Top Plays for Week 16 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 11:40am EST 12/21/22

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Week 15 proved to be the time to bet on passing “unders” in your player props.

Despite losing Jets QB Mike White from the lineup shortly after publishing last week’s article, we still had a season-high 6 passing unders highlighted. And every single one hit.

We did get a little lucky with Lions QB Jared Goff stopping a half-yard short of his 252.5 prop. But we got a taste of the unlucky elsewhere, when Dak Prescott fell 2 yards short of hitting our “over” on his 257.5 passing yards. (Keep him in mind for when we get to this week’s lines.)

Overall, it was a strong week – powered by the QB unders (including 3-1 in the total-yardage category). Our season-high 36 highlighted plays went 22-14. Here’s the season to date …

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Week 11: 10-8
Week 12: 18-13
Week 13: 11-6
Week 14: 7-9
Week 15: 22-14
Overall: 199-134

This week’s selections feature some particularly large numbers on both the over and under side of QB. We don’t find quite as many early receiving plays as last week, though Thursday night’s Jaguars-Jets game provides one-third of the receiving lines we do have.

The 27 highlighted plays for NFL Week 16 don’t reach the heights of last time, but it does still mark our 4th largest total for the season. Of course, more plays will emerge as Underdog posts more lines throughout the week. So be sure to check our up-to-date Week 16 fantasy football rankings along the way.

If you haven’t jumped into Underdog Pick Ems yet, hit the graphic below for some free money to play with.

Passing

Tom Brady, Buccaneers
Draft Sharks: 299.4 yards
Underdog: 268.5
Difference: 30.9

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
DS: 250.6
Underdog: 226.5
Difference: 24.1

Joe Burrow, Bengals
DS: 265.5
Underdog: 275.5
Difference: -10

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
DS: 273
Underdog: 283.5
Difference: -10.5

Sam Darnold, Panthers
DS: 184.9
Underdog: 195.5
Difference: -10.6

Mac Jones, Patriots
DS: 214.2
Underdog: 225.5
Difference: -11.3

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
DS: 224.1
Underdog: 257.5
Difference: -33.4

Matt Ryan, Colts
DS: 203.5
Underdog: 240.5
Difference: -37

It's possible we're a little high on Brady's yards here. But we could come significantly down from our number and still be over his early line. Brady has just 1 game with fewer than 40 pass attempts since Week 3. He has averaged 291.3 yards per game since then.

This week brings the Cardinals, who arrive as the 9th most friendly QB-scoring matchup by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. Arizona has also been among the league's most pass-encouraging defenses.

The Jets present a tough matchup for Lawrence, but his passing yards have only dipped as far as his current line 4 times in 14 games this season. To be fair, just 6 QBs have cleared 226.5 passing yards against the Jets this year.

It’s striking that the market currently gives Prescott the same passing-yardage line as he carried last week. As mentioned above, he fell a half-yard short then, despite facing the league’s #32 defense in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA. The Eagles check in 2nd-best in that category.

Since returning from his thumb injury, Prescott is averaging just 246.1 yards per game – even while completing 70.2% of his passes. If Gardner Minshew starts over Jalen Hurts, then Dallas should be even less pressured to pass.

QB Total Yards

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Draft Sharks: 268.7 yards
Underdog: 241.5
Difference: 27.2

Daniel Jones, Giants
DS: 258.6
Underdog: 242.5
Difference: 16.1

Desmond Ridder, Falcons
DS: 168.4
Underdog: 182.5
Difference: -14.1

Taylor Heinicke, Commanders
DS: 202.7
Underdog: 222.5
Difference: -19.8

New Falcons QB, same situation. Marcus Mariota showed up 5 times in this space as a total-yards “under.” We went 5-0 on those picks. Ridder’s debut – against a worse defense than he’ll face this week, by the way – makes him look like a fitting heir to that throne of shame.

Receiving

Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars
Draft Sharks: 63.7
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 13.2

Zay Jones, WR, Jaguars
DS: 62.4
Underdog: 52.5
Difference: 9.9

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders
DS: 66.9
Underdog: 58.5
Difference: 8.4

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
DS: 104.2
Underdog: 96.5
Difference: 7.7

Marvin Jones, WR, Jaguars
DS: 28.1
Underdog: 20.5
Difference: 7.6

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
DS: 79.6
Underdog: 72.5
Difference: 7.1

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
DS: 67
Underdog: 75.5
Difference: -8.5

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
DS: 75.4
Underdog: 86.5
Difference: -11.1

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts
DS: 55.9
Underdog: 69.5
Difference: -13.6

We’ve had Lawrence in these articles quite a bit this year: 10 times through 15 weeks, to be exact. (This week makes #11.) We took the “over” on his yards 9 of those times, going 5-4 (plus 1-0 on the only “under”).

If you’re not comfy betting the QB vs. a tough Jets defense, then you can find three of his wideouts to take a shot on here instead. The matchups aren’t great for any of them either, though. Kirk looks like the best bet, for the combo of facing the lowest-graded of the Jets’ top 3 corners (Michael Carter II) and leading the Jags by 10 targets for the season.

Marvin Jones Jr., for what it’s worth, has tallied 22 receiving yards or fewer in 4 straight games. Getting him “right” doesn’t matter a whole lot for our Week 16 WR rankings. He sits just 23rd in PPR projection there, even with us going above market on his yardage. But you should probably pass on him if you don’t want to bet on the Jacksonville passing game on whole.

Rushing

Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
Draft Sharks: 46.9 yards
Underdog: 62.5
Difference: -15.6

RB Total Yards

Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Draft Sharks: 107.9 yards
Underdog: 94.5
Difference: 13.4

Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
DS: 86.9
Underdog: 76.5
Difference: 10.4

Najee Harris, Steelers
DS: 81.6
Underdog: 74.5
Difference: 7.1

Austin Ekeler, Chargers
DS: 82.5
Underdog: 90.5
Difference: -8

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
DS: 91.3
Underdog: 108.5
Difference: -17.2

As of this writing, there was 1 other rushing-specific line available on Underdog (Isiah Pacheco 70.5). So be on the lookout for more of those to compare with our Week 16 RB rankings.

Stevenson is interesting here. We have Damien Harris projected to play this week. Stevenson has reached that yardage total 3 times this year in games that included Harris … each of the 3 times his backfield mate has left early with injuries. Stevenson has averaged 74.7 total yards in the 6 full games he has shared with Harris.

Ekeler, by the way, lands in the total-yards “under” category for the 3rd straight week and 4th time this season. We went 2-1 on his 1st 3 listings.