We’re still 7 weeks away from the start of the 2016 season. But it's never too early to keep an eye on ADP trends.
Projections and rankings are only half of the equation in fantasy football drafts. Knowing when guys are likely to get picked is just as important.
That’s why we built the MFL10 ADP Explorer to dissect draft trends. MFL10s are PPR-scoring, best-ball leagues. ADP will vary in different league types, but not wildly. And the MFL10 data is the most reliable we have because it’s based on real drafts with money on the line.
Here’s a look at the 21 biggest ADP risers and fallers through the first 3 weeks of July:
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills
Early-July ADP: 146
Mid-July ADP: 140
Taylor is coming off a strong spring after ranking 7th among QBs in fantasy points per game last year. His upside hinges on WR Sammy Watkins’ health, but Taylor is a fine value at his current QB16 ADP.
Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens
Early-July ADP: 107
Mid-July ADP: 97
ESPN’s Jamison Hensley recently deemed Forsett the favorite for the starting job heading into camp. The 30-year-old will need to hold off youngsters Kenneth Dixon and Buck Allen. But if he does, there’s lots of fantasy upside in OC Marc Trestman’s RB-friendly offense.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns
Early-July ADP: 107
Mid-July ADP: 117
Crowell’s social media mishap had him in hot water for a few days, but it doesn’t look like it’ll impact his 2016. He remains the favorite to lead the Browns in rushing and is a nice value at RB41.
Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Titans
Early-July ADP: 96
Mid-July ADP: 103
DGB missed some time this spring with hamstring trouble and heads to camp as a reserve. There’s still time for him to win a starting job, though. He remains the most physically gifted WR in Tennessee. Coming at a half-round discount from earlier this month, he’s a worthwhile gamble.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals
Early-July ADP: 85
Mid-July ADP: 91
Eifert’s ADP has been sinking since he had ankle surgery in May. It took another dive recently when director of player personnel Duke Tobin hinted that Eifert isn’t expected to be ready for Week 1. He’s working his way toward a range where the potential reward outweighs the risk.