Top Plays for Week 13 Underdog Pick Ems
The passers have carried us here for most of the season, but last week it was their receivers’ turn to pick up the slack.
Dak Prescott (just) made the over in a cushy Thanksgiving Day win to deliver on the Underdog bonus. He led just a 6-5 effort among our QB passing prop lines, though. Throw in 3-4 for QB total yards, and we only broke even there.
Fortunately, the guys on the other end were nearly perfect. Among the 7 posted receiving prop lines, only Dalton Schultz fell short (thanks to his 2nd straight game of less than 8 yards per catch).
Overall, we tacked an 18-13 record onto this running tally in the Underdog player props:
Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Week 11: 10-8
Week 12: 18-13
This week brings us far fewer early plays to highlight. Part of that is going back to just 1 Thursday game vs. 3 on Thanksgiving. Another factor is limiting our receiving targets, which you can read about below.
As usual, you can find plenty of early QBs to target. And that remains our most successful area to date. Of course, you should continue to reference our Week 13 fantasy football rankings throughout the week to reveal more Pick Em options.
And if you’re new to Underdog, hit the graphic below for a 100% deposit match.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Draft Sharks projection: 284.2 yards
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
Jared Goff, Lions
Geno Smith, Seahawks
Tom Brady, Buccaneers
Ryan Tannehill, Titans
Taylor Heinicke, Commanders
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
QB Total Yards
Daniel Jones, Giants
Draft Sharks projection: 229.1 yards
Marcus Mariota, Falcons
It feels (to me, at least) like Lawrence has shown up here pretty much every week. In reality, this is his 9th appearance (in 13 weeks). He’s gone 5-3 for us overall, but that includes hitting each of the past 3 times.
Lawrence heads into this week playing his best football of the season and facing the league’s best scoring matchup for QBs.
Goff is interesting on the other side of that, especially as a correlation if we take Lawrence’s over. (The more points the Jaguars score, the more Goff will likely need to throw.) He topped that 230.5 line last Thursday against Buffalo, 2 weeks before at Chicago and in 6 of 11 games this season. Detroit sits as a 1.5-point underdog in most places right now. For the year, Goff has averaged 36 pass attempts across 7 losses, compared with 28 per game in 4 victories.
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
Draft Sharks projection: 58 yards
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
DS: 61 yards
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
This section is light because I’ve been working with 7 yards as the cutoff above or below the market line all year. At WR, 7 more players would show up if we moved that to 5 yards. But I’m not changing the format in Week 13. Jaylen Waddle (under 73.5) and CeeDee Lamb (under 79.5) are the only 2 who come in 6+ yards above or below market – and I honestly don’t think I’d bet either of them. Both face talented defenses (49ers and Colts, respectively), but also defenses that play the run tougher than the pass. That could boost passing volume.
Others in the +/- 5-yard range include: Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, Isaiah McKenzie and Courtland Sutton (over); and Tyreek Hill (under). Compare additional Underdog lines with our WR, TE and even RB rankings throughout the week for more potential targets.
Nick Chubb, Browns
Draft Sharks projection: 109.8 yards
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Devin Singletary, Bills
Miles Sanders, Eagles
That’s a robust projection for Chubb, but he gets the league’s 3rd-worst RB defense this week. And he’s coming off a game that saw him rack up 26 carries vs. just 5 for Kareem Hunt. Expect the market line to rise for a guy who is averaging 94.5 rushing yards per game for the season.
Stevenson’s line also looks worth jumping on. Damien Harris is expected to miss Thursday night’s game. That doesn’t make Stevenson automatic here. He went 19-76 and 15-60 rushing in the 2 previous games Harris missed this year. But the 2nd came against a tough Colts run D. Buffalo still rates tough against the run for the year but has allowed 5.0 yards per rush to RBs over the past 5 weeks.