Risers & Fallers

Mid-August ADP Risers and Fallers

By Jared Smola 8:08am EDT 8/18/16

With more drafts going off and more news flying in, we’re seeing bigger swings in ADP now than we were back in July. Keeping up with these changes is critical to leaving your draft with the best team possible.

As usual, we’re looking at MFL10 data. ADP varies by league size and type, but not wildly. These numbers are a good guide as we head into peak drafting season.

(NOTE: Check out how these ADP changes might impact your draft by practicing on the brand new, FREE Mock Draft Trainer.)


Risers

Robert Griffin, QB, Browns

Early-August ADP: 218

Mid-August ADP: 197

RG3 has climbed almost 2 rounds since being named Cleveland’s starter. There’s still very little risk in taking him in the 17th round — and plenty of upside.


Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders

Early-August ADP: 52

Mid-August ADP: 48

Word out of Oakland is Murray is enjoying a strong training camp. He’ll enter the season as the clear lead back but will have DeAndre Washington lurking.


Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles

Early-August ADP: 147

Mid-August ADP: 140

Folks are starting to wake up to the fact that Sproles remains the Eagles’ clear lead passing-down back. He’s finished as a top 29 PPR RB in 7 straight seasons but is still only being drafted as the RB47.


Terrance West, RB, Ravens

Early-August ADP: 241

Mid-August ADP: 191

West was selected in exactly 2 of 179 drafts between July 30 and August 2. Now he’s going in Round 16. That’s still a fine spot for a guy who appears to have a legitimate chance to win Baltimore’s starting RB job.


Christine Michael, RB, Seahawks

Early-August ADP: 240

Mid-August ADP: 202

Michael wasn’t even taken in 170 of 179 drafts between July 30 and August 2. He’s up to the 17th round now, and that’ll likely continue to climb with all the hype coming out of Seattle. Michael is a fine flier as long as you’re not drafting him as a starter.


Keith Marshall, RB, Redskins

Early-August ADP: 232

Mid-August ADP: 216

The “2-headed monster” comment from GM Scot McCoughlan caused Marshall’s ADP to spike. McCoughlan pumped up Matt Jones just a day later, though, and insider Mike Jones recently predicted that Marshall won’t even make Washington’s 53-man roster.


Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars

Early-August ADP: 12

Mid-August ADP: 9

A 3-spot move this early in the draft is big. Robinson is now neck and neck with Dez Bryant as the 6th WR off the board. He’s hopped over RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Lamar Miller in overall ADP.


Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings

Early-August ADP: 104

Mid-August ADP: 87

Diggs has starred at Vikings training camp and seems set to open the season as the #1 WR. The upside is still limited by Minnesota’s run-heavy offense, but Diggs is only the 43rd WR off the board.


Michael Thomas, WR, Saints

Early-August ADP: 116

Mid-August ADP: 99

Thomas backed up a strong start to training camp with a team-leading 4 catches for 67 yards in the preseason opener. He’s now the 47th WR off the board — 4 spots higher than he sits in our PPR rankings. Thomas’ ceiling extends well beyond that, though.


Sammie Coates, WR, Steelers

Early-August ADP: 120

Mid-August ADP: 104

The consistent buzz on Coates has raised his price by more than a full round over the past 2 weeks. He’s an OK shot to take in the mid-9th but might be overpriced if he climbs much higher. Coates fumbled twice in the preseason opener.


Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals

Early-August ADP: 176

Mid-August ADP: 144

The rookie was climbing even before we found out that Brandon LaFell is dealing with a torn ligament in his hand. Boyd makes sense at his current price but is likely to continue his ascent.


Bruce Ellington, WR, 49ers

Early-August ADP: 174

Mid-August ADP: 149

Ellington has now appeared as a “riser” in all 3 of this year’s ADP reports. He was going in the 20th round back in early July. Now you’ll need to spend a 13th round pick on a guy we like plenty.


Breshad Perriman, WR, Ravens

Early-August ADP: 199

Mid-August ADP: 174

Perriman’s rise is likely due to insider Peter King’s early-August report that said the Ravens expected their 2015 1st-rounder back by Week 1. More recently, though, HC John Harbaugh admitted that there remains no timetable for Perriman’s return. We’ll see if that sends his ADP south again.


Davante Adams, WR, Packers

Early-August ADP: 215

Mid-August ADP: 190

Adams is in the driver’s seat for Green Bay’s #3 WR job — even if it’s by default. We’re not convinced that he’ll bounce-back from last year’s disaster, but there’s little risk in spending a 16th-round pick on a piece of the Packers’ high-scoring offense.


Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans

Early-August ADP: 233

Mid-August ADP: 216

The rookie figures to shoot higher up draft boards after the trade of Dorial Green-Beckham. Sharpe appears locked in as 1 of Tennessee’s top 3 WRs.


Virgil Green, TE, Broncos

Early-August ADP: 239

Mid-August ADP: 226

Green was going undrafted in the majority of leagues early this month. Now that he appears to be in the lead for Denver’s starting job, he’s at least finding his way onto rosters. He still qualifies as an excellent target at this 19th-round ADP.


Fallers

Matt Forte, RB, Jets

Early-August ADP: 43

Mid-August ADP: 49

The 30-year-old missed the first 2 weeks of training camp and is just now easing back into action. He expects to be ready for the start of the season but needs to get healthy to fend off Bilal Powell. Forte is a risk/reward pick at his current early-5th-round ADP.


Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots

Early-August ADP: 44

Mid-August ADP: 50

Like Forte, Lewis has dropped half a round over the past 2 weeks. That’s still not enough for us to bite. There’s reportedly a chance Lewis opens the season on PUP, which would cost him the first 6 games.


Theo Riddick, RB, Lions

Early-August ADP: 95

Mid-August ADP: 106

Not sure why Riddick has dropped, besides maybe the fact that he was being overdrafted to begin with. He’s now the 38th RB off the board — 2 spots lower than he sits in our PPR rankings.


C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks

Early-August ADP: 119

Mid-August ADP: 147

Prosise missed much of the spring, the first 2 weeks of training camp and Seattle’s first 2 preseason games. He has a lot of catching up to do and probably won’t be an early-season fantasy option.


Wendell Smallwood, RB, Eagles

Early-August ADP: 171

Mid-August ADP: 193

Remember when folks thought this guy was a threat to Ryan Mathews’ starting job? Ah, good times. Smallwood is reportedly just battling for the #3 spot on the depth chart.


Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings

Early-August ADP: 98

Mid-August ADP: 109

The rookie has had an uneven training camp and might not win a Week 1 starting job. We’re not very interested in Treadwell even at his current 10th-round ADP.


Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Eagles

Early-August ADP: 115

Mid-August ADP: 134

DGB had been steadily dropping down draft boards even before his trade to Philly. We’ll see how the rest of the community views his prospects as an Eagle, but he looks like just a late-round flier to us.


Kendall Wright, WR, Titans

Early-August ADP: 185

Mid-August ADP: 214

Wright is quickly entering value territory now. He remains locked in as 1 of Tennessee’s top 3 WRs and has a pair of top 35 PPR seasons under his belt. He’s now the 76th WR off the board.


Victor Cruz, WR, Giants

Early-August ADP: 216

Mid-August ADP: 229

Cruz was picked in only about a quarter of drafts from August 12 to 15. He made it through just about a week of camp before injuring his groin.


Jeff Janis, WR, Packers

Early-August ADP: 216

Mid-August ADP: 240

Janis had a rough start to camp and will now miss 4-6 weeks with a fractured hand. The cult hero won’t be an early-season fantasy factor.


Eric Ebron, TE, Lions

Early-August ADP: 113

Mid-August ADP: 124

His ankle injury has given us almost a 1-round discount. Ebron is tentatively expected to be ready for Week 1. And even if he’s not, it’s easy to find a replacement for a game or 2.


Ladarius Green, TE, Steelers

Early-August ADP: 100

Mid-August ADP: 133

Green has plummeted nearly 3 rounds since a report surfaced that he’s dealing with presumably concussion-related headaches. There’s no timetable for his return. He’s a big risk even at his current early-12th-round ADP.


Vance McDonald, TE, 49ers

Early-August ADP: 172

Mid-August ADP: 187

We’re honestly not sure why McDonald has dropped over a round. Perhaps this prediction that he’d be San Francisco’s #3 TE? But McDonald ran with the starters in the preseason opener and scored a 43-yard TD. He remains an intriguing late-rounder.

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