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Top Plays for Week 17 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 1:57pm EST 12/28/22

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NFL Week 16 looked like it would be challenging for QBs, with all the cold temps and wind challenging passing conditions. But did we overrate the impact?

It wasn’t all about weather, but we did have 5 passing unders in last week’s plays and all missed. Of course, that was 1 fewer than we posted the week before. And all 6 of the Week 15 passing unders hit.

Whatever the particular motivations, you’ll find fewer QB “under” calls this time around.

Fortunately, the Week 16 picks still came out on top overall by going over .500 in every other category. With just 2 full NFL slates left, this seems like a good time to update the season numbers by category:

Passing over: 48-24
Passing under: 23-22
Rushing over: 22-17
Rushing under: 9-1
Receiving over: 48-38
Receiving under: 22-17
QB-total over: 8-3
QB under: 17-9
RB-total over: 10-11
RB under: 7-3

Overall, we have now gone over 200 correct picks for the season – after coming soclose last time around:

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 13-7
Week 10: 17-14
Week 11: 10-8
Week 12: 18-13
Week 13: 11-6
Week 14: 7-9
Week 15: 22-14
Week 16: 15-11
Overall: 214-145

Now let’s get to this week’s highlighted early plays. We only have 17 so far, down quite a bit vs. both Week 16 and Week 15. But it’s also right in line with the previous 2 weeks. So the biggest difference is likely moving the main slate back to Sunday this week.

Of course, plenty more options will emerge as Underdog posts more player props. So keep comparing those numbers with our Week 17 fantasy football rankings to uncover your best bets.

(If you haven’t played Underdog Pick Ems yet, just click here to get a full match on your 1st deposit, up to $100.)

It’s worth noting that at least a couple of last week’s Wednesday plays wouldn’t have been highlighted picks by the time their game rolled around. We were still a little high on the receiving yards for Jaguars WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, but our final numbers – adjusted for the nasty forecast – would have been low enough to keep both from making it into this article.

Consider that a mark in favor of waiting to play lines on games that have a significant lingering question, whether it be key injuries, weather, a QB decision or anything else.

Passing

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Draft Sharks projection: 291.9 yards
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: 46.4

Jared Goff, Lions
DS: 269.4
Underdog: 246.5
Difference: 22.9

Brock Purdy, 49ers
DS: 238.9
Underdog: 220.5
Difference: 18.4

Derek Carr, Raiders
DS: 209.6
Underdog: 227.5
Difference: -17.9

Geno Smith, Seahawks
DS: 223.7
Underdog: 243.5
Difference: -19.8

QB Total Yards

Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Draft Sharks projection: 308.3 yards
Underdog: 259.5
Difference: 48.8

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
DS: 332.9
Underdog: 310.5
Difference: 22.4

Deshaun Watson, Browns
DS: 228.7
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: -16.8

I’ll be honest: I’d bet the unders on our current projections for Prescott -- only because I'm not sure how much these Cowboys continue to throw if they jump out to a big lead on a struggling Titans team. But you could hold that belief and still easily take his overs on Underdog.

The Dallas QB has taken his passing yardage alone over Underdog’s current total-yards line in 5 of the past 7 games. I actually paused writing this up for 2 minutes so that I could go get Prescott and CeeDee Lamb (check below) before their lines moved.

The biggest challenge there is that there are no Titans listed as of this writing for your correlation plays. So I combined the Cowboys with our top rushing option below.

Receiving

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
Draft Sharks projection: 88.3 yards
Underdog: 73.5
Difference: 14.8

Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys
DS: 45.9
Underdog: 31.5
Difference: 14.4

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots
DS: 56.6
Underdog: 47.5
Difference: 9.1

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
DS: 82.6
Underdog: 74.5
Difference: 8.1

Similar to Prescott, Gallup is tough to bet on to reach the yardage we’re giving him here. He has reached 46 yards just twice in 12 games this season. But he has gone for 32+ yards 7 times, including 2 of the past 3 weeks. So you can bet on him having a meh week and still easily beating his Underdog line.

Rushing

Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
Draft Sharks projection: 85.1
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: 20.6

Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
DS: 71.4
Underdog: 62.5
Difference: 8.9

RB Total Yards

David Montgomery, Bears
Draft Sharks projection: 83.6 yards
Underdog: 72.5
Difference: 11.1

James Conner, Cardinals
DS: 103.2
Underdog: 92.5
Difference: 10.7

Dalvin Cook, Vikings
DS: 103.6
Underdog: 94.5
Difference: 9.1

We hit on Robinson as a rushing under last week against the 49ers, and he looked like a pretty easy bet for that matchup. For some reason, the early market expected just as much from him on the ground against the league’s best defense as it does this week against 1 of the worst.

Well, the rookie got the carries last week (22), even when it wasn’t working. He went way over 64.5 yards in 3 straight superior matchups before that. So let’s happily take Robinson vs. Cleveland before his market moves. (And yeah, I don’t care about the QB switch.)