Top Plays for Week 15 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 12:57pm EST 12/14/22

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Injuries and what the heck is going on with the Cowboys …

Those might not be the 2 biggest storylines of Week 14, but they were certainly up there. And they affected our Pick Ems.

Injuries knocked out 3 of the 19 players highlighted in this space last week: Kenny Pickett, Tee Higgins (thanks, Bengals) and Rhamondre Stevenson. The rest went 8-8.

I blame the Cowboys for keeping us short of .500, because 2 of those misses were Dallas WRs. While they were struggling to escape a terrible Texans team, CeeDee Lamb was busy falling short of 69.5 yards and Michael Gallup was coming thisclose to hitting his mark.

Sure, the Houston matchup has been limiting WRs all season. But 85 yards for Noah Brown vs. 33 for Lamb, on identical target counts? Come on.

Gallup matched them at 6 targets as well, catching just 2 for 40 yards. (We had him over 40.5.) All while TE Dalton Schultz led the way with 10 looks and the backfield split another 10.

We’ll have to try not to let last week bias us too much, though, because those Cowboys are showing back up this week. This time brings a Jaguars matchup that has been much more favorable to opponent passing.

We’ll get to all that in a few minutes. First, here’s the weekly tally (minus injured players) …

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Week 11: 10-8
Week 12: 18-13
Week 13: 11-6
Week 14: 8-8
Overall: 178-119

Tough week. But, as you can see, just the 2nd time all year we haven’t gone over .500 with these picks.

This week – with all the byes done – delivers us more highlighted players than any other week so far: 37. That’s 6 more than any other week (in case you don’t feel like adding the numbers above).

That makes this a great time to jump in and play, if you haven’t before. Hit this graphic, and Underdog will double your initial deposit …

We’re particularly rich in rushing lines this week. The passing unders also seemed especially bountiful. So I checked. And yes, this week’s 7 passing unders is the most this season.

The numbers have been trending up in that area, though. I included any QBs whose Draft Sharks passing projection sits 10 yards above or below his Underdog yardage line as of Wednesday morning. Within that, we had only 2 total unders show up over the 1st 4 weeks. Since Week 5, though, we’ve only had 1 more week with a 0 in that category. And each of the past 6 weeks have included 3+ unders.

You might want to be careful of that particular group, though. We’re just 17-17 on passing unders featured in this article this year. Here’s how we’ve fared in all the featured yardage subsets …

• Passing over: 46-21
• Passing under: 17-17
• Rushing over: 20-15
• Rushing under: 8-0
• Receiving over: 39-29
• Receiving under: 19-16
• QB total yards over: 6-3
• QB total under: 13-7
• RB total yards over: 5-10
• RB total under: 5-1

As always, you’ll be able to find more top picks by checking our Week 15 fantasy football rankings as Underdog releases more lines.

For now, here are some early targets for NFL Week 15 …

Passing

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Draft Sharks: 280.8 yards
Underdog: 257.5
Difference: 23.3

Andy Dalton, Saints
DS: 232.7
Underdog: 210.5
Difference: 22.2

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
DS: 271.4
Underdog: 261.5
Difference: 9.9

Matt Ryan, Colts
DS: 236.5
Underdog: 248.5
Difference: -12

Jared Goff, Lions
DS: 239.6
Underdog: 252.5
Difference: -12.9

Ryan Tannehill, Titans
DS: 201.5
Underdog: 215.5
Difference: -14

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
DS: 236.9
Underdog: 254.5
Difference: -17.6

Justin Fields, Bears
DS: 152.5
Underdog: 170.5
Difference: -18

Mike White, Jets
DS: 248
Underdog: 269.5
Difference: -21.5

Derek Carr, Raiders
DS: 216.8
Underdog: 240.5
Difference: -23.7

I usually cut the QB-yardage props at 10 yards above or below, but I can’t leave out Tagovailoa at +9.9. Would I bet him? I’m honestly not sure as I write this. He was terrible against the Chargers on Sunday night. He threw for just 186 yards in his Week 3 meeting with the Bills. (You know, his “back injury” game.) And it’s probably gonna be cold. (Current forecast: 24 degrees.) So I’m probably out on this particular over. I’ll be curious to see whether Tagovailoa’s line moves through the week.

Interesting that we have “unders” facing each other here in the Lions-Jets game. A Vegas game total (44.5 points) that’s tied for 6th on the slate doesn’t offer much clarification.

QB Total

Daniel Jones, Giants
Draft Sharks: 223.1 yards
Underdog: 234.5
Difference: -11.4

Taylor Heinicke, Commanders
DS: 211.5
Underdog: 227.5
Difference: -16

Deshaun Watson, Browns
DS: 243.3
Underdog: 266.5
Difference: -23.3

Justin Fields, Bears
DS: 218.2
Underdog: 247.5
Difference: -29.3

If it feels like a tough week at QB as you set your lineups for the fantasy football playoffs … that’s because it is. The 2 biggest total-yard unders at QB right now belong to a pair of guys who sit inside our top 10 at the position for Week 15.

Receiving

Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
Draft Sharks: 76.5 yards
Underdog: 52.5
Difference: 24

Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
DS: 85.7
Underdog: 66.5
Difference: 19.2

Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills
DS: 51.1
Underdog: 37.5
Difference: 13.6

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
DS: 85.8
Underdog: 72.5
Difference: 13.3

Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys
DS: 49.7
Underdog: 40.5
Difference: 9.2

Cole Kmet, TE, Bears
DS: 41.9
Underdog: 33.5
Difference: 8.4

Marquise Goodwin, WR, Seahawks
DS: 32.6
Underdog: 24.5
Difference: 8.1

Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
DS: 91.5
Underdog: 83.5
Difference: 8

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
DS: 102
Underdog: 94.5
Difference: 7.5

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
DS: 61.6
Underdog: 54.5
Difference: 7.1

A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
DS: 77.5
Underdog: 70.5
Difference: 7

Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
DS: 65.5
Underdog: 58.5
Difference: 7

Michael Pittman, WR, Colts
DS: 56
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: -8.5

Mike Williams’ opening line seems to have missed either his Sunday night performance or the AFC offensive player of the week performance the Titans (facing the Chargers) allowed to Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence last week.

Rushing

Travis Etienne, Jaguars
Draft Sharks: 69.9 yards
Underdog: 51.5
Difference: 18.4

Miles Sanders, Eagles
DS: 81.2
Underdog: 69.5
Difference: 11.7

David Montgomery, Bears
DS: 66.7
Underdog: 55.5
Difference: 11.2

Brian Robinson, Commanders
DS: 75.8
Underdog: 66.5
Difference: 9.3

Derrick Henry, Titans
DS: 93.5
Underdog: 100.5
Difference: -7

After we got the Henry rebound last week, I’m not betting against him reaching 100 yards this week against a Chargers defense allowing 5.5 yards per rush to RBs for the year.

RB Total Yards

Najee Harris, Steelers
Draft Sharks: 86.6 yards
Underdog: 69.5
Difference: 17.1

David Montgomery, Bears
DS: 86.9
Underdog: 70.5
Difference: 16.4

Alvin Kamara, Saints
DS: 87.8
Underdog: 78.5
Difference: 9.3

Austin Ekeler, Chargers
DS: 84.5
Underdog: 95.5
Difference: -11

Saquon Barkley, Giants
DS: 71.3
Underdog: 86.5
Difference: -15.2

Harris is a little tough because of his wide variations lately. But his 2 down games among the past 3 have come against tougher run defenses for Indy and Baltimore. His other 3 contests since the bye have all found him rushing for 86+. Harris has also seen his receiving role diminish, so it might be worth waiting for his rushing line to show up here and pursuing that instead of his total yards.