Picking upsets is fun. But that doesn’t mean it’s profitable. (And what’s more fun than winning money?)
So while we’d like to be contrarian with our Super Bowl pick, the smart move is to go with the chalk: Chiefs and Saints.
Home field figures to be the key factor in this year’s playoffs. And the Chiefs and Saints have 2 of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL.
The Chiefs went 7-1 at Arrowhead this season, out-scoring their opponents by a whopping 14.4 points per game. The Saints finished 6-2 — but 1 of those losses came in this past week’s meaningless finale. New Orleans outscored opponents by 8.5 points per game in the Superdome.
Football Outsiders agrees with Chiefs-Saints as our most likely Super Bowl matchup. They give the Saints a 50% chance of reaching the final; the Chiefs 44.3%.
The playoff rankings below are based on the following results, with some hedging to account for the fact that many of these games are essentially coin flips.
Wild Card Round
Colts over Texans
Seahawks over Cowboys
Chargers over Ravens
Bears over Eagles
Chiefs over Colts
Patriots over Chargers
Saints over Seahawks
Rams over Bears
Chiefs over Patriots
Saints over Rams
If you’re looking for some bigger upsets, the Bears, Chargers and Ravens are the teams playing this weekend with the best shot to make a run to the Super Bowl.
On to the rankings, which are based on half-PPR scoring.