Fantasy Takeaways from Week 16 Usage

By Jared Smola 9:51am EST 12/28/22

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Arizona Cardinals

RB snap rates:

James Conner - 96%
Keaontay Ingram - 9%

Route rates:

James Conner - 68%
Keaontay Ingram - 6%

DeAndre Hopkins - 96%
Greg Dortch - 78%
Marquise Brown - 72%
A.J. Green - 20%
Robbie Anderson - 4%

Trey McBride - 84%
Maxx Williams - 10%
Stephen Anderson - 8%

Takeaways:

• Brown said that his playing time was scaled back in this one because he was late to a team meeting.
• Dortch TOTALED 7 routes and 0 targets over his previous 2 games. I wouldn’t trust him in Week 17 fantasy lineups.

Atlanta Falcons

RB snap rates:

Tyler Allgeier - 59%
Cordarrelle Patterson - 37%
Avery Williams - 17%

Route rates:

Tyler Allgeier - 54%
Cordarrelle Patterson - 41%
Avery Williams - 13%

Olamide Zaccheaus - 92%
Drake London - 87%
Damiere Byrd - 49%
KhaDarel Hodge - 10%
Frank Darby - 5%

Parker Hesse - 33%
MyCole Pruitt - 33%
Anthony Firkser - 28%

Takeaways:

• Allgeier has set season highs in back-to-back weeks with 17 and then 18 carries. He also set a season high with 5 targets in this one and ran more routes than Patterson.
• London has now been targeted on 20 of QB Desmond Ridder’s 59 passes over the last 2 weeks – a massive 34% target share.

Baltimore Ravens

RB snap rates:

J.K. Dobbins - 42%
Gus Edwards - 40%
Justice Hill - 13%

Route rates:

J.K. Dobbins - 33%
Justice Hill - 28%
Gus Edwards - 17%

Demarcus Robinson - 44%
DeSean Jackson - 44%
Sammy Watkins - 44%

Mark Andrews - 100%
Josh Oliver 56%
Isaiah Likely - 44%

Takeaways:

• Ravens RB opportunities over the last 3 weeks:
  • Dobbins - 40 carries, 2 targets
  • Edwards - 31 carries, 0 targets
  • Hill - 1 carry, 2 targets

Buffalo Bills

RB snap rates:

Devin Singletary - 58%
James Cook - 41%
Nyheim Hines - 5%

Routes rates:

Devin Singletary - 44%
James Cook - 36%
Nyheim Hines - 6%

Gabriel Davis - 92%
Stefon Diggs - 83%
Khalil Shakir - 42%
Isaiah McKenzie - 31%
Cole Beasley - 11%

Dawson Knox - 67%
Quintin Morris - 36%

Takeaways:

• Shakir ran more routes than McKenzie in this one. I'm guessing it was a one-off, matchup-based thing, but it’s worth monitoring going forward and potentially keeping in mind for playoff fantasy contests.
• Knox has averaged 6.7 targets on a 21.5% share over the last 3 games.

Carolina Panthers

RB snap rates:

Chuba Hubbard - 46%
D’Onta Foreman - 44%
Raheem Blackshear - 9%

Routes rates:

Chuba Hubbard - 38%
D’Onta Foreman - 23%
Raheem Blackshear - 12%

D.J. Moore - 100%
Terrace Marshall - 96%
Laviska Shenault - 42%
Shi Smith - 31%

Tommy Tremble - 50%
Ian Thomas - 42%
Stephen Sullivan - 27%

Takeaways:

• Panthers RB opportunities over the last 4 games:
  • Foreman - 76 carries, 1 target
  • Hubbard - 47 carries, 6 targets
  • Blackshear - 7 carries, 4 targets
• Moore’s target shares from Sam Darnold:
  • Week 12 - 32%
  • Week 14 - 13%
  • Week 15 - 26%
  • Week 16 - 32%

Chicago Bears

RB snap rates:

David Montgomery - 68%
Khalil Herbert - 40%

Route rates:

David Montgomery - 57%
Khalil Herbert - 34%

Byron Pringle - 91%
Dante Pettis - 83%
Velus Jones - 54%
N’Keal Harry - 37%

Cole Kmet - 89%
Ryan Griffin - 14%

Takeaways:

• Montgomery out-carried Herbert 16 to 6 and out-targeted him 4 to 3.
• Kmet led the Bears with 6 targets (21% share) in this one. He’s averaging 5.9 targets on a 24% share over his last 7 games.

Cincinnati Bengals

RB snap rates:

Joe Mixon - 58%
Samaje Perine - 42%

Route rates:

Joe Mixon - 41%
Samaje Perine - 38%

Ja’Marr Chase - 100%
Tee Higgins - 97%
Tyler Boyd - 64%
Trenton Irwin - 47%

Mitchell Wilcox - 55%
Devin Asiasi - 28%

Takeaways:

• Mixon still hasn’t gotten back to pre-concussion playing time, but he’s tallied 27 carries and 15 targets over the last 2 weeks to Perine’s 11 carries and 5 targets.
• Boyd strangely ceded routes to Irwin, who capitalized with a 3-45-2 line on 4 targets. Boyd saw a matching 4 targets but finished with just 21 yards on 3 catches. I’d expect Boyd to get back to full playing time going forward, but this makes him tough to trust in Week 17 fantasy lineups.

Cleveland Browns

RB snap rates:

Nick Chubb - 53%
Kareem Hunt - 47%
D’Ernest Johnson - 3%

Route rates:

Kareem Hunt - 67%
Nick Chubb - 22%
D’Ernest Johnson - 3%

Donovan Peoples-Jones - 97%
Amari Cooper - 89%
David Bell - 78%
Michael Woods - 11%

David Njoku - 89%
Harrison Bryant - 11%

Takeaways:

• Targets over the last 3 games:
  • Cooper - 23 (22.5% share)
  • Peoples-Jones - 21 (20.6%)
  • Njoku - 20 (19.6%)

Dallas Cowboys

RB snap rates:

Tony Pollard - 53%
Ezekiel Elliott - 47%

Route rates:

Tony Pollard - 58%
Ezekiel Elliott - 36%

Michael Gallup - 93%
CeeDee Lamb - 91%
Noah Brown - 78%
T.Y. Hilton - 13%
KaVontae Turpin - 7%

Dalton Schultz - 87%
Jake Ferguson - 16%
Peyton Hendershot - 4%
Sean McKeon - 2%

Takeaways:

• Schultz has seen just 4 targets in back-to-back games, drawing a 12% target share over that span. He’s registered 89% and 87% route rates in those games, though, keeping him in the TE1 mix for Week 17.

Denver Broncos

RB snap rates:

Latavius Murray - 46%
Chase Edmonds - 42%
Marlon Mack - 15%

Route rates:

Latavius Murray - 39%
Chase Edmonds - 39%
Marlon Mack - 14%

Jerry Jeudy - 95%
Courtland Sutton - 89%
Freddie Swain - 73%
Jalen Virgil - 16%
Montrell Washington - 7%

Greg Dulcich - 80% (injured)
Eric Saubert - 27%
Eric Tomlinson - 5%

Takeaways:

• Most of Edmonds’ playing time came late in this blowout loss. RB opportunities at halftime:
  • Murray - 6 carries, 1 target
  • Edmonds - 1 carry, 0 targets
  • Mack - 0 carries, 0 targets
• An 89% route rate and 7 targets (20% share) for Sutton in his return from a hamstring injury.

Detroit Lions

RB snap rates:

D’Andre Swift - 56%
Jamaal Williams - 24%
Justin Jackson - 21%

Route rates:

D’Andre Swift - 52%
Justin Jackson - 20%
Jamaal Williams - 12%

Amon-Ra St. Brown - 90%
D.J. Chark - 82%
Josh Reynolds - 62%
Kalif Raymond - 26%
Jameson Williams - 18%

Shane Zylstra - 48%
James Mitchell - 22%
Brock Wright - 22%
Garrett Griffin - 6%

Takeaways:

• Swift disappointed in the box score and finished with just 4 carries and 5 targets. But his 56% snap rate was his highest since Week 1. The 52% route rate was his highest since Week 8.

Green Bay Packers

RB snap rates:

A.J. Dillon - 57%
Aaron Jones - 37% (injured)
Patrick Taylor - 9%

Route rates:

A.J. Dillon - 44%
Aaron Jones - 28% (injured)
Patrick Taylor - 2%

Allen Lazard - 95%
Romeo Doubs - 60%
Randall Cobb - 51%
Christian Watson - 47% (injured)
Samori Toure - 7%

Robert Tonyan - 60%
Marcedes Lewis - 30%
Josiah Deguara - 19%
Tyler Davis - 5%

Takeaways:

• Jones tweaked his left ankle on his 1st carry of the 2nd half and was limited the rest of the way. But Dillon out-carried Jones 3 to 2 and out-targeted him 2 to 1 in the 1st half.
• Doubs took over for the injured Watson in 2-WR sets in the 2nd half, finishing with a 3-36 line on 6 targets (16% share).

Houston Texans

RB snap rates:

Royce Freeman - 55%
Dare Ogunbowale - 28%
Rex Burkhead - 26%

Route rates:

Rex Burkhead - 26%
Royce Freeman - 24%
Dare Ogunbowale - 16%

Chris Moore - 92%
Brandin Cooks - 76%
Phillip Dorsett - 61%
Amari Rodgers - 24%

Jordan Akins - 55%
Brevin Jordan - 37%
Teagan Quitoriano - 21%

Takeaways:

• RB opportunities over the last 2 weeks:
  • Freeman - 27 carries, 2 targets
  • Ogunbowale - 16 carries, 0 targets
  • Burkhead - 0 carries, 6 targets
• Cooks posted a lower-than-usual 76% route rate in his return but drew 9 targets for a 28% share.

Indianapolis Colts

RB snap rates:

Zack Moss - 69%
Deon Jackson - 15%
Jordan Wilkins - 15%

Route rates:

Zack Moss - 46%
Deon Jackson - 22%
Jordan Wilkins - 14%

Michael Pittman - 100%
Parris Campbell - 89%
Alec Pierce - 78%
Ashton Dulin - 19% (injured)

Jelani Woods - 62%
Mo Alie-Cox - 41%

Takeaways:

• Moss controlled Indy’s backfield for the 2nd straight week, handling 12 of 13 RB carries in his one. He drew just 1 of 5 RB targets but easily led the backfield in routes.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB snap rates:

Travis Etienne - 71%
JaMycal Hasty - 25%
Snoop Conner - 8%

Route rates:

Travis Etienne - 54%
JaMycal Hasty - 30%
Snoop Conner - 3%

Christian Kirk - 97%
Zay Jones - 95%
Marvin Jones - 65%
Jamal Agnew - 16%
Tim Jones - 14%

Evan Engram - 76%
Dan Arnold - 16%
Chris Manhertz - 16%

Takeaways:

• Etienne has played 71%+ of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps in 8 straight healthy games.
• Engram has racked up 40 targets on a 27% target share over his last 4 outings.

Kansas City Chiefs

RB snap rates:

Isiah Pacheco - 49%
Jerick McKinnon - 47%
Ronald Jones - 2%

Route rates:

Jerick McKinnon - 61%
Isiah Pacheco - 30%
Ronald Jones - 0%

JuJu Smith-Schuster - 85%
Justin Watson - 70%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 55%
Kadarius Toney - 30%
Skyy Moore - 18%

Travis Kelce - 88%
Noah Gray - 39%
Blake Bell - 6%

Takeaways:

• The Chiefs ran a season-low 51 offensive plays in this one.
• This was the 1st time all season that Valdes-Scantling did not finish top 2 among Chiefs WRs in routes.

Las Vegas Raiders

RB snap rates:

Josh Jacobs - 81%
Ameer Abdullah - 19%
Brandon Bolden - 4%

Route rates:

Josh Jacobs - 54%
Ameer Abdullah - 29%
Brandon Bolden - 3%

Davante Adams - 94%
Mack Hollins - 91%
Hunter Renfrow - 66%
Keelan Cole - 20%

Darren Waller - 49%
Foster Moreau - 40%

Takeaways:

• Jacobs has averaged just 2.0 targets over his last 4 games – way down from his 5.1 over his previous 9.
• Adams has disappointed in 3 straight but still averaged 8.3 targets on a 28% share over that span.
• Waller’s route rate actually sunk from a 66% mark in his Week 15 return.

Los Angeles Chargers

RB snap rates:

Austin Ekeler - 60%
Joshua Kelley - 34%
Larry Rountree - 6%

Route rates:

Austin Ekeler - 59%
Joshua Kelley - 35%
Larry Rountree - 3%

Mike Williams - 92%
Keenan Allen - 89%
Josh Palmer - 68%
DeAndre Carter - 14%

Gerald Everett - 51%
Donald Parham - 30%
Tre McKitty - 27%
Stone Smartt - 8%

Takeaways:

• Williams has averaged an underwhelming 6.0 targets on a 14.5% target share in 3 games back from his high-ankle sprain.
• Allen, meanwhile, has racked up 37 targets (29.8% share) over those 3 games
• Everett finished without a target and registered his lowest route rate in a healthy game all season. He’ll be tough to trust in Week 17 fantasy lineups.

Los Angeles Rams

RB snap rates:

Cam Akers - 75%
Kyren Williams - 12%
Malcolm Brown - 11%
Ronnie Rivers - 2%

Route rates:

Cam Akers - 60%
Malcolm Brown - 10%
Kyren Williams - 7%
Ronnie Rivers - 0%

Van Jefferson - 100%
Tutu Atwell - 90%
Brandon Powell - 57%
Lance McCutcheon - 10%

Tyler Higbee - 80%
Brycen Hopkins - 40%

Takeaways:

• Akers’ massive game didn’t come out of nowhere. We noted in this space last week that his 76% snap rate was a season high. He basically matched that vs. Denver – and got positive game script, leading him to 23 carries.
• Higbee has registered 70%, 54% and 80% route rates the last 3 weeks, drawing 3, 5 and 11 targets. He’s certainly not a comfortable Week 17 fantasy play, but he’s at least trending in the right direction.

Miami Dolphins

RB snap rates:

Jeff Wilson - 60%
Raheem Mostert - 52%

Route rates:

Jeff Wilson - 66%
Raheem Mostert - 52%

Tyreek Hill - 97%
Jaylen Waddle - 86%
Trent Sherfield - 48%
Cedrick Wilson - 17%
Braylon Sanders - 14%

Mike Gesicki - 38%
Durham Smythe - 28%

Takeaways:

• Miami’s backfield continues to yoyo, with Wilson leading in snaps and carries (9 to 8). Mostert out-targeted Wilson 3 to 2. Neither guy will be more than a RB3 option in Week 17.

Minnesota Vikings

RB snap rates:

Dalvin Cook - 79%
Alexander Mattison - 21%

Route rates:

Dalvin Cook - 43%
Alexander Mattison - 15%

Justin Jefferson - 100%
Adam Thielen - 91%
K.J. Osborn - 79%

T.J. Hockenson - 87%
Johnny Mundt - 13%

Takeaways:

• Osborn slammed back to earth, tallying just 4 targets for an 8% share.

New England Patriots

RB snap rates:

Rhamondre Stevenson - 91%
Kevin Harris - 7%
Pierre Strong - 4%

Route rates:

Rhamondre Stevenson - 75%
Pierre Strong - 5%
Kevin Harris - 3%

Jakobi Meyers - 100%
Tyquan Thornton - 93%
Kendrick Bourne - 60%
Nelson Agholor - 40%
Marcus Jones - 3%

Jonnu Smith - 55% (injured)
Scotty Washington - 28%
Hunter Henry - 3% (injured)

Takeaways:

• Negative game script nuked Stevenson’s fantasy production, but he got back to elite usage in terms of snap and route rate.
• Meyers also returned to a full-time role after being limited last week off the concussion. He caught 6 of 7 targets for 83 yards and a score.

New Orleans Saints

RB snap rates:

Alvin Kamara - 70%
David Johnson - 28%

Route rates:

Alvin Kamara - 73%
David Johnson - 27%

Rashid Shaheed - 93%
Tre’Quan Smith - 87%
Keith Kirkwood - 53%
Marquez Callaway - 13%
Kirk Merritt - 7%

Juwan Johnson - 67%
Taysom Hill - 40%
Adam Trautman - 33%

Takeaways:

• New Orleans had just 15 dropbacks in this blizzard game, but it was nice to see Kamara run a route on 11 of those.

New York Giants

RB snap rates:

Saquon Barkley - 91%
Matt Breida - 16%
Gary Brightwell - 1%

Route rates:

Saquon Barkley - 81%
Matt Breida - 12%
Gary Brightwell - 0%

Darius Slayton - 98%
Isaiah Hodgins - 96%
Richie James - 83%
Marcus Johnson - 6%
Kenny Golladay - 4%

Daniel Bellinger - 94%
Nick Vannett - 6%

Takeaways:

• The Giants are emptying Barkley’s tank down the stretch, feeding him 32 carries and 18 targets on an 89% snap rate over the past 2 weeks.
• Targets over the last 4 games:
  • James - 29 (21.2% share)
  • Hodgins - 27 (19.7%)
  • Slayton - 24 (17.5%)

New York Jets

RB snap rates:

Zonovan Knight - 41%
Michael Carter - 39%
Ty Johnson - 20%

Route rates:

Michael Carter - 41%
Zonovan Knight - 22%
Ty Johnson - 15%

Corey Davis - 100%
Garrett Wilson - 98%
Elijah Moore - 88%

Tyler Conklin - 73%
C.J. Uzomah - 34%

Takeaways:

• QB Mike White has been medically cleared to save this Jets offense.

Philadelphia Eagles

RB snap rates:

Miles Sanders - 54%
Kenneth Gainwell - 44%
Boston Scott - 4%

Route rates:

Kenneth Gainwell - 55%
Miles Sanders - 30%
Boston Scott - 5%

DeVonta Smith - 98%
A.J. Brown - 95%
Quez Watkins - 73%
Zach Pascal - 23%

Dallas Goedert - 89%
Jack Stoll - 11%
Grant Calcaterra - 5%

Takeaways:

• Although he drew just 3 targets (7.5% share), Goedert’s 89% route rate makes him a comfortable Week 17 fantasy play.

Pittsburgh Steelers

RB snap rates:

Najee Harris - 72%
Jaylen Warren - 31%

Route rates:

Najee Harris - 63%
Jaylen Warren - 29%

Diontae Johnson - 98%
George Pickens - 95%
Steven Sims - 59%
Gunner Olszewski - 5%
Miles Boykin - 5%

Pat Freiermuth - 88%
Zach Gentry - 24%
Connor Heyward - 15%

Takeaways:

• Harris has averaged 17.3 carries and 3.3 targets over his last 4 games.
• After a 2-game lull, Freiermuth has registered 70% and 88% route rates the past 2 weeks. He posted a 7-66 line on 8 targets (20.5% share) in the win over Vegas.

San Francisco 49ers

RB snap rates:

Christian McCaffrey - 75%
Tyrion Davis-Price - 25%

Route rates:

Christian McCaffrey - 78%
Tyrion Davis-Price - 15%

Brandon Aiyuk - 96%
Jauan Jennings - 89%
Ray-Ray McCloud - 37%
Danny Gray - 4%

George Kittle - 100%
Tyler Kroft - 26%

Takeaways:

• RB Jordan Mason, who was questionable with a hamstring injury, was active for this one but didn’t play a snap.
• Kittle has totaled 18 targets for a 25% share in QB Brock Purdy’s 3 starts. He’s caught 14 of those 18 targets (78%) and scored 4 times.

Seattle Seahawks

RB snap rates:

Ken Walker - 53%
DeeJay Dallas - 46%
Travis Homer - 1% (injured)

Route rates:

DeeJay Dallas - 66%
Ken Walker - 26%
Travis Homer - 0% (injured)

D.K. Metcalf - 96%
Laquon Treadwell - 94%
Marquise Goodwin - 66%
Penny Hart - 26%
Dareke Young - 6%

Noah Fant - 55%
Colby Parkinson - 36%
Will Dissly - 19% (injured)

Takeaways:

• Walker soaked up 26 of 28 RB carries (93%) but lost a bunch of passing-down work to Dallas, who out-targeted Walker 6 to 2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RB snap rates:

Leonard Fournette - 60%
Rachaad White - 36%
Ke’Shawn Vaughn - 2%

Route rates:

Leonard Fournette - 49%
Rachaad White - 29%
Ke’Shawn Vaughn - 2%

Mike Evans - 100%
Chris Godwin - 96%
Russell Gage - 59%
Julio Jones - 35%
Scotty Miller - 6%
Deven Thompkins - 2%

Cade Otton - 84%
Cam Brate -10%
Kyle Rudolph - 6%

Takeaways:

• RB usage over the past 2 weeks:
  • Fournette - 92 snaps, 30 carries, 14 targets
  • White - 58 snaps, 18 carries, 6 targets
• Otton finished with just 2 catches for 12 yards but got strong usage: an 84% route rate and 7 targets (15% share).

Tennessee Titans

RB snap rates:

Derrick Henry - 74%
Hassan Haskins - 25%

Route rates:

Derrick Henry - 45%
Hassan Haskins - 38%

Robert Woods - 97%
Treylon Burks - 90%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 72%
Chris Conley - 10%

Austin Hooper - 62%
Chig Okonkwo - 41%
Geoff Swaim - 41%

Takeaways:

• As expected, the Titan went super run heavy with Malik Willis back under center, registering a -24% Pass Rate Over Expected. Henry is the only viable fantasy play in this offense in Week 17.

Washington Commanders

RB snap rates:

Brian Robinson - 44%
Antonio Gibson - 29%
Jonathan Williams - 27%

Route rates:

Antonio Gibson - 36%
Jonathan Williams - 31%
Brian Robinson - 18%

Jahan Dotson - 97%
Terry McLaurin - 95%
Curtis Samuel - 82%
Cam Sims - 5%
Dax Milne - 3%
Dyami Brown - 3%

Logan Thomas - 85%
John Bates - 5%

Takeaways:

• Williams surprisingly stole some passing-down work from Gibson – particularly in the 4th quarter. Williams tallied 2 carries and 3 targets in the 4th quarter to Gibson’s 0 carries and 1 target and Robinson’s 1 carry and 1 target.
• WR targets over the past 3 games:
  • Dotson - 24 (23.1% share)
  • McLaurin - 23 (22.1%)
  • Samuel - 17 (16.3%)