Jones ADP at the time of writing has an MFL 10 ADP of 1.10 and going off the board as the Wide Receiver 3. Mike Braude (@BraudeM ) of rotoviz.com suggested that represents great value as there is a very real argument that Julio should be selected number 1 overall his opportunity and upside are that high.
This argument makes sense on so many levels. No one has as big an opportunity as Julio right now. He is a dominant number one receiver, playing for a coach who favors the number 1 receiver, with no number 2 WR, TE or solidified running game to speak of and who has a QB who is not ready to join AARP or whose back is not being held together with duct tape and force of will.
No one doubts the upside but we’re here to talk about his floor.
With all this build up of how the stars have aligned for the monster of all monster years for Julio, it could very well be the perfect storm brewing as Jones’ injury likelihood this year is at 81%.
For those of you who used this site last year will know that we had Jones as one of the most likely players to get injured in 2014. This was as a result of the re-fracture on his foot the year before along with the hamstring and ankle injuries he has suffered in the past (his injury profile can be found here).
He then went on to drop 1,593 yards on the season and in the process try make us look bad.
However – on closer inspection we see that 38% of his production came in a 3 week period of which one of those weeks was in the first fantasy playoff week. If you owned Julio last year he most likely did not lead you to a title. The reason for his drop in production over a 6 week period was an ankle injury that he suffered in week 5 that limited him for 6 weeks in which he averaged 73 yards and scored only 1 TD – not the kind of production you wanted from the first WR you took off the board.
But this is exactly the kind of volatility you expect to see from top tier player who are battling injury. If you took Calvin Johnson last year you experienced the same thing in the two weeks he played hurt. If you drafted Jones in 2014 you had just as explosive but safer options available at similar ADPs such as Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson.
It’s a similar picture this year. You have Dez, Demaryius and Antonio Brown all at similar ADPs but who carry way less risk.
Julio’s upside has never been higher but that injury risk has not gone away.