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Tyler Lockett is Too Cheap in Fantasy Drafts

By Jared Smola 8:06am EDT 6/17/20

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What You Need to Know:

  • Lockett finished 13th among WRs in PPR points and 15th in non-PPR last year. He ranks top-12 across formats if we remove the 2 games immediately after his leg injury.
  • That followed a top-16 season in 2018, despite that Seahawks team finishing 32nd in pass attempts.
  • Seattle figures to remain run-leaning in 2020, but Lockett doesn’t need big volume for another WR2 season.

An injury-dampened 2019

Only a November leg injury stopped Lockett from turning in a truly massive 2019 season. He suffered such a bad contusion to his lower left leg in Week 10 that he had to be hospitalized. Lockett benefitted from a Week 11 bye and was able to get on the field come Week 12. But he didn’t look like himself, totaling just 1 catch on 5 targets for 38 yards over the next 2 games.

Compare that to his averages in his other 14 regular-season games: 5.8 catches, 73 yards and .57 TDs. Lockett’s scoring averages in those outings would have placed him 8th among WRs in PPR points and 12th in non-PPR.

In fact, we got 16 healthy games out of Lockett last year if we include the playoffs. He tallied 13 catches for 198 yards and a score in 2 playoff contests, giving him 94 catches, 1,217 yards and 9 TDs in a full season’s worth of healthy games. Those marks would have ranked 7th, 4th and 3rd among WRs.

2020 outlook

And if he had those number sitting on his final 2019 stat line, he’d likely go much higher in fantasy drafts this summer. But as of mid-June, Lockett is just WR22 in ADP, making him a strong value target.

Even including Week 12 and 13 last year, Lockett finished 13th at his position in PPR points and 15th in non-PPR. That followed 16th- and 11th-place finishes, respectively, in 2018. And that’s despite Seattle ranking 32nd and 23rd in pass attempts those 2 seasons.

OC Brian Schottenheimer, who called plays the last 2 years, is back for 2020. So we probably won’t get a big spike in passing volume. But Lockett doesn’t need it. He (amazingly) ranked just 57th among WRs in targets in 2018. He finally got closer to the volume he deserves this past year, finishing 24th at his position.

Lockett’s 110 targets and 21.3% target share from last year are good starting points for his 2020 projections. (His full-season pace jumps to 120 targets and a 22.8% share if we remove Weeks 12 and 13.) WR D.K. Metcalf figures to take a bigger piece of the pie in his 2nd season. But Seattle is thin at WR behind those 2, with Phillip Dorsett, David Moore and John Ursua next up on the depth chart. And while the TE room is deep, Greg Olsen, Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister don’t demand big target shares.

In short, expect Lockett and Metcalf to dominate targets this season. And there’s no reason to scale back Lockett’s volume when he’s truly been 1 of the most efficient WRs in the league since arriving in 2015. He ranks 3rd in catch rate and 2nd in yards per target among 93 WRs with 200+ targets over the past 5 seasons. Last year, he finished 15th in yards per target among 79 WRs with 50+ looks.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Lockett has finished as a top-16 WR across scoring formats in 2 straight seasons. And that’s despite the Seahawks ranking 32nd and 23rd in pass attempts those 2 years.

So even if Seattle doesn’t chuck it more in 2020, Lockett looks like a value at his June ADP of WR22.

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