This is a sneak peek at a subscriber-only article. To get access to all of our award-winning content and projections, become a DS Insider.
With the regular season officially in the rearview, the quest for the Lombardi Trophy begins. There’s not much certainty outside of the top handful of teams who made it to the NFL playoffs. Which team will emerge with the title?
Vegas odds have the Chiefs (+350) and Bills (+400) neck and neck as the Super Bowl favorites, closely followed by the 49ers (+500) and Eagles (+550).
FiveThirtyEight’s model has it similarly, with the Chiefs at 25% odds to win it all and the Bills at 21%. Outside of those 2, the Bengals (8%) are the only other team in the AFC with a better than 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Jaguars, Ravens, and Chargers aren’t expected to go far. It’s pretty clear the AFC is likeliest to come down to the Chiefs and Bills.
The Eagles, on the other hand, possess the highest likelihood (48%) of making the Super Bowl given the overall weakness of the field in the NFC. The 49ers aren’t too far behind them with a 26% chance of their own but are still considered distant. The Cowboys (11%) and Vikings (9%) are the only other teams in the picture with a realistic shot. The Buccaneers and Giants come next on the list and each possess slim chances.
Generally, the odds are in favor of a Super Bowl between either the Chiefs/Bills from the AFC and the Eagles from the NFC. The Dolphins and Seahawks represent the longest shots of any team on either side by contrast. We’re operating on the basis that the Bills ultimately emerge from the AFC for the purposes of these rankings.
One last note: There are a handful of injured players whose names appear in italics below. We’ll be sure to keep readers in the loop about these players and adjust our rankings accordingly based on the news.
1.) Josh Allen, Bills
2.) Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
3.) Jalen Hurts, Eagles
4.) Stefon Diggs, Bills
5.) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs