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Top Plays for Week 8 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 11:40am EDT 10/26/22


If you played our Week 7 numbers, then you’re probably a little richer right now …

Among the 26 selections in that article, 18 came out as winners. Two others left early with injuries. Actually, it was 3, but Allen Lazard went over his yardage prop before leaving. Breece Hall, meanwhile, was clearly on his way to going over. He ran for 72 yards on just 4 attempts before busting his ACL.

After a rough Week 6 for the passing numbers, we got back to crushing at QB last week. Five of the 7 QBs listed for passing props hit. Another 3 of 4 hit in the total yards section.

This week, we see the market trying to reset numbers on some of those QBs. But there are still some repeat targets in that pool. One particular QB comes in with a lower passing line this week than the one he cleared for us on Sunday. And that marked the 2nd straight week he hit the over for us.

Overall, this week’s group doesn’t hold nearly as many early targets as last Wednesday’s version. But you’ll surely find more in our Week 8 rankings pages as more lines get posted.

Before we get to the Week 8 recommendations, let’s check the weekly scorecard …

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Week 7: 18-6
Overall: 92-56



Passing

Jared Goff, Lions
Draft Sharks projection: 278.6 yards
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: 33.1

P.J. Walker, Panthers
DS: 196.1
Underdog: 175.5
Difference: 20.6

Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
DS: 249.6
Underdog: 230.5
Difference: 19.1

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
DS: 239.5
Underdog: 220.5
Difference: 19

Hey, what could possibly be comfier than betting overs on Jared Goff, P.J. Walker and Jimmy Garoppolo in the same week?

Jimmy G is the aforementioned QB who hit the over for us each of the past 2 weeks, though. And he's now gone over this week's number in 4 straight games. That included the 1st meeting with the Rams, a game his team won by 15.

Walker and the Panthers shocked everyone last week. That's led some to wonder in the Draft Sharks Discord whether he makes sense as a Week 8 fantasy starter.

I wouldn't go that far in most cases. Walker still finished just 15th in a low-scoring QB week, and just barely got over this week's yardage line. But he did beat it on just 22 pass attempts against a better defense than the one he'll face this Sunday. Atlanta hits the weekend as the friendliest scoring matchup for QBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

So play Walker in a Pick Em or 3 instead of trusting your whole fantasy week to him.


QB Total Yards

Kenny Pickett, Steelers
Draft Sharks projection: 226
Underdog: 253.5
Difference: -27.5

Lamar Jackson, Ravens
DS: 249.3
Underdog: 273.5
Difference: -24.2

You'll probably never feel totally safe betting a Jackson yardage under. But he has reached this number just twice through 7 weeks, and both games included more than 100 yards rushing. He has thrown for 218 yards or less in 6 of 7 contests -- averaging 199.6 per week even with a 318-yard day against Miami mixed in. So Jackson basically has to hit his passing average and go over 70 rushing yards. He's obviously capable of doing so. But he's also coming off 3 straight bad performances for the passing offense.

Receiving

We don’t have a single pass-catcher projected 6+ yards over his Underdog prop line, among lines posted as of Wednesday morning. (Many more will obviously be added throughout the week.) So I’m gonna make like a politics discussion here and focus on the negative …

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
Draft Sharks projection: 82.1 yards
Underdog: 93.5
Difference: -11.4

Zach Ertz, TE, Cardinals
DS: 41.1
Underdog: 49.5
Difference: -8.4

Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
DS: 87.2
Underdog: 95.5
Difference: -8.3

Brandin Cooks, WR, Texans
DS: 53.9
Underdog: 61.5
Difference: -7.6

Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
DS: 64.2
Underdog: 71.5
Difference: -7.3

Not much to work with here so far. We'll see whether the upcoming lines can reveal more in the Week 8 WR rankings and TE rankings.

Rushing

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks
Draft Sharks projection: 82.8 yards
Underdog: 93.5
Difference: -10.7


RB Total Yards

Josh Jacobs, Raiders
Draft Sharks projection: 120.3
Underdog: 100.5
Difference: 19.8

Saquon Barkley, Giants
DS: 121.3
Underdog: 107.5
Difference: 13.8

Jonathan Taylor, Colts
DS: 100.9
Underdog: 109.5
Difference: -8.6

Dalvin Cook, Vikings
DS: 85.5
Underdog: 95.5
Difference: -10

Yep. The early numbers give us just 1 RB rushing mark that presents a difference of more than 4.8 yards in either direction. I can't say I'd feel great about betting a Kenneth Walker under right now, but that's why I just present the numbers instead of whittling it down to my personal favorites.

Yardage overs on Jacobs and Barkley seem more attractive right now, even with the lines now up in the triple digits. Jacobs went way over last week's line and has gone over 150 total yards in 3 straight outings (with 97 yards the week before).

Going under on Taylor and Cook will probably feel less comfy. But Taylor hasn't exceeded 91 total yards in a game since Week 1. Cook has rushed for 90+ yards in 3 of his 6 games but fallen short of 90 total yards the other 3 weeks. He was also losing receiving opportunities to Alexander Mattison before the shoulder issue that made Mattison questionable for Week 6. Even with Mattison limited in that game, Cook climbed to just a 46% route rate vs. 40% the week before.

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