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Top Plays for Week 11 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 9:22am EST 11/16/22


You want an overarching strategy tip for attacking these Pick Ems?

Play the QB yardage lines.

If you’ve read any of these weekly articles, then you know I’ve been tracking the weekly success (or lack) of these recommendations. And we’re doing pretty well … as you’ll see again below.

As I’ve mentioned before, though, the QB numbers have been the best bets by far – and that rang true once again in Week 10. Our passing selections went 6-3, bringing the season total in that category to 44-19.

Week 6 has been the only sub-.500 week there. Outside of that week, we’re looking at 69.8% success on passing props (a bump of 6 percentage points vs. including Week 6). And just 1 other week has finished at .500.

QB total yards have been even more successful. Eleven of 15 recommendations have hit there – 73.3% success.

(Of course, my personal bankroll would be in much better shape if Jalen Hurts hadn’t fallen short on Monday night.)

The QB yardage is especially kind to early bettors. Naturally, we’re working with bigger numbers in the passing category than we are with rushing and receiving. So that leaves more room for alterations up and down throughout the week, and you’ll see some wide swings if you track these numbers. Sometimes the lines have moved by more than 5 yards between when I collect the data (late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning) and when I post the article (before noon Wednesday).

So jump on those QB lines early. And if you’re new, click the graphic below for a special offer.

Outside of the QBs, last Wednesday’s picks didn’t do so hot. But we did still finish in the black once again. The weekly numbers to date:

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Overall: 131-84

As you can see, last week presented us an abnormally large number of picks. This week brings just 18 – a big dip vs. that spike but much more in line with the season to date.

We’ll, of course, get many more lines throughout the week. So make sure you check our Week 11 fantasy football rankings pages regularly.


Passing

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Draft Sharks projection: 270.8 yards
Underdog: 257.5
Difference: 13.3

Mac Jones, Patriots
DS: 207.2
Underdog: 196.5
Difference: 10.7

Kirk Cousins, Vikings
DS: 249.5
Underdog: 264.5
Difference: -15

Jared Goff, Lions
DS: 217.9
Underdog: 241.5
Difference: -23.6

Derek Carr, Raiders
DS: 206.2
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: -39.3


QB Total Yards

Russell Wilson, Broncos
Draft Sharks projection: 269.6 yards
Underdog: 254.5
Difference: 15.1

Lamar Jackson, Ravens
DS: 259.3
Underdog: 278.5
Difference: -19.2

The Mac Jones line is interesting. He threw for 194 yards in beating the Jets on the road in Week 8, then threw for just 147 in beating Indy the following week. But those 2 most recent exposures make it easy to forget that Jones threw for 213, 252 and 321 in his 1st 3 outings this season.

The Jets, meanwhile, have toughened on defense this season. But only Jones and Dolphins QB Skylar Thompson have fallen short of Jones’ line against them for this week. (They did hold Josh Allen to 205 yards the last time out, though.)

This marks the 4th time that Lamar Jackson has showed up as a total-yards under here. We got him wrong in Week 8 but correct the previous 2 times. Jackson also hit for us the only time he’s made this article as a passing over (Week 2).

Russell Wilson I’ve mentioned multiple times here as an uncomfortable over play. But he has delivered each of the past 3 times we included him in this space. The only time he hasn’t so far was back in Week 2 – against a Houston defense that has been surprisingly tough on QB scoring.


Receiving

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears
Draft Sharks projection: 58.9 yards
Underdog: 45.5
Difference: 13.4

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
DS: 83.1
Underdog: 73.5
Difference: 9.6

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
DS: 57.9
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 7.4

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Titans
DS: 29.5
Underdog: 22.5
Difference: 7

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings
DS: 46.7
Underdog: 54.5
Difference: -7.8

D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
DS: 53.9
Underdog: 62.5
Difference: -8.6

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
DS: 76.6
Underdog: 86.5
Difference: -9.9

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
DS: 69.6
Underdog: 79.5
Difference: -9.9

Brandin Cooks, WR, Texans
DS: 44.6
Underdog: 60.5
Difference: -15.9

Everyone’s reveling in the Justin Fields breakthrough, but Darnell Mooney’s initial line looks disrespectful. He has fallen short of 50 receiving yards just once in the past 7 games. And even that outing found him catching 7 passes and falling just 2.5 yards short of this week’s 45.5-yard line. WRs – especially outside guys – will not commonly produce such little yardage on so many catches. (That game found Mooney 3.6 yards per catch short of any other outing since Week 3.)

Brandin Cooks’ line, on the other hand, seems to lean the opposite direction. He has reached 60 yards just twice in 8 games. The veteran has also caught just 4 passes in each of his past 4 outings, reaching 50 yards once in that span.


RB Total Yards

Jonathan Taylor, Colts
Draft Sharks projection: 114.5 yards
Underdog: 95.5
Difference: 19

Dalvin Cook, Vikings
DS: 102.7
Underdog: 94.5
Difference: 8.2

Not much for us to use on the RB front yet, but this Jonathan Taylor line seems likely to rise as we move toward gameday. He and the Colts face a Philly defense that ranks 1st in Football Outsiders pass DVOA, 28th against the run. (Wonder how Indy might try to attack???)

Dalvin Cook, meanwhile, is averaging 97 total yards per game for the season. Dallas’ past 3 games included:

  • 156 total yards for Aaron Jones
  • 170 for Bears RBs
  • 113 for Jamaal Williams + Craig Reynolds

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