My favorite Thanksgiving side? Stuffing.
My 2nd favorite? DraftKings.
Here are some thoughts on each position for the 3-game Thanksgiving slate …
I did a double take when I saw Dak Prescott’s price. $5,700?! Cheaper than Drew Brees, Matt Ryan AND Josh Allen?! Prescott leads all of those guys in DK points per game. And while the Bills have been tough against the pass all season, Dak has been money at home, averaging 28.1 DK points.
Prescott figures to be massively owned. Drew Brees ($6,800) is the pivot in tournaments. On top of lower ownership, I also think he has the highest ceiling on the slate. He’s tossed 3 TDs in 3 of 4 games back from that thumb injury. The lone exception was the 1st meeting with the Falcons — but I’m tossing out that goofy game. Expect much better in the rematch with a team that’s allowed the 6th most passing yards and 5th most TDs on the season.
Play both Alvin Kamara ($8,100) and Ezekiel Elliott ($7,400) in cash games. It’s easy enough to fit them both in — and they’re both underpriced for the floor/ceiling combos they provide.
Devin Singletary ($5,800) actually pops up as the 2nd best dollars-per-point value on the slate, just ahead of Zeke. The rookie has averaged 16 carries and 79.5 rushing yards over his last 4 games — plus 3.3 targets, 2 catches and 16.3 receiving yards. The Bills are 7-point underdogs in Dallas, but Singletary’s pass-catching role gives him a relatively high floor.
Consider Tarik Cohen ($5,000) in tournaments. He’s averaging 6 targets and 4.5 catches over the past 4 weeks. That stretch includes a 4-23-1 receiving line vs. the Lions, who have allowed the most receiving TDs and 3rd most receiving yards to RBs. Football Outsiders ranks Detroit 27th in RB coverage.
Play Michael Thomas ($9,100) in cash games. It’s easy enough to fit him in alongside Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott.
Michael Gallup ($5,500) looks like a strong play in both cash games and tournaments. Like the rest of the Cowboys passing game, he’s been more productive at home (19.3 DK points per game) than on the road (13.8). And with Bills CB Tre’Davious White likely to shadow Amari Cooper, Gallup will see a bunch of CB Levi Wallace, who ranks 73rd among 134 qualifying CBs in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades.
Speaking of Amari Cooper ($6,000), he’s the biggest conundrum on the slate. The price is right. And he’s been an absolute beast at home this season, posting the following lines:
6-106-1
6-88-2
11-226-1
5-106
11-147-1
But Cooper has been dealing with a bunch of lower-body injuries for most of the season, has totaled just 3 catches on 10 targets for 38 scoreless yards over the past 2 weeks (both on the road, of course) and gets that aforementioned Tre’Davious White matchup. White is a big reason why Buffalo ranks 5th in coverage against #1 WRs, according to Football Outsiders DVOA.
My favorite money-saving play on Thanksgiving: Anthony Miller ($3,900). He’s already tallied 12 catches and 20 targets over the past 2 weeks — and now Taylor Gabriel is out with his concussion. Plus, Miller gets a Lions defense that’s allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Miller has run 80% of his routes from the slot this season.
We project Jared Cook ($4,800) for 12 DK points and no other TE for more than 7.7. You’ll need to pay up for him — and I don’t think he’s a must in cash games. But get some exposure to Cook in tournaments. He’s totaled 20 targets in 3 games back from injury, including a 10-target, 6-catch, 74-yard outing against the Falcons a few weeks ago.
There isn’t another great TE play on the slate. Jason Witten ($3,300) is the least bad of the remaining options. He gets a Bills defense that sits 1st in DK points allowed to TEs and 12th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings. But Witten is a decent volume bet, with 4+ targets in every game this season and 3+ catches in 9 of 11 outings. We’ll be fine in cash games if we can get 6+ points out of him.
Dawson Knox ($2,900) is a cheapie to consider in tournaments. He’s topped 2 catches and 3 targets in just 1 of his last 5 games, so he’s certainly not safe. But this matchup might dictate a bit more action for the rookie. Football Outsiders ranks the Cowboys 23rd in TE coverage. Only 4 teams have allowed more DK points to the position.
The Bears ($2,500) easily pop as the top value on the slate. They’re not the dominant unit they were last year, but they still rank 4th in points allowed, 4th in yards allowed and 6th in defensive DVOA. And Chicago will either draw a less-than-100% Jeff Driskel or David Blough on Thursday.
The contrarian move in tournaments is to pay up for the Saints ($3,500). They lead all defenses on this slate with 8.8 DK points per game and have 5 outings of double-digit points. Atlanta will remain without TE Austin Hooper on Thursday night. We’ll see if RB Devonta Freeman and WR Julio Jones are able to play.