Show Navigation
Show Menu

DFS

Top Plays for Week 13 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 9:44am EST 11/30/22


The passers have carried us here for most of the season, but last week it was their receivers’ turn to pick up the slack.

Dak Prescott (just) made the over in a cushy Thanksgiving Day win to deliver on the Underdog bonus. He led just a 6-5 effort among our QB passing prop lines, though. Throw in 3-4 for QB total yards, and we only broke even there.

Fortunately, the guys on the other end were nearly perfect. Among the 7 posted receiving prop lines, only Dalton Schultz fell short (thanks to his 2nd straight game of less than 8 yards per catch).

Overall, we tacked an 18-13 record onto this running tally in the Underdog player props:

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Week 11: 10-8
Week 12: 18-13
Overall: 159-105

This week brings us far fewer early plays to highlight. Part of that is going back to just 1 Thursday game vs. 3 on Thanksgiving. Another factor is limiting our receiving targets, which you can read about below.

As usual, you can find plenty of early QBs to target. And that remains our most successful area to date. Of course, you should continue to reference our Week 13 fantasy football rankings throughout the week to reveal more Pick Em options.

And if you’re new to Underdog, hit the graphic below for a 100% deposit match.


Passing

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Draft Sharks projection: 284.2 yards
Underdog: 260.5
Difference: 23.7

Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
DS: 260.8
Underdog: 243.5
Difference: 17.3

Jared Goff, Lions
DS: 243.6
Underdog: 230.5
Difference: 13.1

Geno Smith, Seahawks
DS: 258
Underdog: 247.5
Difference: 10.5

Tom Brady, Buccaneers
DS: 255
Underdog: 270.5
Difference: -15.5

Ryan Tannehill, Titans
DS: 197.6
Underdog: 213.5
Difference: -15.9

Taylor Heinicke, Commanders
DS: 193.3
Underdog: 210.5
Difference: -17.2

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
DS: 260.5
Underdog: 280.5
Difference: -20

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
DS: 232.3
Underdog: 257.5
Difference: -25.2


QB Total Yards

Daniel Jones, Giants
Draft Sharks projection: 229.1 yards
Underdog: 240.5
Difference: -11.4

Marcus Mariota, Falcons
DS: 195.7
Underdog: 211.5
Difference: -15.8

It feels (to me, at least) like Lawrence has shown up here pretty much every week. In reality, this is his 9th appearance (in 13 weeks). He’s gone 5-3 for us overall, but that includes hitting each of the past 3 times.

Lawrence heads into this week playing his best football of the season and facing the league’s best scoring matchup for QBs.

Goff is interesting on the other side of that, especially as a correlation if we take Lawrence’s over. (The more points the Jaguars score, the more Goff will likely need to throw.) He topped that 230.5 line last Thursday against Buffalo, 2 weeks before at Chicago and in 6 of 11 games this season. Detroit sits as a 1.5-point underdog in most places right now. For the year, Goff has averaged 36 pass attempts across 7 losses, compared with 28 per game in 4 victories.


Receiving

Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
Draft Sharks projection: 58 yards
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 7.5

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
DS: 61 yards
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: -7.5

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
DS: 64
Underdog: 81.5
Difference: -17.5

This section is light because I’ve been working with 7 yards as the cutoff above or below the market line all year. At WR, 7 more players would show up if we moved that to 5 yards. But I’m not changing the format in Week 13. Jaylen Waddle (under 73.5) and CeeDee Lamb (under 79.5) are the only 2 who come in 6+ yards above or below market – and I honestly don’t think I’d bet either of them. Both face talented defenses (49ers and Colts, respectively), but also defenses that play the run tougher than the pass. That could boost passing volume.

Others in the +/- 5-yard range include: Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, Isaiah McKenzie and Courtland Sutton (over); and Tyreek Hill (under). Compare additional Underdog lines with our WR, TE and even RB rankings throughout the week for more potential targets.


Rushing

Nick Chubb, Browns
Draft Sharks projection: 109.8 yards
Underdog: 91.5
Difference: 18.3

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
DS: 72.8
Underdog: 63.5
Difference: 9.3

Devin Singletary, Bills
DS: 45.5
Underdog: 53.5
Difference: -8

Miles Sanders, Eagles
DS: 51.5
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: -14

That’s a robust projection for Chubb, but he gets the league’s 3rd-worst RB defense this week. And he’s coming off a game that saw him rack up 26 carries vs. just 5 for Kareem Hunt. Expect the market line to rise for a guy who is averaging 94.5 rushing yards per game for the season.

Stevenson’s line also looks worth jumping on. Damien Harris is expected to miss Thursday night’s game. That doesn’t make Stevenson automatic here. He went 19-76 and 15-60 rushing in the 2 previous games Harris missed this year. But the 2nd came against a tough Colts run D. Buffalo still rates tough against the run for the year but has allowed 5.0 yards per rush to RBs over the past 5 weeks.

Related Fantasy Football

Dynasty Trades Podcast: QBs to Buy and Sell

Dynasty Trades Podcast: QBs to Buy and Sell

3:11pm EST 1/24/23

What should you do with Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and some other key QBs on the dynasty league trade market this offseason?

Read More »
Podcast: Underdog Battle Royale Draft Tips for NFL Divisional Round

Podcast: Underdog Battle Royale Draft Tips for NFL Divisional Round

3:28pm EST 1/20/23

Draft a QB early? Fade Saquon Barkley? Chase or avoid stacks? It's a different kinda DFS week, but we're drafting Battle Royales and trying to help you crack the code ...

Read More »
Podcast: Divisional Round DFS Top Plays

Podcast: Divisional Round DFS Top Plays

2:45pm EST 1/20/23

Are you playing cash games or large-field tournaments on DraftKings and/or FanDuel this week? We're running through our top plays, fades and values -- with help from the Draft Sharks projections and Lineup Generator.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentDivisional Round FanDuel Picks

Divisional Round FanDuel Picks

1:54pm EST 1/20/23

Targets at each position for the FanDuel Divisional Round slate.

Read More »
Top Plays for Divisional Round Underdog Pick Ems

Top Plays for Divisional Round Underdog Pick Ems

11:18pm EST 1/19/23

Can Week 2 of the NFL playoffs possibly deliver as much offense? Our fantasy football projections don't seem to think so ...

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWild Card Round FanDuel Targets

Wild Card Round FanDuel Targets

9:20pm EST 1/13/23

Targets at each position for the FanDuel Wild Card slate.

Read More »
Top Plays for Wild Card Weekend Underdog Pick Ems

Top Plays for Wild Card Weekend Underdog Pick Ems

11:27am EST 1/11/23

Justin Jefferson heads a LOADED slate of player prop picks for the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs.

Read More »
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy

Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?

Check out thisleague-winning info

2022 Draft Package Now - Sept 15th

$39

Get Instant Access
2022 In-Season Package Sept 5th - Mar 7th

$39

Get Access Sept. 5th
2022 DFS Package Sept 5th - Mar 7th

$49

Get Access Sept. 5th
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual auto-renew
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
Live-Draft Sync Included Live-Draft Sync Live-Draft Sync Live-Draft Sync Included Live-Draft Sync
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Tool Included Mock Draft Tool Mock Draft Tool Mock Draft Tool Included Mock Draft Tool
Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Included Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Included Round-by-Round Draft Strategies
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Daily Fantasy Advice Daily Fantasy Advice Daily Fantasy Advice Included Daily Fantasy Advice Included Daily Fantasy Advice
Personalized Email Advice Personalized Email Advice Personalized Email Advice Included Personalized Email Advice Included Personalized Email Advice
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access
Draft Sharks App
All–Access Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept. 5th Get Access Sept. 5th Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play