Show Navigation
Show Menu

Top Plays for Week 15 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 12:57pm EST 12/14/22


Injuries and what the heck is going on with the Cowboys …

Those might not be the 2 biggest storylines of Week 14, but they were certainly up there. And they affected our Pick Ems.

Injuries knocked out 3 of the 19 players highlighted in this space last week: Kenny Pickett, Tee Higgins (thanks, Bengals) and Rhamondre Stevenson. The rest went 8-8.

I blame the Cowboys for keeping us short of .500, because 2 of those misses were Dallas WRs. While they were struggling to escape a terrible Texans team, CeeDee Lamb was busy falling short of 69.5 yards and Michael Gallup was coming thisclose to hitting his mark.

Sure, the Houston matchup has been limiting WRs all season. But 85 yards for Noah Brown vs. 33 for Lamb, on identical target counts? Come on.

Gallup matched them at 6 targets as well, catching just 2 for 40 yards. (We had him over 40.5.) All while TE Dalton Schultz led the way with 10 looks and the backfield split another 10.

We’ll have to try not to let last week bias us too much, though, because those Cowboys are showing back up this week. This time brings a Jaguars matchup that has been much more favorable to opponent passing.

We’ll get to all that in a few minutes. First, here’s the weekly tally (minus injured players) …

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Week 11: 10-8
Week 12: 18-13
Week 13: 11-6
Week 14: 8-8
Overall: 178-119

Tough week. But, as you can see, just the 2nd time all year we haven’t gone over .500 with these picks.

This week – with all the byes done – delivers us more highlighted players than any other week so far: 37. That’s 6 more than any other week (in case you don’t feel like adding the numbers above).

That makes this a great time to jump in and play, if you haven’t before. Hit this graphic, and Underdog will double your initial deposit …

We’re particularly rich in rushing lines this week. The passing unders also seemed especially bountiful. So I checked. And yes, this week’s 7 passing unders is the most this season.

The numbers have been trending up in that area, though. I included any QBs whose Draft Sharks passing projection sits 10 yards above or below his Underdog yardage line as of Wednesday morning. Within that, we had only 2 total unders show up over the 1st 4 weeks. Since Week 5, though, we’ve only had 1 more week with a 0 in that category. And each of the past 6 weeks have included 3+ unders.

You might want to be careful of that particular group, though. We’re just 17-17 on passing unders featured in this article this year. Here’s how we’ve fared in all the featured yardage subsets …

  • Passing over: 46-21
  • Passing under: 17-17
  • Rushing over: 20-15
  • Rushing under: 8-0
  • Receiving over: 39-29
  • Receiving under: 19-16
  • QB total yards over: 6-3
  • QB total under: 13-7
  • RB total yards over: 5-10
  • RB total under: 5-1

As always, you’ll be able to find more top picks by checking our Week 15 fantasy football rankings as Underdog releases more lines.

For now, here are some early targets for NFL Week 15 …


Passing

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Draft Sharks: 280.8 yards
Underdog: 257.5
Difference: 23.3

Andy Dalton, Saints
DS: 232.7
Underdog: 210.5
Difference: 22.2

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
DS: 271.4
Underdog: 261.5
Difference: 9.9

Matt Ryan, Colts
DS: 236.5
Underdog: 248.5
Difference: -12

Jared Goff, Lions
DS: 239.6
Underdog: 252.5
Difference: -12.9

Ryan Tannehill, Titans
DS: 201.5
Underdog: 215.5
Difference: -14

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
DS: 236.9
Underdog: 254.5
Difference: -17.6

Justin Fields, Bears
DS: 152.5
Underdog: 170.5
Difference: -18

Mike White, Jets
DS: 248
Underdog: 269.5
Difference: -21.5

Derek Carr, Raiders
DS: 216.8
Underdog: 240.5
Difference: -23.7

I usually cut the QB-yardage props at 10 yards above or below, but I can’t leave out Tagovailoa at +9.9. Would I bet him? I’m honestly not sure as I write this. He was terrible against the Chargers on Sunday night. He threw for just 186 yards in his Week 3 meeting with the Bills. (You know, his “back injury” game.) And it’s probably gonna be cold. (Current forecast: 24 degrees.) So I’m probably out on this particular over. I’ll be curious to see whether Tagovailoa’s line moves through the week.

Interesting that we have “unders” facing each other here in the Lions-Jets game. A Vegas game total (44.5 points) that’s tied for 6th on the slate doesn’t offer much clarification.


QB Total

Daniel Jones, Giants
Draft Sharks: 223.1 yards
Underdog: 234.5
Difference: -11.4

Taylor Heinicke, Commanders
DS: 211.5
Underdog: 227.5
Difference: -16

Deshaun Watson, Browns
DS: 243.3
Underdog: 266.5
Difference: -23.3

Justin Fields, Bears
DS: 218.2
Underdog: 247.5
Difference: -29.3

If it feels like a tough week at QB as you set your lineups for the fantasy football playoffs … that’s because it is. The 2 biggest total-yard unders at QB right now belong to a pair of guys who sit inside our top 10 at the position for Week 15.


Receiving

Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
Draft Sharks: 76.5 yards
Underdog: 52.5
Difference: 24

Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
DS: 85.7
Underdog: 66.5
Difference: 19.2

Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills
DS: 51.1
Underdog: 37.5
Difference: 13.6

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
DS: 85.8
Underdog: 72.5
Difference: 13.3

Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys
DS: 49.7
Underdog: 40.5
Difference: 9.2

Cole Kmet, TE, Bears
DS: 41.9
Underdog: 33.5
Difference: 8.4

Marquise Goodwin, WR, Seahawks
DS: 32.6
Underdog: 24.5
Difference: 8.1

Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
DS: 91.5
Underdog: 83.5
Difference: 8

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
DS: 102
Underdog: 94.5
Difference: 7.5

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
DS: 61.6
Underdog: 54.5
Difference: 7.1

A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
DS: 77.5
Underdog: 70.5
Difference: 7

Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
DS: 65.5
Underdog: 58.5
Difference: 7

Michael Pittman, WR, Colts
DS: 56
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: -8.5

Mike Williams’ opening line seems to have missed either his Sunday night performance or the AFC offensive player of the week performance the Titans (facing the Chargers) allowed to Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence last week.


Rushing

Travis Etienne, Jaguars
Draft Sharks: 69.9 yards
Underdog: 51.5
Difference: 18.4

Miles Sanders, Eagles
DS: 81.2
Underdog: 69.5
Difference: 11.7

David Montgomery, Bears
DS: 66.7
Underdog: 55.5
Difference: 11.2

Brian Robinson, Commanders
DS: 75.8
Underdog: 66.5
Difference: 9.3

Derrick Henry, Titans
DS: 93.5
Underdog: 100.5
Difference: -7

After we got the Henry rebound last week, I’m not betting against him reaching 100 yards this week against a Chargers defense allowing 5.5 yards per rush to RBs for the year.


RB Total Yards

Najee Harris, Steelers
Draft Sharks: 86.6 yards
Underdog: 69.5
Difference: 17.1

David Montgomery, Bears
DS: 86.9
Underdog: 70.5
Difference: 16.4

Alvin Kamara, Saints
DS: 87.8
Underdog: 78.5
Difference: 9.3

Austin Ekeler, Chargers
DS: 84.5
Underdog: 95.5
Difference: -11

Saquon Barkley, Giants
DS: 71.3
Underdog: 86.5
Difference: -15.2

Harris is a little tough because of his wide variations lately. But his 2 down games among the past 3 have come against tougher run defenses for Indy and Baltimore. His other 3 contests since the bye have all found him rushing for 86+. Harris has also seen his receiving role diminish, so it might be worth waiting for his rushing line to show up here and pursuing that instead of his total yards.

Related Fantasy Football

Dynasty Trade Targets (September 2023)

Dynasty Trade Targets (September 2023)

5:06pm EDT 9/21/23

The start of the NFL regular season is underway. Time to act on this early batch of dynasty trade targets before the contenders become pretenders.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 1 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Week 1 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

9:20pm EDT 9/8/23

Top DraftKings picks at every position for Week 1 cash games.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers

Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers

10:02pm EDT 9/1/23

This article will track the fantasy football risers and fallers in the Draft Sharks rankings throughout the summer. Find out who to target in your draft.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium Content11 Guys Who Could Win You a Fantasy Championship

11 Guys Who Could Win You a Fantasy Championship

3:03pm EDT 8/25/23

Each Draft Sharks analyst gives 2 guys they're targeting in drafts. The result: 11 guys who could win you a fantasy football championship (with a surprise player getting 2 votes).

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentOvervalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid (2023)

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid (2023)

9:35am EDT 8/22/23

Want to draft a championship-level fantasy football team in 2023? Avoid taking on bad values. Take a look at our list of the most overvalued players in ADP.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium Content15 Undervalued Fantasy Football Players (2023)

15 Undervalued Fantasy Football Players (2023)

1:18pm EDT 8/21/23

What's the best way to attack any fantasy football draft? Find the biggest values. Draft them. This list of 15 undervalued players does half the job for you.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Injuries – 11 Cautionary Tales for 2023

Fantasy Football Injuries – 11 Cautionary Tales for 2023

2:38pm EDT 8/17/23

Don't let fantasy football injuries ruin your season. Here's why you should be aware of the elevated risk with Christian McCaffrey and 10 other players.

Read More »
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

Draft using the best dynamic tool in the industry. Our fantasy player valuations (DMVP) change during your draft in response to...

  1. Exact league settings - direct sync
  2. Opponent and Team Needs
  3. Positional scarcity & available players
  4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

You need a dynamic cheat sheet that easily live-syncs with your draft board and adapts throughout your draft using 17 crucial indicators.

Get your Draft War Room Today
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?

Check out thisleague-winning info

2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play