Draft Strategy

MFL10 Draft Strategy Guide: QB Strategy

By Jason Phelps and Jared Smola 9:03am EDT 6/22/15

Note: If you’re unfamiliar with MFL10 leagues, check out the Intro article before digging in to QB strategy.

The 2 biggest questions to consider when formulating a QB strategy -- as with any other position -- are how many you’ll roster and when you’ll draft them. Let’s dig into the data and see what the numbers recommend.

How Many QBs Should I Draft?

The chart below shows us how many points we can expect a team to score based only on the number of QBs rostered.

Two is the sweet spot here. Squads with 2 QBs are expected to score 2,342 fantasy points over the course of the 16-week MFL10 season. That’s 18 more than teams with 3 QBs -- plus drafting only 2 gives you the advantage of having an extra roster spot to use at another position.

Of course, the quality of QBs you draft should impact whether you take a 3rd. If you use an early-round pick on Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers, you’ll only need 1 more QB. Even if you take a couple of quality mid-round guys – say, Eli Manning and Colin Kaepernick – you don’t need a 3rd.

As the 2 charts below show, the difference between 2 QBs and 3 is about 20 points regardless of whether you take a QB within the first 5 rounds. 

Now, if you play the waiting game, get left out of a run and end up with a less reliable QB1 and QB2, it might make sense to add a 3rd.

Another thing you’ll notice about the 2 charts above is that your team is expected to score 13 or 14 more points if you do not take a QB within the first 5 rounds. The odds of finishing among the top 2 don’t significantly differ depending on whether or not you take a QB among the first 5 picks. But your odds of winning your league drop from 8.6% to 7.9% when you grab a QB within the first 5 rounds.

So …

When Should I Draft My QBs?

You should go into your MFL10 draft planning to take 2 QBs. Pay attention to ADP and pounce if a QB drops well below his expected draft spot.

But based on results over the past 2 seasons, you’ll be expected to score above average by landing your 1st QB in Rounds 6 through 12 as the 7th to 18th QB off the board. Your optimal range for a 1st QB is in Rounds 8 through 11 as the 11th to 16th QB off the board.

You’ll want to draft your QB2 in Rounds 9 through 13 as the 10th to 21st QB off the board to be expected to score above average. The optimal territory to select your 2nd QB is in Rounds 10 through 12 as the 13th to 17th QB off the board.

Depending on your draft slot, adhering to these strategies may be tricky. If you’re drafting at the beginning or the end of a round, you need to be very aware of how many QBs are off the board and what the ADPs of the remaining QBs are. It’s easy to get boxed out of the ideal QBs after a QB run.

Each draft is unique, especially when it comes to QBs. In some drafts, you’ll see QBs fly off the board early. Other times you’ll see them fall well past ADP. So, the more important stat to track during your draft is the number of QBs off the board, rather than the draft position.

Who Should I Target?

Based on this data, ADP and our 2015 preseason projections, your top QB1 targets should be Tony Romo, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady and Eli Manning. Then look to secure Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford or Philip Rivers as your QB2.

If you end up needing a 3rd QB, Robert Griffin, Carson Palmer and Alex Smith are the best values.

Next up: MFL10 RB Strategy

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