Draft Strategy

Stealing a Top 10 QB

By Kevin English 9:07am EDT 7/18/19

It happens every year.

Several QBs emerge from draft-value range to produce excellent fantasy results.

Consider last summer, when Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott each had ADPs in Round 10 or later. Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck lasted until the Round 8/9 range.

Those 6 guys made up half of fantasy’s top-12 passers. In fact, Mahomes, Big Ben, Ryan and Luck filled the top 4 spots.

While QB depth is widely recognized, we still need to pinpoint our mid-to-late-round targets.

Here are 4 upside passers to consider drafting— each with an ADP in Round 10 or later.

Jameis Winston, Buccaneers

Winston has already performed as a top-10 QB. That happened in 2016 when 28 TD passes propelled him to a QB10 finish.

More relevant is Winston’s 2018 play, which proved excellent when he stayed on the field.

In 9 full games, his average fantasy point total amounted to 24.5. That would have ranked 5th over a full season. While turnovers remained an issue, Winston set career highs in completion rate (64.6%), yards per game (272.0) and TD rate (5.0%).

A Bucs backfield of Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones all but ensures that Winston’s volume will be fantasy-friendly. So does new HC Bruce Arians, who's led 9 units (in 14 seasons as a HC or OC) to a top-15 rank in passing yards.

It’s easy to get excited about the weapons. Mike Evans turns just 26 in August and has reached 1,000 yards in each of his 5 pro seasons. Chris Godwin brings the size, athleticism and production to project another step forward in year 3. He recorded 59-842-7 last year despite a crowded WR corps.

Then there’s TE O.J. Howard. His 2018 season ended after 10 games due to a high-ankle sprain. But when healthy, he played like a top-tier TE with a 71% catch rate a massive 16.6 yards per catch.

So even after losing DeSean Jackson, this looks like one of the league’s top pass-catching units. Entering a contract year, Winston’s one of our favorite QB targets.

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