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July ADP Risers and Fallers

By Jared Smola 8:07am EDT 7/31/17

We’re still a couple of weeks away from the heart of fantasy football drafting season. But there are enough drafts firing off now that we can start to get a good feel for where ADPs are at — and where they’re going.

Over 1,200 public drafts took place on in July. Using our powerful ADP Explorer tool, we can take a deep dive into ADP trends.

Here’s a look at the biggest risers and fallers over the past month:

ADP Risers

Drew Brees, QB, Saints

Early-July ADP: 57

Late-July ADP: 54

Brees has been the biggest riser among the upper-echelon QBs so far. We’ll likely see Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady climb, too, as more “casual” drafters enter the fray.

Ty Montgomery, RB, Packers

Early-July ADP: 47

Late-July ADP: 41

Buzz is building for Montgomery. He’s still going 16th among RBs, though — 5 spots lower than he sits in our PPR Rankings.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings

Early-July ADP: 55

Late-July ADP: 49

The rookie has been soaking up 1st-team reps early in training camp while Latavius Murray (ankle) sits on the PUP list. Cook is talented enough to take this starting job and run with it. He’s being drafted 18th among RBs now.

Mike Gillislee, RB, Patriots

Early-July ADP: 67

Late-July ADP: 60

Fantasy drafters are confident Gillislee is stepping into the LeGarrette Blount role this season. There’s big TD upside if he does, but he’s getting expensive when you factor in the usual unpredictability of New England’s backfield.

Danny Woodhead, RB, Ravens

Early-July ADP: 74

Late-July ADP: 68

Terrance West was the big winner of Kenneth Dixon’s season-ending knee injury. But it also tightens Woodhead’s grip on pass-catching duties. We bumped him up to 21st in our PPR Rankings — 5 spots above where he’s being drafted now.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers

Early-July ADP: 140

Late-July ADP: 120

The Panthers’ official website expects Stewart to get the "bulk of the carries this season,” despite the addition of 1st-round rookie Christian McCaffrey. We’re not buying that at this point, but we are buying Stewart maintaining a significant role — especially near the goal line. He remains a fine value at his late-10th-round ADP.

Terrance West, RB, Ravens

Early-July ADP: 140

Late-July ADP: 122

West’s ADP has climbed to 112th overall since we learned that Kenneth Dixon was out for the season on July 25. As the Ravens’ backfield stands now, a healthy West is a strong bet for 200+ carries. We’ll see if Baltimore adds to its RB group.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Bucs

Early-July ADP: 184

Late-July ADP: 164

Rodgers is the favorite to serve as Tampa’s lead back while Doug Martin serves his 3-game suspension to open the season. ‘Quizz topped 15 touches in 5 games last year and finished 4 of them as a top-18 PPR RB. He remains a solid pick even at his elevated 14th-round ADP.

Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys

Early-July ADP: 225

Late-July ADP: 171

McFadden has climbed 4.5 rounds with reports of an impending suspension for Ezekiel Elliott. Volume and supporting cast would make McFadden an easy fantasy starter whenever Zeke is out this year.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers

Early-July ADP: 3.7

Late-July ADP: 3.2

Brown has passed Ezekiel Elliott as the #3 pick in average drafts. He’s the safest 1st-rounder, especially in PPR leagues. Brown has ranked among the top 3 PPR WRs in 4 straight seasons.

Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers

Early-July ADP: 35

Late-July ADP: 33

Allen is building momentum. He’s impressed teammates and media members with his recovery from last September’s torn ACL. And his target projection has gotten a boost with rookie WR Mike Williams’ back troubles.

Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers

Early-July ADP: 109

Late-July ADP: 90

Another guy who has benefitted from Mike Williams’ injury. Tyrell is locked in as Los Angeles’ #2 WR — at least to open the season — after finishing 18th at his position in PPR points last year.

Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons

Early-July ADP: 140

Late-July ADP: 132

Looks like folks are finally waking up to Hooper. There’s TE1 upside here as the clear starter in a high-powered offense. He remains a nice value at his current 11th- or 12th-round ADP.

ADP Fallers

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

Early-July ADP: 54

Late-July ADP: 60

Luck’s price is FINALLY starting to reflect the risk involved with a QB who hasn’t thrown in about 7 months. There’s still no timetable for his return to the field.

Jameis Winston, QB, Bucs

Early-July ADP: 86

Late-July ADP: 96

Winston’s ADP has dropped nearly a full round, but he’s still the 7th QB off the board. That’s a fair price for the QB6 in our rankings, but guys like Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton look like better pure values.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys

Early-July ADP: 3.3

Late-July ADP: 4.5

Elliott is now closer in overall ADP to Odell Beckham (5.1) and Julio Jones (5.5) than Antonio Brown (3.2). Drafters are clearly spooked by a looming suspension. Unless that ban goes longer than a couple of games, though, he remains a top 4 value.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers

Early-July ADP: 37

Late-July ADP: 42

The rookie shine is wearing off McCaffrey a bit. He’s fallen from 15th among RBs in ADP to 17th — 4 spots lower than he sits in our PPR Rankings.

Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers

Early-July ADP: 46

Late-July ADP: 53

It’s been a rough offseason for Hyde. He reportedly struggled in spring workouts, his GM questioned his fit in the offense, and he watched his team add rookie Joe Williams. Hyde has impressed early in training camp, though, and remains the best bet in San Francisco’s backfield. He’s looking like an intriguing value at this depressed price.

D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texans

Early-July ADP: 171

Late-July ADP: 190

The rookie was arrested earlier this month for possession of marijuana and an unlawful weapon. That was after he showed up to spring workouts overweight. Foreman doesn’t look like a threat to Lamar Miller right now.

Charles Sims, RB, Bucs

Early-July ADP: 191

Late-July ADP: 210

Sims was already 1 of our favorite late-round PPR sleepers. The sinking ADP only helps his case.

DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins

Early-July ADP: 72

Late-July ADP: 79

This looks like a pullback on a stock that ran up quickly. Parker’s current WR38 ADP is palatable. He’s continued to draw buzz early in training camp.

Corey Davis, WR, Titans

Early-July ADP: 87

Late-July ADP: 98

Davis’ ADP has been trending downward since Tennessee inked Eric Decker in mid-June. The 1st-round rookie was overvalued early this offseason but is now worth a look at his WR44 ADP.

Corey Coleman, WR, Browns

Early-July ADP: 102

Late-July ADP: 109

Coleman missed a chunk of the spring with a bum hamstring — a problem that’s plagued him in the past. He was cleared for the start of training camp, though, and remains locked in as 1 of Cleveland’s top 2 targets.

Mike Williams, WR, Chargers

Early-July ADP: 151

Late-July ADP: 181

Williams’ ADP will probably drop further from here after this past weekend’s news that he won’t practice at all in training camp. Chances are looking better than not that he lands on the reserve PUP list, knocking him out for the first 6 games of the regular season.

Devin Funchess, WR, Panthers

Early-July ADP: 199

Late-July ADP: 209

Funchess is an intriguing late-round flier. He’s been inefficient through his first 2 NFL seasons. But he’s just 23, goes 6’4, 225 pounds and has scored 9 times on 54 career catches. Funchess is slated for #2 WR duties in Carolina this year after the offseason departure of Ted Ginn.

Robby Anderson, WR, Jets

Early-July ADP: 204

Late-July ADP: 220

Anderson watched the Jets add a pair of WRs in the draft and was then arrested in May. He’ll need to battle for a starting job this summer, despite last year’s 42-587-2 line.

Zach Miller, TE, Bears

Early-July ADP: 228

Late-July ADP: 235

Miller is reportedly in danger of getting cut after the team added free-agent Dion Sims and rookie Adam Shaheen. Quite a tumble for a guy who ranked 10th among TEs in PPR points per game last year.

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