NFC Team-by-Team WR Breakdowns


To see our baseline, ceiling and floor projections for every WR discussed below, check out the Preseason Rankings.

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Minnesota Vikings

Top Fantasy Target: Justin Jefferson
Other Draftables: Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn

Will the move from HC Mike Zimmer to HC Kevin O’Connell mean more passing in Minnesota? Maybe a little. But the Vikings weren’t some run-heavy offense last year. They ranked 15th in pass rate and 11th in pass attempts. So don’t expect a big boost in volume

Jefferson doesn’t need it, of course. He finished 3rd among WRs in target share (27.6%) and 4th in targets (167) last season. That fueled a WR4 finish in half-PPR points after a WR7 finish as a rookie. His 3,016 receiving yards are the most in NFL history through a player’s first 2 seasons – 261 more than anyone else.

It’s worth noting that Jefferson averaged 11.5 targets per game with Thielen out or limited over the final 6 weeks of the season vs. 8.9 targets with a healthy Thielen over the first 11 games. But even that latter number would have left Jefferson 9th among WRs for the season. He’s 1 of the safest picks in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.

Thielen essentially missed the final 6 games of last season with a high-ankle sprain that required surgery in late December. He’s back to 100% now. Through the 12 weeks before that injury, Thielen averaged 8.2 targets per game and was sitting 8th among WRs in half-PPR points per game. He registered a 15.9% TD rate over that stretch that’ll be tough to repeat in 2022. But Thielen has always been a high-TD-rate guy, scoring on 13.4% of his grabs over his first 3 seasons with QB Kirk Cousins.

Thielen turns 32 in August and posted 6-year lows in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route run last season. There’s decline risk here, but that’s baked into his WR29 ADP.

One change we figure to see in O’Connell’s offense is more 3-WR sets. Minnesota ranked 28th in ‘11’ personnel rate last year at 47%. O’Connell’s Rams offense led the league at 86%.

That’s good news for Osborn, who’s coming off a 50-655-7 line and WR39 half-PPR finish. A big chunk of Osborn’s production came with Thielen out over those final 6 weeks, though. He ranked 25th in half-PPR points per game during that stretch vs. just 78th with a healthy Thielen. The additional playing time will help Osborn, but he’ll still likely need a Thielen or Jefferson injury to be a reliable weekly fantasy play.


San Francisco 49ers

Top Fantasy Target: Deebo Samuel
Other Draftables: Brandon Aiyuk

Samuel is coming off 1 of the most insane fantasy seasons in recent memory. He was a traditional WR for his first 8 games, averaging 10.1 targets and less than 1 carry per. Over his final 8 games, Samuel was a hybrid offensive weapon, averaging 5.0 targets and 6.6 carries per game. The end result was a WR3 finish in PPR points; WR2 in non-PPR.

Samuel’s efficiency was off the charts. His 18.2 yards per catch and 11.6 yards per target were both career highs and led all 90 WRs with 50+ targets. He also scored 8 times on 59 carries – an absurd 13.6% rushing TD rate. All those marks figure to regress in 2022.

And then there’s the QB change from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance. We’re pumped about Lance’s fantasy upside, but it’s likely that he’s a worse passer at this point of his career than Garoppolo, who completed 68% of his passes and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt over the past 5 seasons in San Francisco. The ‘Niners also figure to pass less often with Lance under center. It’s a concern for Samuel’s 2022 fantasy outlook.

As for his role, we’d rather see him as a traditional WR. He ranked 8th among WRs in expected fantasy points per game in that role over the first 8 games. As a hybrid player over the final 8, Samuel ranked 24th in expected points per game.

Aiyuk is coming off a rocky 2021. He was in HC Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse early in the season and tallied just 9 catches over the first 6 games. He was back in a full-time role over the final 11, though, and compiled 47 catches for 730 yards and 4 TDs. Only 15 WRs scored more PPR points over that span.

Aiyuk averaged 6.2 targets per game on a 21.1% target share across those final 11 games. But he might struggle to hit those marks in 2022 if San Francisco goes more run-heavy with Lance and if Samuel is back in a traditional WR role.

Jauan Jennings flashed a few times late last season as the 49ers’ #3 WR. But he’d need a Samuel or Aiyuk injury to sniff reliable fantasy value.