Show Navigation
Show Menu

Top Plays for Week 11 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 9:22am EST 11/16/22

You want an overarching strategy tip for attacking these Pick Ems?

Play the QB yardage lines.

If you’ve read any of these weekly articles, then you know I’ve been tracking the weekly success (or lack) of these recommendations. And we’re doing pretty well … as you’ll see again below.

As I’ve mentioned before, though, the QB numbers have been the best bets by far – and that rang true once again in Week 10. Our passing selections went 6-3, bringing the season total in that category to 44-19.

Week 6 has been the only sub-.500 week there. Outside of that week, we’re looking at 69.8% success on passing props (a bump of 6 percentage points vs. including Week 6). And just 1 other week has finished at .500.

QB total yards have been even more successful. Eleven of 15 recommendations have hit there – 73.3% success.

(Of course, my personal bankroll would be in much better shape if Jalen Hurts hadn’t fallen short on Monday night.)

The QB yardage is especially kind to early bettors. Naturally, we’re working with bigger numbers in the passing category than we are with rushing and receiving. So that leaves more room for alterations up and down throughout the week, and you’ll see some wide swings if you track these numbers. Sometimes the lines have moved by more than 5 yards between when I collect the data (late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning) and when I post the article (before noon Wednesday).

So jump on those QB lines early. And if you’re new, click the graphic below for a special offer.

Outside of the QBs, last Wednesday’s picks didn’t do so hot. But we did still finish in the black once again. The weekly numbers to date:

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Overall: 131-84

As you can see, last week presented us an abnormally large number of picks. This week brings just 18 – a big dip vs. that spike but much more in line with the season to date.

We’ll, of course, get many more lines throughout the week. So make sure you check our Week 11 fantasy football rankings pages regularly.


Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Draft Sharks projection: 270.8 yards
Underdog: 257.5
Difference: 13.3

Mac Jones, Patriots
DS: 207.2
Underdog: 196.5
Difference: 10.7

Kirk Cousins, Vikings
DS: 249.5
Underdog: 264.5
Difference: -15

Jared Goff, Lions
DS: 217.9
Underdog: 241.5
Difference: -23.6

Derek Carr, Raiders
DS: 206.2
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: -39.3

QB Total Yards

Russell Wilson, Broncos
Draft Sharks projection: 269.6 yards
Underdog: 254.5
Difference: 15.1

Lamar Jackson, Ravens
DS: 259.3
Underdog: 278.5
Difference: -19.2

The Mac Jones line is interesting. He threw for 194 yards in beating the Jets on the road in Week 8, then threw for just 147 in beating Indy the following week. But those 2 most recent exposures make it easy to forget that Jones threw for 213, 252 and 321 in his 1st 3 outings this season.

The Jets, meanwhile, have toughened on defense this season. But only Jones and Dolphins QB Skylar Thompson have fallen short of Jones’ line against them for this week. (They did hold Josh Allen to 205 yards the last time out, though.)

This marks the 4th time that Lamar Jackson has showed up as a total-yards under here. We got him wrong in Week 8 but correct the previous 2 times. Jackson also hit for us the only time he’s made this article as a passing over (Week 2).

Russell Wilson I’ve mentioned multiple times here as an uncomfortable over play. But he has delivered each of the past 3 times we included him in this space. The only time he hasn’t so far was back in Week 2 – against a Houston defense that has been surprisingly tough on QB scoring.


Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears
Draft Sharks projection: 58.9 yards
Underdog: 45.5
Difference: 13.4

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
DS: 83.1
Underdog: 73.5
Difference: 9.6

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
DS: 57.9
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 7.4

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Titans
DS: 29.5
Underdog: 22.5
Difference: 7

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings
DS: 46.7
Underdog: 54.5
Difference: -7.8

D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
DS: 53.9
Underdog: 62.5
Difference: -8.6

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
DS: 76.6
Underdog: 86.5
Difference: -9.9

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
DS: 69.6
Underdog: 79.5
Difference: -9.9

Brandin Cooks, WR, Texans
DS: 44.6
Underdog: 60.5
Difference: -15.9

Everyone’s reveling in the Justin Fields breakthrough, but Darnell Mooney’s initial line looks disrespectful. He has fallen short of 50 receiving yards just once in the past 7 games. And even that outing found him catching 7 passes and falling just 2.5 yards short of this week’s 45.5-yard line. WRs – especially outside guys – will not commonly produce such little yardage on so many catches. (That game found Mooney 3.6 yards per catch short of any other outing since Week 3.)

Brandin Cooks’ line, on the other hand, seems to lean the opposite direction. He has reached 60 yards just twice in 8 games. The veteran has also caught just 4 passes in each of his past 4 outings, reaching 50 yards once in that span.

RB Total Yards

Jonathan Taylor, Colts
Draft Sharks projection: 114.5 yards
Underdog: 95.5
Difference: 19

Dalvin Cook, Vikings
DS: 102.7
Underdog: 94.5
Difference: 8.2

Not much for us to use on the RB front yet, but this Jonathan Taylor line seems likely to rise as we move toward gameday. He and the Colts face a Philly defense that ranks 1st in Football Outsiders pass DVOA, 28th against the run. (Wonder how Indy might try to attack???)

Dalvin Cook, meanwhile, is averaging 97 total yards per game for the season. Dallas’ past 3 games included:

  • 156 total yards for Aaron Jones
  • 170 for Bears RBs
  • 113 for Jamaal Williams + Craig Reynolds

Related Fantasy Football

Top Running Backs (RB) For Fantasy Football 2023

Top Running Backs (RB) For Fantasy Football 2023

5:32pm EDT 5/26/23

Not all top fantasy running backs sit in Round 1 of fantasy football drafts. Find out who leads our rankings and which stud RB you might get at a discount.

Read More »
Top Tight Ends (TE) For Fantasy Football in 2023

Top Tight Ends (TE) For Fantasy Football in 2023

11:48am EDT 5/25/23

This year's top fantasy tight ends include some guys who stepped up in 2022, some guys who let you down ... and maybe a surprise or two.

Read More »
Top Wide Receivers (WRs) For 2023 Fantasy Football

Top Wide Receivers (WRs) For 2023 Fantasy Football

1:09pm EDT 5/23/23

Landing a top wide receiver in fantasy football is more important than ever. Here are the wide receivers to target early in 2023 drafts.

Read More »
Dynasty Trade Targets: Pre-2023 NFL Draft

Dynasty Trade Targets: Pre-2023 NFL Draft

10:22pm EDT 4/25/23

Thinking about making some trades before the 2023 NFL Draft? C.H. Herms is here to give you a list of prime dynasty trade targets to consider.

Read More »
Way Too Early Fantasy Football Rankings 2023

Way Too Early Fantasy Football Rankings 2023

12:10pm EDT 4/20/23

Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes? Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase? Let's answer those questions (and more) with a look at way too early 2023 fantasy football rankings.

Read More »
NFL Cap Space 2023 | Getting a Fantasy Read

NFL Cap Space 2023 | Getting a Fantasy Read

4:35pm EST 3/6/23

The Chicago Bears can afford whomever they want. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have no room under the salary cap. Find out which teams will be most affected by NFL cap space for 2023 and what that means for your best ball drafting right now.

Read More »
2023 NFL Free Agency Predictions

2023 NFL Free Agency Predictions

2:45pm EST 2/27/23

Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, and Jakobi Meyers rank among the biggest names of 2023 NFL free agency. Where might they and 7 other key players land? And how will that impact your fantasy football team?

Read More »
Dominate your Fantasy League with
the Ultimate Tool Stack
In the heat of a draft, you want as much intel as possible. The key is integrating that into one simple, powerful tool.
Dominate your Fantasy League with
the Ultimate Tool Stack
In the heat of a draft, you want as much intel as possible. The key is integrating that into one simple, powerful tool.
3D Projections

3D Projections

3D Projections: True Dimension of Every Player’s Potential

Based on our award-winning projections, an axis of data points give insights far deeper than a ranking

View Our Accuracy Awards View Our Accuracy Awards »

Advice Draft Strategy

Advice That’s Actionable on Draft Day

Round-by-Round Draft Strategy Guides, Sleepers, Undervalued Players, Busts and Handcuffs

3D Projections

Draft War Room

Draft War Room: Intel Turned Into Killer Picks

Command your entire draft with a dynamic tool synced to your league. Updating and adapting in real time.

3D Projections

Keep Dominating Throughout The Season

Quickly find the free-agent gems, pull the trigger on the perfect trade & make the right start/sit decisions.

Keep Dominating
Draft Sharks

$6/month thereafter, billed semi-annually, one-click cancel anytime.

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play