Draft Strategy

Stealing a Top 10 QB

By Kevin English 7:07am EDT 7/26/17


Thinking about using an early pick on a QB? Then you won't like our MVP Board, which will steer you away from the elite options. (There are exceptions, of course, like 2-QB or Superflex leagues.)

Typically, value is in the lower tier of QB1 passers. Guys with the potential to break out but not the track record of QBs ranked higher. Sometimes, you get surprise QB1 performers like Dak Prescott. Or perhaps you’ll get an undervalued vet who explodes — like Matt Ryan, whose ADP sat at QB19 last summer.

He finished 3rd among fantasy passers.

Looking ahead to 2017, we’re once again remaining patient when targeting QBs. So, stockpile RBs, WRs and maybe a TE early in your draft. Then, target 1 or 2 of our favorite value QBs with upside.

The kicker? Each one is going in the 9th round or later of My Fantasy League drafts since July 15.


Philip Rivers, Chargers

DS Rank: QB8

ADP: Round 9, QB15

Starting in 2016, here are Rivers’ fantasy finishes over the past 4 seasons:

6th

10th

9th

6th

Yet if you look at his ADP, he's priced 5 spots lower than his worst finish during that span.

Something’s surgely changed entering 2017, his 14th season…right? Well, Rivers will play under a new HC — Anthony Lynn. But veteran Ken Whisenhunt returns as OC.

The O-line received a makeover, but that’s not a bad development considering their 2016 struggles. Russell Okung was brought in to stabilize the LT spot. The team also added top rookies Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney to fortify the interior.

Those are pretty much the only noteworthy changes we see (other than the Chargers bolting San Diego for L.A).

Sure, Mike Williams arrived early in Round 1 of the draft, but a back injury has his production in doubt. Anything Rivers gets from the rookie should be considered a bonus.

This team is plenty deep with Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman and Travis Benjamin. TEs Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates provide key red zone targets, too. Last year, only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan tossed more RZ TDs than Rivers.

Melvin Gordon -- a TD machine last year -- added 41 grabs at 10.2 per.

We get that there’s little flare to Rivers’ game. He won’t provide much (if anything) as a rusher. And there’s admittedly some risk of physical decline for a guy set to turn 36 in December.

Still, he hasn’t missed a game since becoming the starter in 2006. So given his situation, recent play and draft cost, he’s among our favorite targets in 2017 drafts.


Sorry, the rest of this content is reserved for DS Insiders.

Get instant access to read it all.

Get the insider information

Already a DS Insider? Login now

Share This!

Agree? Disagree? Tell us what you think in the comments:

comments powered by Disqus

Related Fantasy Football

Podcast: July ADP Check 7-18-19

Panthers receivers are shooting up draft boards. Melvin Gordon Holdout Mania is resetting ADPs in the Chargers' backfield. And QBs are moving all over the place. Let's check in to see how player values have shifted and what that will mean for your fantasy football draft.

11:07pm EDT 7/18/19 Read More
Premium Content 6 Offensive Lines Poised to Help or Harm Your Fantasy Team

Offensive line quality is baked into our rankings and projections. But let's examine a handful of units that warrant extra attention.

9:07am EDT 7/15/19 Read More
Podcast: AFC North Projections 7-11-19

Let's wrap up the series by pointing out some underrated Bengals, some overrated QBs and the big changes that will shape fantasy football in the AFC North in 2019.

11:07am EDT 7/12/19 Read More
Fantasy Football Podcast: AFC West Projections 6-13-19

What will Antonio Brown mean for the Raiders? What do a new QB and new coaching staff mean for the Broncos? Which Charger is getting drafted way too early? And how much will Tyreek Hill even play in 2019? The answers could shape how you draft ...

1:06pm EDT 6/12/19 Read More
Is Carson Wentz Ready to Win You a Championship?

Carson Wentz just got his money from the Eagles. Now he looks poised to deliver you big value in fantasy football drafts.

10:06am EDT 6/11/19 Read More
Fantasy Football Podcast: NFC East Projections 5-30-19

The NFC East sports the likely top 2 picks in most fantasy football drafts this season, plus a couple of 1st-round QBs and the 2nd RB drafted in April. What should you expect from this loaded division?

10:05pm EDT 5/30/19 Read More
Fantasy Football Podcast: Dynasty QBs 2-7-19

Let's kick of the dynasty updates series on the podcast with QB: including the DS top 5 and our personal buy/sell candidates.

7:02pm EST 2/7/19 Read More

Read More Articles

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Download on Google Play