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Top Plays for Divisional Round Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 11:18pm EST 1/19/23


What a way to start the NFL playoffs!

Four straight games delivered 55+ points. Only 1 game didn’t have a team reach 31. Three QBs topped 30 fantasy points. FOUR TEs went over 20 PPR points.

This week has to fall short of that offensive production … right?

The early Underdog Pick Em options, meanwhile, proved a bit more challenging for our numbers.

Justin Jefferson tanked.
Tony Pollard did it on the ground instead of receiving.
Saquon Barkley did it as a receiver, while logging just 9 carries in a win.
Austin Ekeler found the end zone twice but otherwise went quiet on the ground.

Still, we pulled out an 8-9 record on highlighted plays – just the 3rd time all year we've gone 50% or lower in hit rate.

Here’s the season record …

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Week 11: 10-8
Week 12: 18-13
Week 13: 11-6
Week 14: 7-9
Week 15: 22-14
Week 16: 15-11
Week 17: 13-3
Week 18: 8-6
Wild Card: 8-9
Overall: 243-163

Now let’s jump back in for the Divisional Round. Fewer teams, of course, means fewer highlighted plays. And there are interesting options among the 13 below. If you haven’t played before, hit the graphic below to get some free money on Underdog …

Of course, as always, you can compare the Underdog player-prop lines to our fantasy football rankings for the Divisional Round.


Passing

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Draft Sharks projection: 269.5 yards
Underdog: 250.5
Difference: 19

Jalen Hurts, Eagles
DS: 234.5
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: -11


QB Total Yards

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Draft Sharks projection: 287.5
Underdog: 267.5
Difference: 20

Daniel Jones, Giants
DS: 260.4
Underdog: 270.5
Difference: -10.1

Josh Allen, Bills
DS: 313.9
Underdog: 324.5
Difference: -10.6

Brock Purdy, 49ers
DS: 236.1
Underdog: 251.5
Difference: -15.4

Jalen Hurts, Eagles
DS: 286.4
Underdog: 304.5
Difference: -18.1

This seems like a good time to point out – in case you didn’t already realize it – that the total-yards props for QBs always sit higher than the sum of their passing and rushing lines. That’s particularly reflected here. None of the QB lines for passing yards or rushing yards sits far enough apart from our projections as of this writing to highlight them here. Yet half the QBs pop as potential “under” bets on total yards.

I can’t say I could comfortably bet the under on either Allen or Hurts. But Allen has reached this week’s total-yards line just 4 times over his past 11 games. Hurts has reached this week’s line just 5 times all season.


Receiving

Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles
Draft Sharks projection: 57.1 yards
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: 8.6

Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys
DS: 38.2
Underdog: 46.5
Difference: -8.3

Schultz went nuts last week vs. a Bucs D that added 4% to opponent TE scoring all year. This week finds the 49ers, who have sapped 19.5% of TE production – 7th toughest by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Goedert, meanwhile, gets a Giants D that just finished playing conveyor belt to T.J. Hockenson for the 2nd time this year.


Rushing

Elijah Mitchell, 49ers
Draft Sharks projection: 38.5 yards
Underdog: 30.5
Difference: 8

Tony Pollard, Cowboys
DS: 40.1
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: -8.4


RB Total Yards

Elijah Mitchell, 49ers
Draft Sharks projection: 44.9 yards
Underdog: 36.5
Difference: 8.4

Joe Mixon, Bengals
DS: 83.2
Underdog: 75.5
Difference: 7.7

Mitchell ran for just 2 yards last week but carried 9 times and drew 3 targets, 12 opportunities vs. Christian McCaffrey’s 17.

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