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July ADP Risers and Fallers

By Jared Smola 4:32pm EDT 8/7/15


The history of players returning from patellar tendon injuries is ugly. That had Giants WR Victor Cruz going in the double-digit rounds of drafts early in the spring. But the reports on his recovery have been glowing -- and he's now creeping toward Round 9. Cruz climbed almost a full round in ADP during July.

Here’s a look at the biggest risers and fallers in MFL10 ADP in July. MFL10s are PPR-scoring, best-ball leagues. ADP will vary in different league types, but not wildly.


Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers

Early-July ADP: 89

Late-July ADP: 82

Big Ben climbed more than a half-round in ADP and also went from the 7 th QB off the board to the 6th. (He jumped Cam Newton.) Reports on the Steelers’ passing game have been glowing, especially WR Martavis Bryant. Roethlisberger carries clear top-5 upside this season and is still a fine value at his current mid-7th-round ADP.

Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys

Early-July ADP: 50

Late-July ADP: 47

Randle climbed from the late 6 th round to the early 5th in June. He spiked into Round 4 by the end of July. Randle’s grip on the starting job has tightened, but he remains a risk/reward pick at his current price.

Doug Martin, RB, Bucs

Early-July ADP: 81

Late-July ADP: 75

Martin has shed weight and been deemed “the lead guy” by HC Lovie Smith. That’s bumped his ADP up by a half-round. There are plenty of folks unwilling to bank on Martin after 2 duds, though, so his price has remained reasonable.

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets

Early-July ADP: 99

Late-July ADP: 84

Ivory was a screamin’ value in the 9 th round back in early July. He’s still a nice target in the 7th or 8th. RB Stevan Ridley remains on the PUP list, and RB Zac Stacy doesn’t seem like much of a threat to Ivory’s lead role.

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers

Early-July ADP: 112

Late-July ADP: 102

Woodhead was available in 12 th round in a couple of months ago. He moved into 10th in June. Now he’s going in the middle of the 9th. Woodhead, unfortunately, is no longer a big bargain.

Roy Helu, RB, Raiders

Early-July ADP: 133

Late-July ADP: 125

Helu’s price has climbed, despite a quiet July. Signs point to Latavius Murray being locked in to the lead job, which would leave Helu as a change-of-pace pass-catcher. He’s still a decent value in the 11th round of PPR drafts.

Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys

Early-July ADP: 218

Late-July ADP: 193

Dunbar wasn’t even drafted in about half of the MFL10 leagues in early July. By the end of the month, he was coming off the board in Round 16 or 17 on average. There’s talk of Dunbar playing a significant pass-catching role, and there’s an opportunity for more carries with DeMarco Murray out of the picture. Dunbar is a fine late-round flier.

Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers

Early-July ADP: 62

Late-July ADP: 54

Few players were buzzier than Bryant in June. But his July has started with an elbow infection and a #3 spot on the depth chart. We’ll see what that does to his ADP. He needs to drop back into the 6th round for us to be very interested in this boom-or-bust receiver.

Victor Cruz, WR, Giants

Early-July ADP: 121

Late-July ADP: 113

Reports on Cruz’s return from last year’s torn patellar tendon continue to be positive. We still need to see him in live game action before recommending him in fantasy drafts, especially at his rising ADP.

Stevie Johnson, WR, Chargers

Early-July ADP: 153

Late-July ADP: 141

Johnson is rapidly developing chemistry with QB Philip Rivers. Even at his late-July 12th-round ADP, he could return big value.

Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers

Early-July ADP: 230

Late-July ADP: 219

Wheaton is still listed as Pittsburgh’s #2 WR, and QB Ben Roethlisberger believes he’ll be the team’s breakout player this year. We’re still banking on Martavis Bryant being the Steelers’ 2nd-most productive WR, but Wheaton could be a fantasy asset in what should be 1 of the top passing attacks in the league.

Leonard Hankerson, WR, Falcons

Early-July ADP: 241

Late-July ADP: 236

Hankerson was picked in exactly 1 of 118 drafts in the 1 st week of July. That climbed to 37 of 186 drafts over the final 7 days of the month. So HankTime is still basically free. He’s been impressing in camp and is a solid late-round flier consider Roddy White and Julio Jones’ injury issues.

Delanie Walker, TE, Titans

Early-July ADP: 126

Late-July ADP: 121

Walker hasn’t done anything to climb in ADP. People are just starting to realize that he’s a screaming value after finishing 8th among TEs in PPR points last year. Walker is still only the 10th TE off the board in average drafts.


LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills

Early-July ADP: 16

Late-July ADP: 18

Even a 2-spot fall is pretty significant for a mid-2nd-round pick. Buffalo’s crappy QB situation is likely starting to scare people away from Shady. He’ll have volume on his side, though, and makes sense in the back half of Round 2.

Gio Bernard, RB, Bengals

Early-July ADP: 48

Late-July ADP: 52

Jeremy Hill is the man in Cincinnati’s backfield — no doubt about that. But Bernard could still rack up 50+ catches and present value at his 5th-round price tag.

Charles Sims, RB, Bucs

Early-July ADP: 102

Late-July ADP: 113

As Doug Martin moves up draft board, Sims naturally falls. If the Muscle Hamster is truly in for a bounce-back year, Sims won’t be more than a change-of-pace option.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons

Early-July ADP: 75

Late-July ADP: 78

We learned in July that White had his troublesome knee drained earlier in the offseason. His reps have been limited in training camp, and at least 1 Falcons insider believes Leonard Hankerson could make a push for White’s starting job.

Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins

Early-July ADP: 115

Late-July ADP: 124

Stills has been limited by a calf injury early in camp, but there’s been nothing to suggest it’ll be an issue come Week 1. We’re still waiting to see what his role will be in a crowded pass-catching corps.

Percy Harvin, WR, Bills

Early-July ADP: 142

Late-July ADP: 148

Harvin has reportedly struggled with route-running and been working as Buffalo’s #3 WR. Insider Vic Carucci doesn’t believe he’ll have a “major role” in the offense. Harvin’s big-play ability at least gives him some appeal at this price in best-ball leagues.

Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles

Early-July ADP: 82

Late-July ADP: 90

Surprising to see Ertz on the “fallers” list considering he remains 1 of the more popular breakout picks this year. His current mid-8th-round ADP might be the cheapest he comes in drafts this year. A big play or 2 in preseason action will spike his price tag.

Josh Hill, TE, Saints

Early-July ADP: 129

Late-July ADP: 137

A popular breakout pick for much of the spring, Hill’s buzz has quieted recently. Insider Mike Triplett doesn’t see a “major breakthrough” this year. Hill hasn’t helped his cause by missing time early in camp with an undisclosed injury.

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

Early-July ADP: 134

Late-July ADP: 144

Gates’ 4-game suspension was announced on July 2. In the month preceding that, he was going 111th overall. He’s dropped almost 3 full rounds since then. There’s value here if you can afford to stash Gates for those first 4 weeks.

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