What You Need To Know:
- Andrews missed only 1 game last year — Week 17 — en route to a 10-TD breakout.
- He saw just under a 23% target share, an attainable number in 2020 despite an improved supporting cast.
- Lamar Jackson’s elusiveness — combined with Marquise Brown’s speed — should continue providing favorable coverages for the TE.
2019 breakout starts early
Following a hype-filled training camp, Andrews tallied lines of 8-108-1 and 8-112-1 over the first two games. He went on to lead all TEs in TDs (10). He also ranked 2nd at the position in yards per route run (2.89). Andrews ultimately ranked as the TE5 in PPR; TE2 in non-PPR.
Now, the 2nd-year pro wasn’t exactly consistent. Playing for the league’s run-heaviest offense, Andrews ran only 295 pass routes. That mark ranked outside the top-20 TEs.
So it won’t come as a surprise that Andrews posted fewer than 7 PPR points in 5 games. The TDs proved clutch, as he reached 50 yards in just 6 of his final 13 games.
Andrews rested an ankle injury in Week 17, an issue that lingered into the postseason. In total, he landed on the injury report 7 times (postseason included) with ankle, foot, knee and shoulder injuries. Note that Andrews played all 16 games in 2018.
Year 3 outlook
After a promising rookie campaign and a breakout 2019, there’s no doubt left about Andrews’ talent. He’s not Travis Kelce or George Kittle — but he’s likely in the next tier.
While Andrews might still be an ascending player, it’s near impossible to repeat a 15.6% TD rate. And projecting a significant increase on 6.5 targets per game was tough. (Our current projections have him for 7.0.) The offense retained its key pieces and run-heavy scheme, while a healthy Marquise Brown, year 2 of Miles Boykin and the arrival of rookie Devin Duvernay should more evenly distribute targets.
The Ravens traded Hayden Hurst to Atlanta. He leaves behind just 39 targets, most of which figure to go to RBs/WRs. Backup TE Nick Boyle out-snapped Andrews 769-457 a year ago but mustered only 43 targets (a career high).
Maintaining an efficient rapport with Lamar Jackson will be key. The duo combined for a solid 65.4% catch rate last year despite Jackson chucking 18 deep passes (20+ air yards) Andrews’ way. That mark led all TEs by 3. Such passes accounted for 4 of Andrews’ 10 scores.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
Andrews broke out to finish as a top-5 TE last season. Only 24 in September and playing alongside a 23-year-old league MVP, Andrews’ stock remains strong.
But you’ll pay the price in summer drafts. As of early July, his ADP sits squarely in Round 4. With enticing WRs available in that range, we've cooled a bit on Andrews.