Top Plays for Week 10 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 12:35pm EST 11/9/22

Beware. There are scary recommendations in this article.

And we’re past Halloween, so you know I’m not just going with a schtick.

I’ve mentioned before that I try to keep my personal preference for individual bets out of these articles. I’ll mention at times that trusting Russell Wilson this season makes me queasy, or that betting against Cooper Kupp or Davante Adams invites risk.

But the point of this article is to help you make money. And we’re doing that by laying out the largest gaps between our weekly yardage projections and the early lines on Underdog.

How well is that working so far? Well, you can see the weekly results below. (Spoiler alert: It’s going pretty well.)

I mentioned Kupp and Adams, each of whom appeared as “unders” in last week’s article. Neither worked out.

Both are back for this week … and they’re on the “under” side again. And they’re not the only big names on that side.

Who ranks among the “overs”? Well, that group includes a slow-blooming Panthers pass-catcher and a Falcons RB not named Cordarrelle Patterson. Comfy bets? No, but that doesn’t mean they can’t work out.

We do balance that out with plenty of names who should be much easier to trust. And, of course, our results to date are the biggest reason to read to the end.

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Overall: 114-70

Packers RB Aaron Jones got removed from the final tally because he left Sunday’s game early. He didn’t appear on his way to hitting the recommended over. So if you want to count him as a loss and move that to 114-71 for the year, you are certainly welcome to.

The QB numbers once again drove the Week 9 success, as 6 of our 8 passing recommendations hit.

This week presents another 9 early QB passing lines to consider – plus 4 more in the total-yards category.

Overall, we’ve got a season-high 31 players in this article. As always, you should check our Week 10 fantasy football rankings throughout the week for more.

Passing

P.J. Walker, Panthers
Draft Sharks projection: 205.8 yards
Underdog: 182.5
Difference: 23.3

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
DS: 288.4
Underdog: 272.5
Difference: 15.9

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
DS: 260.3
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: 14.8

Russell Wilson, Broncos
DS: 241.7
Underdog: 230.5
Difference: 11.2

Jared Goff, Lions
DS: 234.1
Underdog: 250.5
Difference: -16.4

Derek Carr, Raiders
DS: 229.7
Underdog: 247.5
Difference: -17.8

Aaron Rodgers, Packers
DS: 213.6
Underdog: 235.5
Difference: -21.9

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
DS: 242.8
Underdog: 266.5
Difference: -23.7

Kirk Cousins, Vikings
DS: 234.3
Underdog: 265.5
Difference: -31.2

The last time Walker faced the Falcons, he topped 300 passing yards. The last time he took the field, he got yanked at halftime with 9 passing yards. I’d keep both of those in mind as you decide what to do with him this week. For what it’s worth, if you remove halftime and the 62-yard regulation-ending TD to D.J. Moore, then Walker threw for 188 yards at Atlanta in Week 8.

Goff has hit the over and then the under for us the past 2 weeks, the only 2 times he’s made this article so far this season. Let’s see if we can keep that roll going.

QB Total Yards

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Draft Sharks projection: 350.1 yards
Underdog: 301.5
Difference: 48.6

Jalen Hurts, Eagles
DS: 308
Underdog: 285.5
Difference: 22.5

Kenny Pickett, Steelers
DS: 247.7
Underdog: 235.5
Difference: 12.2

Taylor Heinicke, Commanders
DS: 221.9
Underdog: 235.5
Difference: -13.6

I warned about some scary bets in this article: Taking the “over” on Mahomes and Hurts certainly do not fit that category. Mahomes, in particular, is coming off 2 straight games over 400 yards passing. His line looks likely to rise this week.

Receiving

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears
Draft Sharks projection: 56.2
Underdog: 43.5
Difference: 12.7

George Pickens, WR, Steelers
DS: 55.5
Underdog: 43.5
Difference: 12

A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
DS: 83.9
Underdog: 73.5
Difference: 10.4

Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars
DS: 68.8
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 9.3

Terrace Marshall, WR, Panthers
DS: 44.7
Underdog: 36.5
Difference: 8.2

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
DS: 76.3
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: 7.8

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles
DS: 58.6
Underdog: 51.5
Difference: 7.1

Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
DS: 80.6
Underdog: 97.5
Difference: -16.9

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
DS: 76.5
Underdog: 94.5
Difference: -18

Look where we are. This season started with Terrace Marshall trailing Shi Smith on the depth chart. Now we’re above-market on his Week 10 yardage. I’m not sure I’m ready to click that particular button, but it’s at least progress for the former 2nd-round pick to make it this far.

Kupp and Adams, of course, lead my “scary” list. Kupp would have fallen well short of last week’s yardage prop without the 69-yard TD, and totaled 80 and 79 yards the 2 games prior.

Adams’ weekly yardage looks like a crypto price chart (except that it’s most recent tally is up) …

Rushing

Tyler Allgeier, Falcons
Draft Sharks projection: 42.5 yards
Underdog: 32.5
Difference: 10

Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
DS: 88.7
Underdog: 79.5
Difference: 9.2

Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons
DS: 61.2
Underdog: 52.5
Difference: 8.7

Nick Chubb, Browns
DS: 76.4
Underdog: 86.5
Difference: -10.1

Miles Sanders, Eagles
DS: 64.4
Underdog: 75.5
Difference: -11.1

RB Total Yards

Saquon Barkley, Giants
Draft Sharks projection: 127
Underdog: 110.5
Difference: 16.5

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
DS: 128.2
Underdog: 112.5
Difference: 15.7

Tyler Allgeier, Falcons
DS: 49.6
Underdog: 39.5
Difference: 10.1

Austin Ekeler, Chargers
DS: 77.8
Underdog: 101.5
Difference: -23.7

Underdog’s numbers vs. ours make it look like we’re significantly higher on Allgeier than the early market. Really, though, it looks like their early numbers are lower on the Atlanta run game as a whole.

You can see that we’re also over on Patterson’s rushing. That’s true of his total yards as well, just not by enough to make my cutoff for this article (+/- 7 yards).

Atlanta gave its RBs 30 carries last Sunday, with Patterson and Allgeier combining for 23-143-2 rushing against the Chargers. Without Patterson in Week 8, Falcons RBs also carried 30 times against Carolina. Allgeier and Caleb Huntley combined for 30-130 on the ground.

So it’s not outlandish at all to project 103.7 rushing yards between Patterson and Allgeier this week.