FFPC Main Event Live Draft Recap
We're freerollin' the FFPC Main Event!
The Draft Sharks crew won a free Main Event entry thanks to a 27th-place finish in last year's FFPC Divisional Round Playoff Challenge -- with a team built on a boat in the Florida Keys.
We hopped in a 6-hour slow draft to give us ample time to argue over our picks.
We'll be live-blogging our picks with full analysis here.
You can see the live draft board here.
And if you're not familiar with the FFPC Main Event, check out all the details here.
1.01 - Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers
No arguing over this pick. We're all on board with McCaffrey as the top player in FFPC Main Event drafts.
We're battling with 4,199 other teams for a $1 million grand prize in this contest. Ceiling takes priority over floor.
Jonathan Taylor undoubtedly brings a higher floor than McCaffrey. But CMC boasts the higher ceiling in this full PPR format.
It was just 3 years ago that he scored the 2nd most PPR points by a RB in NFL history. McCaffrey has played just 8 full games over the last 2 seasons, but here are his weekly PPR finishes in those outings:
McCaffrey checks in as "High Risk" in our 2022 Injury Guide. But RBs Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and D'Andre Swift all have a higher probability of injury this season.
2.12 - Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
3.01 - Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
Hill was an easy pick for us here. Yes, he downgraded going from Kansas City to Miami. But that's baked into this price tag, which is more than a full round later than he went last year.
Hill remains an elite WR, ranking 9th in Pro Football Focus' receiving grades and 11th in yards per route run among 90 qualifiers last year. The Dolphins paid for him to be the focal point of their offense. Look for new HC Mike McDaniel to scheme the ball into his hands -- like McDaniel's 49ers did with Deebo Samuel last season.
The 3.01 came down to Kamara vs. Leonard Fournette vs. James Conner. Fournette and Conner actually sit higher in our baseline PPR rankings. But sort by ceiling projection in the Draft War Room and Kamara pops ahead. There's suspension risk here, but we're playing for that suspension to come in 2023 as the NFL waits for the legal process to play out. Kamara finished 7th among RBs in PPR points per game last year -- his 5th straight top-8 finish.
4.12 - Allen Robinson, WR, Rams
5.01 - Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens
Josh Allen was tempting here. But we've done enough of these FFPC Main Events to know that QBs tend to drop. We'll try to scoop better value later and instead build out our WR corps at this turn.
Robinson is coming off an ugly 2021 season. But we're betting on a big bounce back as he moves from a Bears offense that ranked bottom 9 in points, total yards, passing yards and passing TDs to a Rams offense that ranked top 9 in all 4 of those categories. He should step into a similar role to the one that fed WRs Robert Woods and Odell Beckham a combined 117 targets last year.
The start to Bateman's rookie season was delayed by August groin surgery. And he played 6 of his 12 games without QB Lamar Jackson. But we loved his profile coming out of Minnesota. And there's huge opportunity in 2022 with the departure of WR Marquise Brown, who racked up 146 targets and ranked 11th among WRs in expected PPR points per game last year. Bateman could be in for similar volume this season.
6.12 - Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
7.01 - Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys
We're glad we passed on Josh Allen at the 4/5 turn after finding Jackson available here. QBs Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes were also still on the board, but we broke the tie in favor of Jackson for the stack with Bateman.
Smola (unsurprisingly) pushed for WR Chris Godwin at the 7.01 but was quickly shut down. We expect Pollard to give us weekly RB3/Flex value alongside a healthy Ezekiel Elliott. And if Elliott goes down, Pollard is the type of pick that could win us a million bucks.
8.12 - Kadarius Toney, WR, Giants
9.01 - Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
Lots of attractive WRs still available at this point. We considered Tyler Lockett and Chase Claypool -- plus TE Dawson Knox. But we ultimately opted for the upside of a couple of young WRs with the potential to lead their respective teams in targets.
Toney played 50+% of the Giants' offensive snaps in only 7 games last season. But he garnered 7.4 targets per game on a 21% target share in those outings. And he became just the 8th rookie WR over the past 5 seasons to average 2+ yards per route run. The other 7: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Hunter Renfrow, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin and Chris Godwin.
Burks is on sale after struggling with asthma and/or conditioning this spring. But he remains a high-upside prospect on a Titans team looking to replace A.J. Brown's 8.1 targets per game from a year ago.