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Top Plays for Week 12 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 9:34am EST 11/23/22


I don’t know about you, but I was so close to a big Week 11 on here. Derek Freakin’ Carr had other ideas, though.

I felt plenty good about the under-245.5 on him (as well as Jared Goff's under; that one hit). So I included Carr in multiple Pick Ems. And had the Raiders-Broncos game ended in regulation, I might be smoking a cigar right now. (Probably not, though. It’s 8:07 a.m. as I write this.)

But Carr racked up 68 yards on just 2 completions in extra time, vaulting his 239 yards to 307.

Ugh.

Jonathan Taylor hurt as well, missing his total-yards line by just 1.5. To be fair, though, Russell Wilson hitting his over by 0.5 displayed some luck the other way. Then again, if the Broncos could show even a modicum of competence, he would have thrown for more than 247 yards (or, I don’t know, a TD) against the league’s friendliest QB defense. That would have helped me avoid the Carr crash.

But we still made it out on top for NFL Week 11 player props. Here’s the updated weekly tally, still with just 1 week that hasn't been above .500 …

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Week 11: 10-8
Overall: 141-92

Now on to this week’s selections, for the unique week that accompanies Thanksgiving.

We have more early lines than usual, thanks to 3 Thursday games and no byes. That helped us collect 31 player-yardage lines below – up 13 from last week. And that includes 12 selections from Thanksgiving Day games alone.

Additionally, Underdog has “boosted” the passing line for Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. That means betting his line – which you’ll find highlighted below – will increase the payout if you win.

You can only use that boost once, though. So play it smart. And if you haven’t played Pick Em on Underdog yet, hit this graphic for a big bonus on your 1st deposit.


As always, you can find more player-prop recommendations throughout the week in our Week 12 projections.


Passing

Geno Smith, Seahawks
Draft Sharks projection: 266.1 yards
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: 20.6

Ryan Tannehill, Titans
DS: 205.9
Underdog: 187.5
Difference: 18.4

Josh Allen, Bills
DS: 296.8
Underdog: 282.5
Difference: 14.3

Justin Herbert, Chargers
DS: 293.4
Underdog: 280.5
Difference: 12.9

Russell Wilson, Broncos
DS: 240.3
Underdog: 229.5
Difference: 10.8

Tom Brady, Buccaneers
DS: 284.9
Underdog: 274.5
Difference: 10.4

Daniel Jones, Giants
DS: 203.8
Underdog: 193.5
Difference: 10.3

*Dak Prescott, Cowboys*
DS: 257.5
Underdog: 247.5
Difference: 10

Kirk Cousins, Vikings
DS: 234.7
Underdog: 251.5
Difference: -16.8

Matt Ryan, Colts
DS: 217.7
Underdog: 239.5
Difference: -21.8

Aaron Rodgers, Packers
DS: 208.3
Underdog: 236.5
Difference: -28.2

The boost on Prescott’s passing yardage is no gimme, as our mere 10-yard over suggests. But he has thrown for 250+ in 3 straight games, including 2 in which he attempted fewer than 28 passes. The biggest risk for Prescott’s passing total would be a successful run-heavy approach for the Cowboys. But it’s still not hard to bet on the Dallas passing game against the #24 defense in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA – which took another hit last week when top CB Adoree’ Jackson went down.

You’ll also find 2 of Prescott’s pass-catchers highlighted below. Daniel Jones above also sits as a potential correlation play, though you'll also find him in the next section (and he carries other props on Underdog). Plus, there's a Giants pass-catcher I'll mention below ... even though he didn't make our list.


QB Total Yards

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Draft Sharks projection: 274.4 yards
Underdog: 257.5
Difference: 16.9

Daniel Jones, Giants
DS: 248.1
Underdog: 236.5
Difference: 11.6

Kenny Pickett, Steelers
DS: 251.7
Underdog: 240.5
Difference: 11.2

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
DS: 273.2
Underdog: 262.5
Difference: 10.7

Lamar Jackson, Ravens
DS: 260.9
Underdog: 271.5
Difference: -10.6

Kirk Cousins, Vikings
DS: 240.7
Underdog: 256.5
Difference: -15.8

Jalen Hurts, Eagles
DS: 254.5
Underdog: 290.5
Difference: -36

A gap that large between projection and market for Hurts is enough to make you wonder if we’re too low. But he has gone 3 straight games without reaching 290 total yards, including less than 200 yards passing each of the past 2 weeks. Hurts’ 86 rushing yards almost got him to that level against the Colts. But he also tied his 2nd largest carry total of the season in that game, finishing with 7+ more attempts and 58+ more yards than in any of his previous 4 outings.


Receiving

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
Draft Sharks projection: 81 yards
Underdog: 69.5
Difference: 11.5

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
DS: 97.9
Underdog: 88.5
Difference: 9.4

Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys
DS: 46.7
Underdog: 37.5
Difference: 9.2

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
DS: 72.8
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: 8.3

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
DS: 70.4
Underdog: 62.5
Difference: 7.9

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles
DS: 54.4
Underdog: 63.5
Difference: -9.1

Michael Pittman, WR, Colts
DS: 57.1
Underdog: 66.5
Difference: -9.4

If you are taking the over on the Prescott boost, then having 2 of his pass-catchers among the top 3 here makes for a nice start to your Pick Em build. Giants WR Darius Slayton didn’t came out far enough over his market line in our Week 12 fantasy football rankings to make it into this article. But we do project him 4.8 yards over his 47.5-yard line. He has exceeded that number in 4 straight games and 5 of 7 contests in which he has gotten targets.


Rushing

Saquon Barkley, Giants
Draft Sharks projection: 85.4 yards
Underdog: 76.5
Difference: 8.9

Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
DS: 87.4
Underdog: 79.5
Difference: 7.9

Derrick Henry, Titans
DS: 98
Underdog: 105.5
Difference: -7.5

Tony Pollard, Cowboys
DS: 59.3
Underdog: 67.5
Difference: -8.2


RB Total Yards

Aaron Jones, Packers
DS: 99.6
Underdog: 81.5
Difference: 18.1

Jonathan Taylor, Colts
DS: 112.5
Underdog: 98.5
Difference: 14

This will be an interesting week for Walker. As good as he is capable of looking as a runner, the rookie sits just 33rd among 36 qualifying RBs in Football Outsiders’ 2 primary rushing-efficiency metrics for the season. He also ranks 35th in success rate, which measures how often a RB gets at least what’s expected/needed on a given run play.

But this week brings the Raiders. They check in as 1 of the league’s worst defenses by any metric and present the 3rd-weakest RB scoring matchup on the Week 12 slate.

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