Draft Strategy

QB Strategy Guide

By Jared Smola 8:08am EDT 8/19/19

Wait on a QB?

Remember when your league mates would look at you all cockeyed when you waited until Round 10 to grab your QB1? Those were the days.

Waiting on your QB has become the cool thing to do. Check out the ADP on QBs 1 through 12 over the last 5 years:

This year’s QB1, Patrick Mahomes, is going in the same range as the QB1s over the previous 3 years. (Although we’ve seen Mahomes drop to the 4th round in plenty of drafts.) But QBs are going later at almost every other spot vs. the past 4 years.

You can get the QB2 where the QB3 was being drafted back in 2015; the QB4 where the QB7 was going; the QB7 where the QB10 was going.

You get the point.

So it makes more sense — presents more value — to target 1 of the top-end QBs now. We’re passing on Mahomes at ADP: the opportunity cost of the RBs and WRs you’re passing on in the 2nd round is just too great.

But Deshaun Watson becomes intriguing if he slips into the latter part of the 4th round, or anywhere in the 5th. His 25.9 fantasy points per game in 22 starts over the past 2 seasons rank 2nd behind only Mahomes — and 1.8 points ahead of #3, Andrew Luck. If he and his top 3 WRs can stay healthy this year, Watson has a shot to lead all QBs in fantasy points.

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