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Draft Strategy

Playoff Rankings

By Draft Sharks Staff 2:12pm EST 12/31/18

Picking upsets is fun. But that doesn’t mean it’s profitable. (And what’s more fun than winning money?)

So while we’d like to be contrarian with our Super Bowl pick, the smart move is to go with the chalk: Chiefs and Saints.

Home field figures to be the key factor in this year’s playoffs. And the Chiefs and Saints have 2 of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL.

The Chiefs went 7-1 at Arrowhead this season, out-scoring their opponents by a whopping 14.4 points per game. The Saints finished 6-2 — but 1 of those losses came in this past week’s meaningless finale. New Orleans outscored opponents by 8.5 points per game in the Superdome.

Football Outsiders agrees with Chiefs-Saints as our most likely Super Bowl matchup. They give the Saints a 50% chance of reaching the final; the Chiefs 44.3%.

The playoff rankings below are based on the following results, with some hedging to account for the fact that many of these games are essentially coin flips.

Wild Card Round
Colts over Texans
Seahawks over Cowboys
Chargers over Ravens
Bears over Eagles

Divisional Round
Chiefs over Colts
Patriots over Chargers
Saints over Seahawks
Rams over Bears

Conference Championships
Chiefs over Patriots
Saints over Rams

If you’re looking for some bigger upsets, the Bears, Chargers and Ravens are the teams playing this weekend with the best shot to make a run to the Super Bowl.

On to the rankings, which are based on half-PPR scoring.

Top 50 Overall

1. Travis Kelce
2. Alvin Kamara
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Michael Thomas
5. Tyreek Hill
6. Drew Brees
7. Damien Williams
8. Mark Ingram
9. Todd Gurley (questionable, knee)
10. Robert Woods
11. Brandin Cooks
12. Spencer Ware (questionable, hamstring)
13. T.Y. Hilton
14. Eric Ebron
15. Jared Goff
16. Julian Edelman
17. Tom Brady
18. Zach Ertz
19. Sony Michel
20. Melvin Gordon
21. Keenan Allen
22. DeAndre Hopkins
23. Andrew Luck
24. Doug Baldwin
25. Tyler Lockett
26. Jordan Howard
27. Ezekiel Elliott
28. Chris Carson
29. Rob Gronkowski
30. Trey Burton
31. Allen Robinson (questionable, rib)
32. Josh Reynolds
33. Amari Cooper
34. Mitch Trubisky
35. Russell Wilson
36. Lamar Jackson
37. Ted Ginn
38. Tarik Cohen
39. Marlon Mack
40. James White
41. Gus Edwards
42. Philip Rivers
43. Deshaun Watson
44. Kenneth Dixon
45. Lamar Miller
46. Dak Prescott
47. Alshon Jeffery
48. Gerald Everett
49. Rex Burkhead
50. Mike Williams


1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Drew Brees
3. Jared Goff
4. Tom Brady
5. Andrew Luck
6. Mitch Trubisky
7. Russell Wilson
8. Lamar Jackson
9. Philip Rivers
10. Deshaun Watson
11. Dak Prescott
12. Nick Foles


1. Alvin Kamara
2. Damien Williams
3. Mark Ingram
4. Todd Gurley (questionable, knee)
5. Spencer Ware (questionable, hamstring)
6. Sony Michel
7. Melvin Gordon
8. Jordan Howard
9. Ezekiel Elliott
10. Chris Carson
11. Tarik Cohen
12. Marlon Mack
13. James White
14. Gus Edwards
15. Kenneth Dixon
16. Lamar Miller
17. Rex Burkhead
18. Mike Davis
19. Rashaad Penny
20. Austin Ekeler
21. Darren Sproles
22. Nyheim Hines
23. Wendell Smallwood
24. Josh Adams
25. Alfred Blue
26. C.J. Anderson
27. Darrell Williams
28. Ty Montgomery


1. Michael Thomas
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Robert Woods
4. Brandin Cooks
5. T.Y. Hilton
6. Julian Edelman
7. Keenan Allen
8. DeAndre Hopkins
9. Doug Baldwin
10. Tyler Lockett
11. Allen Robinson (questionable, rib)
12. Josh Reynolds
13. Amari Cooper
14. Ted Ginn
15. Alshon Jeffery
16. Mike Williams
17. Chris Conley
18. Demarcus Robinson
19. Taylor Gabriel (questionable, shoulder)
20. Chris Hogan
21. David Moore
22. Tre’Quan Smith
23. Tyrell Williams
24. Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, knee)
25. Michael Gallup
26. Nelson Agholor
27. Dontrelle Inman
28. Keke Coutee (questionable, hamstring)
29. Keith Kirkwood
30. Chester Rogers
31. Anthony Miller (questionable, shoulder)
32. Golden Tate
33. Phillip Dorsett
34. Zach Pascal
35. Cole Beasley
36. Michael Crabtree
37. Travis Benjamin
38. Willie Snead
39. John Brown
40. DeAndre Carter
41. Vyncint Smith


1. Travis Kelce
2. Eric Ebron
3. Zach Ertz
4. Rob Gronkowski
5. Trey Burton
6. Gerald Everett
7. Ben Watson
8. Mark Andrews
9. Blake Jarwin
10. Hunter Henry
11. Josh Hill
12. Tyler Higbee
13. Nick Vannett
14. Ed Dickson
15. Antonio Gates
16. Dan Arnold
17. Hayden Hurst
18. Mo Alie-Cox
19. Adam Shaheen
20. Ryan Griffin
21. Jordan Thomas
22. Dalton Schultz


1. Wil Lutz
2. Harrison Butker
3. Greg Zuerlein
4. Stephen Gostkowski
5. Cody Parkey
6. Mike Badgley
7. Justin Tucker
8. Adam Vinatieri
9. Sebastian Janikowski
10. Ka’imi Fairbairn
11. Brett Maher
12. Jake Elliott


1. Saints
2. Chiefs
3. Bears
4. Rams
5. Patriots
6. Chargers
7. Seahawks
8. Ravens
9. Texans
10. Cowboys
11. Colts
12. Eagles

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