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Draft Strategy

Perfect Draft: 10-Team Non-PPR (updated Sept. 3)

By Matt Schauf 7:09am EDT 9/3/21


You should go into every fantasy draft with a general plan of attack.

Of course, you’ll need to be able to adjust throughout the draft and pounce on value wherever it presents itself. That’s where the brand new Draft War Room with customized, dynamic rankings comes into play.

But building a round-by-round strategy beforehand certainly helps. That’s exactly what we’re doing with the Perfect Draft series — using the Draft War Room and ADP to get an idea of where the value will be in each round.

This is the 10-Team non-PPR Perfect Draft. Each strategy guide assumes 16-round drafts and starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DEF. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different.

Note: Updates from Sept. 3 in bold.


Pick 1, 2, 3 or 4

Round 1

RB: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott

Even without a point per reception, McCaffrey still leads his position by a healthy margin. That’s because those catches bring with them yardage and TDs. So they’re still high-value touches.

Cook sits well behind him in DMVP but also clearly ahead of Henry, who then has less space between him and Elliott.

So there’s a hierarchy among these top 4 RBs. But the War Room will have you starting your draft with an RB from any of the top 4 slots. So we’ll group them for this exercise.


Rounds 2-3

RB: Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chris Carson, James Robinson
WR: A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Justin Jefferson, DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf

We’re almost definitely leaving this range with 1 more RB and a WR.


Rounds 4-5

QB: Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson
RB: Damien Harris, Gus Edwards
WR: Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Adam Thielen, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin
TE: Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson

The RB situation at this turn has changed quite a bit over the past month. Either Harris or Edwards is fine as a 3rd, but you're probably maximizing value at this turn by taking a WR and 1 of these 2 QBs if both get here. The board might prefer that you grab a 3rd RB, though. And that's a fine move here as well if you'd rather wait on a QB.


Rounds 6-7

QB: Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert
RB: Gus Edwards, Trey Sermon, Chase Edmonds
WR: Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy
TE: T.J. Hockenson

You can expect WRs to linger on the board longer in non-PPR than PPR. Perhaps that lets you grab a 3rd RB earlier. Or maybe you can get your QB a round earlier than you might normally.

Even if it doesn’t change your strategy, it’s worth keeping in mind. You can mess around with our Mock Draft Trainer to try different approaches.

The lack of PPR scoring also levels out this mid-range at TE. Hockenson, for example, remains in consideration across formats. But going without reception scoring lowers his ceiling in an offense we don’t expect to do a ton of scoring.

That said, if you arrive at this turn with a pair of RBs, a pair of WRs and a QB, and Hockenson is still available, expect to see him leading your recommended picks. He'll also be high if you get here without a QB, but he'll probably trail Russell Wilson. Hockenson is a fine selection here. His high target floor still means you can just leave him in your lineup every week and save a roster spot by not drafting a 2nd TE. He beats the next TE in our non-PPR rankings by more than a point per game.

If Hockenson doesn’t last, no big deal. There’s still upside in the next few TEs.

Leaving this turn with a QB, a TE and 5 combined RB/WR looks good, though you could also wait on QB or TE beyond this level.


Rounds 8-9

QB: Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts
RB: Leonard Fournette, James Conner, Zack Moss, Jamaal Williams, Sony Michel
WR: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Kenny Golladay, Robby Anderson, Mike Williams, D.J. Chark, Antonio Brown, Laviska Shenault, DeVonta Smith
TE: Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant

If you get here with just 2 WRs rostered, you might want to go ahead and double up at the position. Injuries have pushed Golladay and Chark down in ADP, making them options in this range.

TE will also jump prominently into view here if you don't yet have 1. If you've waited this long, though, ADP says you can hold out toe the 10-11 turn and still likely find Higbee.

You might notice the board automatically switching to "Upside Mode" in Round 9. As it will say in the explanation at the top of the board: "That weighs a player's ceiling and likelihood of him hitting that ceiling (reflected into DMVP points). This tool helps you to hit those later round gems. You can toggle this “on" and “off" manually at the top of the rankings tab."

Whether you have Upside Mode on or off will affect the order in which players appear at each position the rest of the way. For our purposes here, I'll stick mainly to how we have them in our base projections. But this is absolutely the time in your draft to chase upside.


Rounds 10-11

QB: Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow
RB: Jamaal Williams, Sony Michel
WR: Mike Williams, Laviska Shenault, Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks, Elijah Moore, Michael Pittman, Corey Davis
TE: Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant

Now would be a good time to double up at WR, especially if you have no more than 3 to this point. There’s room here to rank them by straight projections or ceiling, use ADP to help show you who might make it back to you, or even just pick your favorites.

Of course, if you arrive with just 3 RBs or in need of a TE, you could grab 1 of either to go with a WR.


Rounds 12-13

QB: Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence
RB: Tevin Coleman, Nyheim Hines, Rhamondre Stevenson
WR: Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Elijah Moore, Bryan Edwards
TE: Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki
DST: Colts, Ravens, Broncos

What do you need at this turn? If you waited on a QB, you can insure him with a backup here. If you’re shorter at RB or WR, then you can find options at either spot. You might still find decent TEs at this turn. And defenses should start going off the board in this range. (If they go earlier, reap the benefits of your league mates targeting that position too early.)


Rounds 14-16

Time to fill out your roster with a high-upside backup or 2, as well as securing your kicker and defense. Denver looks like an attractive value option, with the Giants, Jaguars and Jets waiting in the 1st 3 weeks.


Pick 5, 6 or 7

Round 1

RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones
TE: Travis Kelce

If you’re picking 7th and the round follows ADP, it might look like Kelce is about to be your top recommendation. But Jones replaced him in the top spot when it got to my turn as the 7th pick. So the War Room will want you to land a RB in this range.

You can opt for the safety of the dominant top TE if you’d rather. Just know that you’ll be chasing a bit at RB over the next few rounds.


Round 2

RB: Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Austin Ekeler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Your War Room will strongly prefer a RB at this spot, even if you took 1 in the 1st round.

The WRs climb the recommended picks board if you need to start 3, but Mixon still leads the way.

Beginning your team with 2 workhorses either way will set your non-PPR team up well.


Round 3

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Chris Carson, James Robinson, David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift
WR: A.J. Brown, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen
TE: Darren Waller, George Kittle

Whether it's Waller or Kittle (if Waller's gone), my board wants me to take a TE here. That differs from last time, when A.J. Brown led the way following a 2-RB start. What's changed? Well, a smattering of TE injuries from low-TE1 through TE2 territory have made that position even worse. That only boosts the already elite tiers up top. Playing without reception scoring here also makes the WR rankings a little flatter, with fewer sharp drop-offs between tiers.

Of course, you're free to grab a top WR instead of a TE here if you'd prefer.


Round 4

QB: Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson
RB: D'Andre Swift, Miles Sanders
WR: Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Robert Woods, CeeDee Lamb

With 2 RBs and a TE on my roster, the War Room is pushing Kyler Murray at this turn. It’s OK to pass if you’d rather wait on the position, but it’s also fine to go ahead and grab a top-shelf QB.

If you start 3 WRs, then that position leads the board by quite a bit here. And there's significant separation between Robinson and the rest. Consider it a win if you get here with 2 workhorse RBs and Waller or Kittle, and still land Robinson as your WR1.


Round 5

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Gus Edwards, Damien Harris, Mike Davis, Javonte Williams
WR: Adam Thielen, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett
TE: Mark Andrews

Prescott enters the view here if you didn't draft a QB yet. He doesn't quite climb to the top of the board, though. ADP says you might get another shot at him in Round 6. We're also OK with waiting and treating Russell Wilson as a fallback -- especially with other QB insurance options also available behind them.

This is a good turn to grab a wideout, especially if you get here with 0 or need to start 3. The War Room also likes the options here for your RB3 spot. Frankly, any position could be a fit at this turn.


Round 6

QB: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert
RB:
Damien Harris, Chase Edmonds, Trey Sermon
WR: Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore
TE: T.J. Hockenson

Get here without a QB, and the War Room will be shoving the position in your face. Prescott is certainly a nice value if he gets here. Whether you'll get 1 more shot at Wilson or Herbert might depend on how close to the turn you're picking. How you view the separation between that trio and the next level -- Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford -- should help guide how you approach the position.

At RB, don't count on Harris making it here. Similarly, this might be your last shot at Sermon if you covet the 49ers rookie.

WR continues to present an attractive set of options at this turn, which makes it easier to go for 1 of those elite TEs back in Round 3.


Round 7

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Trey Sermon, Chase Edmonds, Leonard Fournette
WR: D.J. Moore, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy, Odell Beckham

ADP says you can still find WR2 types at this turn. And you’ll still find upside at the position over the next couple of rounds as well.

For our purposes here, I’m coming out of this turn with a QB, a TE, 3 RBs and 2 WRs.


Round 8

RB: Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Melvin Gordon, Zack Moss
WR: Courtland Sutton, Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham, Kenny Golladay, Robby Anderson

As you can see, there should still be WR upside on the board. They look better than the RB options here -- even if the War Room is pushing RBs up top. You'll find similar RB options next round.


Round 9

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Leonard Fournette, Sony Michel, James Conner, Jamaal Williams
WR: Robby Anderson, Michael Pittman, Elijah Moore, Will Fuller, Mike Williams, Laviska Shenault, Mecole Hardman
TE: Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert

You might notice the board automatically switching to "Upside Mode" in Round 9. As it will say in the explanation at the top of the board: "That weighs a player's ceiling and likelihood of him hitting that ceiling (reflected into DMVP points). This tool helps you to hit those later round gems. You can toggle this “on" and “off" manually at the top of the rankings tab."

Whether you have Upside Mode on or off will affect the order in which players appear at each position the rest of the way. For our purposes here, I'll stick mainly to how we have them in our base projections. But this is absolutely the time in your draft to chase upside.

Anderson would be stellar values at this stage if he gets to you. WR and RB present myriad options if you arrive without needs at the other positions.


Round 10

QB: Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence
RB: Sony Michel, Jamaal Williams
WR: Robby Anderson, Michael Pittman, Elijah Moore, Will Fuller, Mike Williams, Laviska Shenault, Mecole Hardman, D.J. Chark
TE: Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert

With a QB, 4 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 TE already rostered in our 2-WR format, I get different top recommendations depending on whether I have Upside Mode on or off. If I find Michel here, I'll have a tough time not snagging him -- especially with the array of WRs still likely to return in Round 11 and even beyond.


Round 11

QB: Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins
RB: Sony Michel, Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, Phillip Lindsay
WR: Mike Williams, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis
TE: Tyler Higbee

The board will probably tell you RB if you get here with 4 (or fewer) rostered. The upside looks more attractive at WR, though -- especially if Michel is gone. Consider what you already have and who is likely to make it back to you over the next 2 rounds as you decide here.

The board also might favor a backup QB. This is a good area in which to double up if you waited on drafting your first. If you took 1 of our top 6 QBs, though, wait on a 2nd -- and strongly consider not drafting a backup at all. There will be viable options on the waiver wire.

It’s possible to wait until this stage for a TE. The downside risk is obviously that you get last year’s version of Higbee. The hope, though, is that you get a TE who runs more routes (and catches more passes) with Gerald Everett gone. He doesn’t need to get back to the level of late 2019 to pay off at this stage.


Round 12

QB: Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence
RB: Alexander Mattison, Tevin Coleman, Nyheim Hines, Rhamondre Stevenson
WR: Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Corey Davis, Jarvis Landry, Elijah Moore, Darnell Mooney, Curtis Samuel
TE: Tyler Higbee
DST: Colts

Higbee might still be dangling on the board. At this point, he's a solid pick whether you already drafted 1 or not.

There’s better value in the WRs vs. other positions at this turn, but the pick should depend on what you have at each position.

Rounds 13-16

It’s time to fill in reserves wherever needed and or stash upside on your bench. It’s also time in this range to grab your kicker and defense. Denver looks like an attractive value option, with the Giants, Jaguars and Jets waiting in the 1st 3 weeks.


Pick 8, 9 or 10

Rounds 1-2

RB: Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris
WR: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams
TE: Travis Kelce

The 8th pick is the 1st spot that finds Kelce leading the recommended picks in this format. And for good reason. You suddenly run into both RBs that appeared in our First Round Bust article. That’s also a reason to consider each of the top 2 WRs.

If you take Kelce or a WR, then at least 1 of these RBs should make it back to you around the turn. Despite the risk, doubling up at RB is an option at the 10th spot.


Rounds 3-4

QB: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray
RB: Chris Carson, James Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Miles Sanders
WR: Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Robert Woods
TE: George Kittle

Josh Allen's ADP says he might get to this range. Murray's still sits in the middle of Round 4.

Either makes for an OK pick in this range, but we’d rather lean RB or WR in Round 3, depending some on what you selected with your 1st 2 picks.

Opening with 3 RBs and an elite QB or TE is an option from this range, as you’ll have plenty of opportunities to hit WR in the coming rounds. We'd rather lock in the TE than the QB, given the QB options that should find you at the 5-6 turn.

Obviously, WR becomes a higher priority if you need to start 3.


Rounds 5-6

QB: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson
RB: Gus Edwards, Damien Harris, Kareem Hunt, Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon
WR: Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore
TE: Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson

The 2 QBs still in play here might be the main reason to wait on the position earlier. Of course, you could opt for Murray or Allen, but Prescott and Wilson each have the upside to lead the position in fantasy points as well.

At TE, Mark Andrews has similarly already showed us his TD upside as well. He’s just not near as good a bet for targets as the top 3 TEs -- or Hockenson, for that matter.

The WRs here look good as well. If you arrive with 1 or none, you could double up on that group.

The RB landscape here has changed via injuries and trades, though. Edwards and Harris present attractive upside in this range. This is also probably the latest you might have a shot at the 2 rookie RBs listed.

I'm leaving this turn with 3 RBs, 1 WR, 1 elite TE and 1 top-6 QB.


Rounds 7-8

QB: Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford
RB: Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Melvin Gordon, Zack Moss
WR: D.J. Moore, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy, Odell Beckham, Courtland Sutton, Ja'Marr Chase, Kenny Golladay
TE: Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert

If you get here without a QB, then Brady or Stafford would treat you just fine as your #1. You’ll just want to grab a better QB2 than you’d be targeting behind 1 of the earlier studs.

At TE, you’ll need to take Goedert here if you want to secure him. But we have Higbee projected ahead, and ADP says he’ll last at least another turn or 2. So no need to jump here.

Most likely, this will be time to take at least 1 WR -- maybe 2, depending on what you did earlier. You could finish Round 8 with 4 RBs and 4 WRs and still find upside at the 1-starter positions. Golladay's hamstring injury and Chase's lackluster camp and preseason have pushed them down to this ADP range and made them more attractive (because of the lighter draft investment).


Rounds 9-10

QB: Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Justin Fields, Trey Lance
RB: Leonard Fournette, James Conner, Jamaal Williams, Sony Michel
WR: Robby Anderson, Mike Williams, D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks
TE: Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant

This is the range where “Upside Mode” kicks in, boosting the players with higher fantasy ceilings. (You can toggle that off at the top of your War Room if you’d rather stick with straight projections and DMVP points.)

At QB, Hurts and Tannehill present ceilings at least as high as Brady’s -- arguably higher because of the rushing production. Lance enters the list via Upside Mode, but he fits better as a fantasy QB2 than as your 1st -- at least until/unless the 49ers name him the starter.

Elsewhere, the WR options remain strong here if you’ve gone light at the position to this point. There’s upside to the RBs as well, but all 3 listed could use some help from teammate injuries to unlock that upside.

Michel shows up on the board here, but you might need to take him in Round 8 if you're hoping to land him.


Rounds 11-12

QB: Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance
RB: Jamaal Williams, Latavius Murray, Phillip Lindsay, Alexander Mattison, Tevin Coleman
WR: Mike Williams, Brandin Cooks, Laviska Shenault, Michael Gallup, Curtis Samuel, Will Fuller, Elijah Moore
TE: Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki, Jonnu Smith

If you've punted TE to this point, go ahead and grab 1 of these guys.

Otherwise, what you bring to this turn will dictate what you’re focusing on. WR continues to present the most intrigue, but there are options at any position.


Rounds 13-14

QB: Kirk Cousins, Trey Lance, Justin Fields
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, Tevin Coleman, Salvon Ahmed, Ty'Son Williams
WR: Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore, Marquise Brown
DST: Colts, Broncos

Two more shots at upside reserves wherever they’ll help most (or whomever you like most). You could start looking at defenses in this range as well.


Rounds 15-16

Time for a kicker and a defense. Denver looks like an attractive value option, with the Giants, Jaguars and Jets waiting in the 1st 3 weeks.

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