing valuable reps and isn’t expected to open the season higher than 4th on the depth chart.


Will Fuller, WR, Texans

Mid-July ADP: 158

Late-July ADP: 177

Jaelen Strong has been the star of Houston’s offseason so far and might be the favorite for the #2 WR job. Fuller won’t be a fantasy option if he’s 3rd or lower on the depth chart in a run-heavy offense.


Breshad Perriman, WR, Ravens

Mid-July ADP: 167

Late-July ADP: 198

Perriman started camp on the PUP list but is expected to be ready by Week 1. That makes him worth a shot at this depressed price tag. Perriman is the most physically gifted WR in Baltimore and has the highest fantasy ceiling of the group.


Jeff Janis, WR, Packers

Mid-July ADP: 191

Late-July ADP: 215

Janis’ monster playoff performance last year is getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He hasn’t generated any hype early in training camp but remains in the mix for the #3 WR spot.


Jared Cook, TE, Packers

Mid-July ADP: 172

Late-July ADP: 194

Cook remains sidelined after undergoing June foot surgery and has no timetable for return. He needs to get on the field soon if he wants to make an early-season impact with his new team.

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